97-1 THIRD IN THE IRISH NATIONAL: Daqman was on the late-finishing Sizing Coal (3rd 40-1) at 98.0 on BETDAQ for the Irish Grand National yesterday, a bet to rival his 39.0 second in last year’s Aintree Grand National and 60.0 third in 2012.
HE GOES 8-2 UP ON PRICEWISE: The place part of the bet, which we will record as 10-1 (a quarter of 40), puts him 8-2 up on Pricewise since the opening of the English Flat season, and is a warning shot for Grand National week.
THREE BANKERS UP OUT OF FOUR: Daqman also landed his Plumpton banker, Howlongisafoot (WON 5-6), his third winning banker out of four and his seventh winning nap from the last 10.
AINTREE TODAY: The Grand National myths. TOMORROW: The famous Daqman ABC Guide to the big race.
NATIONAL FALLACIES: FACTS THAT FALL DOWN
The race is a lottery for punters. NO. Not at all. When it was a tough race, professional punters loved it because so few horses had a real chance of winning.
Since alterations to the fences, better quality horses have a chance off higher weights (11st to 11st 6lb won four years running up to 2012).
There have, indeed, been winners at 100-1, 66-1 and 33-1 (twice) since 2007, but punters only have themselves to blame for ignoring their obvious stamina.
In 10 of the last 11 seasons, the winners had won or been placed at around 3m 4f, or in the Hennessy Gold Cup or Irish Grand National. This column had the 33-1 Silver Birch (2007).
Placed horses win another year. NO, it’s the other way round in the race’s recent history. Winners are often placed again. Only once since Red Alligator (1968) and L’Escargot (1975) has a horse won after being placed.
That was Amberleigh House, who scored for Team McCain in 2004 after being third to Monty’s Pass the year before.
Monty’s Pass, Hedgehunter, Comply Or Die and Don’t Push It have all been placed in recent years after winning, following the examples, going way back, of Mr What, Merryman 11, Red Rum, Corbiere, West Tip, Party Politics and Papillon, all placed after winning.
Aids, like blinkers, cheekpieces or tongue-tie, will help. NO, quite the reverse: horses with headgear regularly ‘get beat’. Double Seven (3rd), Cappa Bleu (2nd and 4th) and Black Apalachi (2nd) have all tasted defeat on the run-in since 2009.
My records show that only Comply Or Die (2008) has won in blinkers since L’Escargot in 1975, with countless aids proving fruitless in between.
You need younger horses over the easier fences. NO. It hasn’t worked out that way. The last five winners have been aged 10 (twice) and 11 (three times).
Only one eight-year-old has won since 1992 (that was Bindaree 13 years back) and no seven-year-old since the mighty Golden Miller (1934), unless you count Bogskar’s success in a war-time National (1940).
Horses aged seven (Forbra, Kellsboro’ Jack and Golden Miller) and eight (Reynoldstown and Royal Mail) won five years out of six in the 1930s but there’s never been a sequence anything like that since.
Top yards win all the time, now it’s more like a Gold Cup. NO. That’s another one that was true in the good old bad old days of Vincent O’Brien, Fred Rimell, Fred Winter and Neville Crump. But the last of those great names won it in 1976.
Since then, champions Martin Pipe, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls have scored only once apiece in 40 years. Rather look for a trainer of stamina horses, like Nigel Twiston-Davies.
Or look for a yard that can lay out a good ’un: Donald McCain, Martin Brassil, Ted Walsh, Gordon Elliott, Jimmy Mangan, David Pipe, Richard Newland, Jonjo O’Neill, Venetia Williams, Sue Smith are all on the record sheets.
Horses have to be held up to conserve their energy. NOT always. In-running comments on the last seven Nationals include:
* ‘Never far behind the leaders.’
* ‘Held up.’
* ‘Behind early; improved second circuit.’
* ’Crept into contention second circuit.’
* ‘Up there nearly all the way.’
Conclusion: Jockeyship counts most of all: the rider needs to know what kind of race the horse can run to win. Curb his enthusiasm, yes, if he’s a doubtful stayer, but it’s most important that he gets his mount jumping in a rhythm.
He must be thereabouts on the second circuit. And the jockey must remember there is still a long way to go after the elbow.
SECATEUR A CUT ABOVE THEM AT PONTEFRACT
2.30 Pontefract It’s unusual to see a Highclere Thoroughbred kept on as a gelding, so trainer-in-form John Gosden must have seen something in Secateur, and one in three of the yards runners are winning. Sir Michael Stoute (Dannyday) has his first runner of 2015.
4.00 Pontefract Five times out of six Richard Fahey and Tim Easterby have been the trainers on the scorecard in this.
Amanda Perrett is up from deepest Sussex with a Shergar Cup runner-up, Astronereus, and Sir Michael represents Newmarket. The morning market has them clear of the Yorkshire brigade but southern raiders have never won this event in its seven-year history.
Front-runners Stepping Ahead and Master Of Finance will make this a real test, which CD-winner Latenightrequest should enjoy. She’s high enough up the handicap but Jack Garritty takes off 5lb and she will have to strike early while the ground is still soft.
McCOY-WALSH CLASH IS FAIRYHOUSE FEATURE
4.25 Fairyhouse Rathpatrick has been saved up for this final, kept to a maximum of 20 furlongs until today, though the son of Oscar’s pedigree is all stamina.
The major threat to this McManus-McCoy bid for the series trophy is Pleasant Company, related on the dam’s side to Comply Or Die, and the Mullins-Walsh contender. It’s one of the last battles between McCoy and Walsh.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9; banker 10)
BET 8pts win (nap) SECATEUR (2.30 Pontefract)
BET 3pts win LATENIGHTREQUEST (4.00 Pontefract)
BET 5pts win on each PLEASANT COMPANY and RATHPATRICK (4.25 Fairyhouse)
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