DELVE DEEP TO FIND SOME OF THE 210 BETDAQ WINNERS: Daqman is looking for a share in 210 winners in a deluge of meetings during the rest of this week. He’ll be honing his trading skills in advance of the big June festivals of Epsom Derby and Royal Ascot. Join him in the value hunt; try to find false favourites and avoid the 1,890 losers… the what? HOW MANY?
TOMORROW: IT’S THE DERBY NEXT WEEK: Secrets of the great Epsom race, and Daqman’s bid for a fourth Classic winner this Spring..
STARING 1,890 LOSERS IN THE FACE
I usually try to get a break before the Derby. But there are 35 meetings left this week (repeat 35) in England and Ireland.
There are two Group-3 stakes races at Sandown on Thursday night and two at Haydock on Saturday; that’s your lot. So it’s quantity not quality before next week’s Derby and Oaks, and then follows Royal Ascot.
At six races per meeting (at least) and a guesstimate of 10 horses per race (at least), we could have a minimum of 35 x 6 x 9 losers.
That’s 1,890. How to find even a small share of the 210 winners? Check out on a daily basis:
➡️ Trainers By which I mean, trainers in form; trainers who specialise at the meeting; trainers with a ‘hidden horse’ or two prepared to take in a venue where they are rarely seen.
➡️ Jockeys Those following a horse or a trainer who does well for them, or who have unusual bookings.
➡️ Horses with a touch of class who have to be dropped from all idea of the dizzy heights of Epsom and Ascot but who can still make their presence felt at these lesser meetings.
➡️ Form A weights concession, a return to their best trip; a going or draw advantage. It’s hard work; not easy: but better than wasting your hard-earned before the big races.
➡️ Market Today and tomorrow I’m trying three ideas a day, staking to get one winner for a profit or break even. You can do better.
You have the advantage of following the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE markets throughout the morning and into the afternoon, up to the ‘off’ and right to the winning post.
In advance of the big meetings, you can try out all the trading devices: back, lay, back and lay.. Take an early interest in something you think might close; cover yourself with the insurance of a small bet on a market mover.
➡️ Trading Tips Pick a race. Price up your own market before you start. Find an edge; practise trading in running.. Go to the BETDAQ advice in Trading Tips and resolve to be a winner now.
THE FIRST BET ON YOUR ACCOUNT..
⭕ 4.50 Bangor Lanarkshire trainer Keith Dalgleish has eight runners today in his home country at Musselburgh, and two at Newcastle, not far south of the border, on the Geordie shore.
But he has just the one making a 450-mile round trip to Bangor in Welsh Wales, and he’s booked the 2019-20 champion jumps jockey, Brian Hughes, for First Account, owned by Straightline Bloodstock, which is Newcastle based.
First Account won two of its three races last year at Musselburgh and his sole placed start this year was at Newcastle. In fact, he’s never been further south than Carlisle and Newcastle since he joined Dalgleish.
His success so far has brought figures over hurdles of 3213 and he switches from fences back to the smaller obstacles today.
The danger is Butlers Brief, going for a hat-trick under Nick Scholfield but 19lb higher than for his last win on soft ground.
BETDAQ value 4.9 First Account
MARK THE TIDE AS SEQUENCE HORSE
⭕ 5.35 Lingfield Remember my message about not backing last-time winners in low-class races? The exceptions I gave you were ‘unless it’s just found form that could be anticipated in earlier races, is with a top stable in form; is well drawn; and would have to back-pedal on its overall CV.’ I should have added ‘unless trained by Sir Mark Prescott.’
Sir Mark has a history of suddenly producing a horse to win off a low mark; then winning with it again..and again.. and again.
The Prescott sequence-horses are legendary. They seem to shrug off weight rises and defy different ground, mixing AW with turf.
The Tide Turns could be one of them. He didn’t do much last term, but prompted this comment in the Racing Post after an outing over 7f: ‘Doesn’t do anything in a hurry and is one for middle distances next year.’
Sure enough, when he reappeared at Wolverhampton a week ago, his fortune turned and ‘Tide’ came in, winning comfortably over 1m 4f.
Still being described as ‘green’ by race-readers that day, which suggests that, in his usual manner with sequence horses, Sir Mark has left plenty to work on.
BETDAQ value 2.8 The Tide Turns
PETER STILL HAS EDGE ON NAGANO
⭕ 6.55 Newcastle This Tapeta track has been an enormous success, witness the star stables on show here tonight: John (and Thady) Gosden, Mark Johnston, Hugo Palmer, Sir Michael Stoute, Roger Varian.. And that’s just in the opener!
In fact, Andrew Balding (42% this year) and Team Gosden (32% in five years) are leading trainers on winners-to-runners.
Balding saddles three this evening and clashes with Gosden in this novice event. He sends out the improving Regal Vega, while Peter The Great brings the Wood Ditton form to the table.
Peter The Great (Team Gosden) won the Wood Ditton but the third horse home, Nagano – just over a length behind that day – looks threatening.
The trip was on the short side for Nagano, particularly since he was slow away and also hampered during the race.
He has won since, stepped up from a mile to 10 furlongs, going clear at Nottingham., though he again took some stoking up.
What just sways me is Peter The Great’s breeding, by New Approach out of a Giant’s Causeway mare, so probably even better suited by the trip.
BETDAQ value 2.5 Peter The Great
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.50 Bangor (win 20)
BET 5pts win FIRST ACCOUNT
5.35 Lingfield (win 20, nap)
BET 11pts win THE TIDE TURNS
6.55 Newcastle (win 15)
BET 10pts win PETER THE GREAT
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
