1,140-1 BIG-RACE DOUBLE: After small but quality Christmas crackers yesterday, from which Thistlecrack and Yanworth emerged victorious at Kempton, the racing scene switches to marathon big-field handicaps for the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow and a three-miler classic at Leopardstown, in which Daqman attempts doubles at between 140-1 and 1,140-1.
COOKIES AND CRACKERS! Daqman scored with three singles and a double yesterday and had a second winner in his Fortune Cookies, as he went 7-3 up on Pricewise. His successful tips were:
WON 11-10 Thistlecrack
WON 5-4 Yanworth
WON 4-9 Bellshill
2nd 9-2 (from 7.0 w/p BETDAQ) Spiritofthegames
THREE MORE FORTUNE HUNTERS: Three more Fortune Cookies run today in a bid for selection in Daqman’s top 12 festival horses to follow:
Douvan (1.20 Leopardstown)
Marracudja (1.45 Kempton)
Peace News (1.55 Leopardstown)
TIME TO PLAY CHRISTMAS CAROLE’S..
2.40 Chepstow (Welsh Grand National) After yesterday’s Thistlecracker romp, Colin Tizzard now has the top three NH horses in training in England for prizemoney won: yesterday’s King George one-two, plus Native River, who runs off topweight here.
With the exception of Synchronised (2011), who would prove to be a Gold Cup winner, there’s been only one successful in this race carrying more than 11st since 1994.
But, in the same period, only one has been of double-figure age, which seemingly knocks out most of today’s bottomweights, among them Mountainous who completed a delayed double last year, having won it first in 2013.
Mountainous is back for more, knocking on 12, and with another 10lb in the saddle above his weight mark of a year ago. That seems like a mountain to climb although, in fact, he’s only 2lb worse off with the runner-up, Firebird Flyer, who has since won the Midlands Grand National.
Native River, runner-up in the NH Chase at Cheltenham (4m), has gone up a stone since then, a future 8lb higher than when winning the Hennessy Gold Cup (Theatre Guide behind) a month ago after a promising prep at Wetherby but able to race off the same mark today.
Runner-up Carole’s Destrier came to the Hennessy cold. It was not only his first start since April but his yard was going through a lean spell at the time.
It is noticeable that Neil Mulholland is back to form and has scored with four of seven that have been well backed in the last 10 days.
As well as Carole’s Destrier, who has won his second race back for two seasons running, the Bath trainer saddles new acquisition Goulanes, though it’s nearly three years now since that one won the Midlands Grand National.
Bishops Road (needs soft-heavy) from the Mountainous stable won the Haydock Park National Trial 11 months ago, and Native River’s stablemate, Viconte Du Noyer, won a Grade 3 at Cheltenham (3m 3f) six weeks back, his first attempt at a stamina test.
On a line to the NH Chase, the Viconte has to find a few pounds with Native River, even allowing Harry Cobden’s 3lb claim, and Vicente is well held.
Houblon des Obeaux usually goes well first time back; and Harry Topper has won after longish absences. The extra trip could be the making of Onenightinvienna. Rain is needed for Unioniste, Beg To Differ, Emperor’s Choice and Baie Des Iles (an unlikely winner at the age of five).
VERDICT: The class of Native River and Carole’s Destrier might see them through on the soundish surface, despite their weight. If there’s a surprise it could come from Onenightinvienna or the ‘hidden horse’ Goulanes.
BETDAQ VALUE: Since two from my short-list, Carole’s Destrier (10.0) and Goulanes (60.0), are from the same stable, I’ll back both, with Onenightinvienna (11.0) and Native River the next two home. Pricewise has named three but seems to have forgotten one of them, Racing Pulse ante-post.
PASS ME 19.0 ABOUT ‘HIDDEN HORSE’
3.00 Leopardstown (PP Chase) You’ll find only one winner of this carrying more than 10st 11lb since 2006, and only one winning favourite.
Ucello Gold and Folsom Blue were second and third last year, with just ounces between them now at the revised weights.
