CAPTAIN DAQMAN STEERS STAKING-PLAN SUCCESS: Not too far! Another day, another winner. Daqman yesterday made it 10 in six days with Captain Drake (WON 6-4). Time and again he’s played his stakes to guarantee profits large or small or nothing lost on the day. Captain Drake made absolutely sure with a 16-lengths success at Southwell.
SEE HOW THEY WON: FESTIVAL STATS AND FACTS: Cheltenham here we come! The Festival starts a week today, and Daqman plots the Day 1 stats and facts for six races.
IRISH SUPREME IN THE OPENER
1.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Supreme Novices Hurdle) Big-time future chasers often emerge from this tough hurdles test, with Douvan (2015) the last of Willie Mullins five winners. Best since then has been Altior (2017).
Ireland has won 11 out of 18, of which 13 had raced in bumpers; 18 out of the last 20 winners had scored in their prep race.
2.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Arkle Challenge Trophy) Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have won three each in the last seven years.
Last year’s winner, Footpad, won the same three races as Douvan, including the Leopardstown Arkle. Ten out of 12 Arkle heroes had already won or been placed over at least 19f.
2.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Ultima Handicap Chase) Last year I said ‘stick with horses aged seven and eight’. Sure enough, a six-year-old won it! I said favourites never win. Yep, he was favourite!
Far from abandoning them I’m even more confident of those stats now because, surely, the exception to prove the rule had a double up in the same race last year! So now we can relax and watch the stats work out again.
3.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Champion Hurdle) Horses aged six and seven are eight out of 10. It’s Henderson 4, Mullins 4 in the decade.
4.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Mares’ Hurdle) Willie Mullins has landed nine out of the last 10. Who was the intruder who dared pinch one off him? Gordon Elliott (with Apple’s Jade) but he may be tempted to bigger things with that winner this year.
5.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday (NH Challenge Cup) In the last four years this has produced a Grand National winner and second, Tiger Roll and Cause Of Causes, for Gordon Elliott. Last year’s winner? Rathvinden, who is Aintree bound for Willie Mullins.
Paul Nicholls has a shocking record: just two placed from 17 NH Chase starters. He didn’t even bother to put a player on the field last year!
PRESENT FROM EXETER LOOKS VALUE
2.45 Exeter Paul Nicholls has hit a rich vein of form which clearly he will be looking to continue this time next week and it’s hopefully not a case of peaking too soon from his perspective.
8 winners from his last 22 runners – but the one that got away was Black Corton who was sent off the 30/100 favourite at Kelso last Saturday but failed by half a length to beat Blue Flight in the Listed chase.
Nicholls has a strong chance here with Truckers Lodge who might be able to give the weight away. Lorcan Williams takes off a handy 5lb and he should find this much easier than the Grade 2 task he was set last time out at Doncaster in January when beaten 22 lengths into second by Nadaitak. The stable wasn’t firing then, like it is now and Truckers Lodge should outclass his rivals. He has winning form on both good and heavy ground so is very versatile.
Despite starting at 50/1, there didn’t appear to be much of a fluke about the way Secret Reprieve won at Chepstow last time out. The third from that race has come out again to win at Lingfield and Secret Reprieve is likely to improve further on this his third career start and looks the danger.
3.15 Exeter Nicholls also has a good chance in the second division of this race with Danny Whizzbang who made a winning debut under Rules at Hereford. It was only a narrow win however and he might prove vulnerable.
I prefer the credentials of Present Value who came right away to win well at Chepstow on his second start.
He chased home the current Supreme Novices’ favourite Al Dancer on his debut at Ffos Las and looks a good sort for trainer Evan Williams.
Truckin Away has a slightly more exposed profile but even allowing for the fact he was in Grade 2 level at Haydock last time out it was still a disappointing effort and he looks vulnerable against the improvers.
7.00 Wolverhampton Decoration Of War was well supported last time out here but had a nightmare run and wasn’t beaten far – despite only finishing sixth.
This looks a much easier task so it should hopefully only be a case of him getting the rub of the green tonight.
Top weight Confrontational didn’t show much on debut for new connections since joining from Ireland and couldn’t be backed with any confidence on that limited evidence.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 9.75pts win TRUCKERS LODGE (2.45 Exeter)
BET 17.1pts win (nap) PRESENT VALUE (3.15 Exeter)
BET 12.8pts win DECORATION OF WAR (7.00 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES
3 x 2pt win doubles (above three)
1 x 1pt win treble (above three)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
