FRIDAY FA CUP: The Striker previews Friday’s CHELSEA v ASTON VILLA match with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

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7.45pm The FA Cup Fourth Round continues on Friday night and we have a superb night on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! This is actually the best action of the Fourth Round – we are peaking too soon though before the weekend even starts. Chelsea host Aston Villa while Spurs clash with Manchester City. We should have two top quality games, and we kick off the evening with Chelsea hosting Aston Villa. Chelsea have already been involved in a big Cup game this week – they played Middlesbrough in the Carabao Cup Semi-Final on Tuesday night. They went into the second leg 1-0 down, and at 4-0 up by half-time it’s fair to say they handled that situation! We all know that Aston Villa are having a superb run in the Premier League. They sit in the Top Four at the moment, and it will be interesting to see what kind of starting XI Unai Emery goes with here. I think after the Winter Break he’ll go as strong as possible, even with the extra pressure of the Top Four race. Villa have a nice three point cushion over Spurs at the moment, and they have been playing some excellent football this season too. It has to be noted however that Villa are one of the biggest over-performing sides in the Premier League this season. Their average xG created is 1.61 but their actual goals scored average is 2.05. That’s quite the difference but you can’t knock them, Emery has them playing with so much confidence.

Chelsea have had major issues winning games this season. That’s why they sit in mid-table of the Premier League with their Top Four chances already gone. They obviously had a confidence boosting win midweek in the Carabao Cup but that came against a Championship side. They come into this game as the favourites with home advantage, but they aren’t trading odds on. The home win is 2.2 with Aston Villa 3.45 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. While there isn’t much between the sides this season looking at their stats, it’s clear that Aston Villa have been playing the better football. Their average xG created is bigger and their average xG conceded is lower. They have been better all over the pitch, the Premier League table reflects this. Chelsea have dropped a lot of points in the Premier League this season and even with some possible changes to the starting XI’s here because it’s the Cup, I really feel the 2.2 is too short on Chelsea. From a value point of view I’m happy with that lay, and I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Aston Villa at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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