There are several contenders off the right mark but such as Peoples Park and Dromnea have hardly improved more than a pound or two since their novice days. On the other hand, Rogue Trader has leapt forward a stone this year, but steps up in trip now.
Bonny Kate misses the race after her returning third in the Troytown behind Empire Of Dirt, leaving runner-up Abolitionist, Noble Endeavour (fourth), Venitien De Mai (fifth) and Killer Miller (ninth) to carry the flag for that form.
Otago Trail galloped them into the ground in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle, and scored back to back – second leg at at Chepstow – at this time last year but is best offered 14.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
The Crafty Butcher looks meat and drink to Mulins-Walsh backers off his low mark but there’s nothing in the ‘good book’ (when with other trainers) to support a punt at a short price.
The ‘hidden horse’ is It Came To Pass, trading around 19.0, a hunter-chaser closely related to the same stable’s Gold Cup winner, Lord Windermere, and very lightly raced.
Had yet to be asked a question when fell three out in the Foxhunter at Cheltenham, and had an adequate pipeopener at Navan recently.
A BIG FORM BOOST FOR BLUE EYES
12.40 Kempton It’s Paul Nicholls 4, Alan King 3 in the decade, and those who wrote off Mister Blue Eyes (Kingy) after his defeat at Wetherby in October should check out the Graded-level hikes to the form that’s happened to the race since.
Charli Parcs looks an obvious threat but, equally, the value 5.3 about ‘Blue-eyes’ is an obvious win and place.
1.25 Chepstow Peter Bowen, who completed a hat-trick in this last year via Awaywiththegreys, saddles Court King as a CD winner of six weeks ago who has to rise in class here.
Desert Sensation also creeps into this because of penalties for two recent wins, secured with first-time application of various facial furniture. I prefer a third lightweight, Rolling Dylan, very lightly raced and never out of the first three.
Oliver Sherwood has two near the foot of the handicap but his yard is very in and out, like that of Jonjo O’Neill, whose Forthefunofit needs a transformation from first-time cheekpieces.
Shantou Bob did well on his comeback but the worry is the ‘bounce’, and he may need softer ground. Bill No Name is up in the weights but no need to tell you that the stable is flying.
A 12.5 offer on BETDAQ, Arctic Gold was destined for fences but did so well over hurdles again at Sandown that he stays hurdling with Tom Humphries again reducing his weight to a winning level (five of the last seven scorers in this have carried between 11st 3lb and 11st 10lb).
1.45 Kempton (Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase) This race, usually won by five-year-olds, produced a hat-trick of champions in Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Dodging Bullets (2011-13).
Altior’s route to the top may not be interrupted here but I’m hoping for a better run from Fortune Cookies contender, Marracudja, at a massive 12.5 on BETDAQ.
2.20 Kempton (Desert Orchid Chase) Another two-miler, but for established players a year or two on from the Wayward Lad race, has Sire De Grugy among its last three winners.
The morning market has him shaded by Special Tiara, third to Sprinter Sacre in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham and getting 10lb here. Tiara has his ground and looks a banker since, when he met Sire De Grugy in the 2015 Tingle Creek, there was threeparts of a length in it at levels.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes as advised)
BET (win 20): 5pts win and place MISTER BLUE EYES (12.40 Kempton)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 4.5pts win and place ARCTIC GOLD, and 2.5pts win (saver) ROLLING DYLAN (1.25 Chepstow)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) SPECIAL TIARA (2.20 Kempton)
TON-UP BET (win 100): 1.75pts win and place GOULANES, plus BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50) 5pts win and place on each CAROLE’S DESTRIER and ONENIGHTINVIENNA (2.40 Chepstow)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 3.75pts win and place OTAGO TRAIL, and 3pts win and place IT CAME TO PASS (3.00 Leopardstown)
DAQ MULTIPLES BIG-RACE HIT: 6 x 1pt win doubles Carole’s Destrier, Goulanes and Onenightinvienna(2.40 Chepstow) with Otago Trail and It Came To Pass (3.00 Leopardstown).
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