LOOKING FOR VALUE ON BETDAQ: Headlines about star horses put in the glare of the headlights often car-crash and the ‘unbeatable’ animals let you down. The answer for punters is to ignore the odds-on obvious and somehow locate the value. That’s the aim. Easier said than done; but first lesson, says Daqman, is ‘only believe what you see.’
TODAY: Daqman keeps the stakes low but spots some Betdaq value with a WIN 20 stake.
CHAMP? ONLY BELIEVE WHAT YOU SEE
‘He’s world champion’ and ‘He’s unbeatable!’ That’s what ‘everybody’ headlined about Baaeed. But horses make fools of men and he wasn’t even placed at 4-1 on for his farewell appearance.
As a young man, and foolish as the rest of them, I finally learned to keep headlines like that on my office wall to knock it into my head that nothing is ‘unbeatable’.
So it was that, though Baaeed was a Fortune Cookie in my column, and made a profit over a string of wins, I also nominated the 10-1 winner Bay Bridge as the value of the race.
The toughest lesson in betting – worse in tipping – is to bet the value not the horse; ‘worse in tipping’ because a) you don’t want to look a complete fool; only a partial one! b) you are several hours away from the race so both the weather and the market can overtake you.
I was reminded of those cuttings on my wall when sifting through some old copies of the trade paper from earlier in the year.
From those copies, here’s a headline to stick on the wall before you get deeply involved in the new Jumps season. It’s January 29; 2022: ‘Nicky Henderson hotpots: Is it worth opposing Champ and Chantry House?’
An answer, as a sub-heading, was given under the explanation that Henderson and J P McManus had those two as odds-on favourites on Cheltenham Trials Day. The answer was: ‘No – go for it with class acts.’
With it, the corollary: ‘Champ is so talented, when he’s right he might give Honeysuckle a race; wouldn’t be out of place in a Gold Cup.’
The result: Champ was beaten at 15-8 on, more than three lengths, by the veteran Paisley Park. And has never won another race! Not a one.
Chantry House ‘made mighty hard work’ of winning in first-time cheekpieces at 6-5 on (quote unquote Raceform), but pulled up in the Gold Cup and has not been seen since.
So I winced when, yesterday morning, I saw in the stable-tour spot in the same paper the heading ‘He belongs at the top and is in tremendous order – I can’t stress that enough.’ Constitution Hill, I shouldn’t wonder, thought I; another ‘unbeatable.’
No! It’s Henderson again. Talking about Chantry House again! Right underneath a piece about the now-10-years-old Champ ‘looking magnificent.’
Bringing this right up to the minute, I heard Megan Nicholls tell the ITV audience on Sunday that her pick for one to follow from Ditcheat is Henri The Second.
Henri The Second, who has never jumped a hurdle in public, is running today in the 12.55 at Chepstow. Likely odds on.
And that reminds me of another racing rule, an adage for which William Hill, himself, was famous: ‘Only believe what you see with your own eyes.’
KEPLERIAN APPEALS MORE
⭕ 3.10 Chepstow Keplerian heads the Betdaq Betting Exchange market but he’s a leap of faith project on his first start for Fergal O’Brien.
He’s finished fourth in his last three races but been beaten an aggregate of 85 lengths and a hard favourite to fancy with his 240 day absence thrown in.
Sevenofus has mainly run on better ground and whilst consistent will need the first time cheekpieces to improve her a few pounds to get involved here.
A better value alternative to both might be Karakoram who was a course and distance winner back in March and shaped well enough on his first start this season earlier in the month when fourth at Warwick. He should be better for that spin and gets his ground here.
COLD ON CHANCES OF HENRY
⭕ 3.55 Catterick This could be an action replay of a race here last month when Cold Henry pipped Oh So Chic by half a length over today’s two mile trip. On 2lb better terms Oh So Chic is entitled to turn that form around and looks the more reliable customer in any case.
Cold Henry improved for the step-up in distance and was doing his best work at the end but had previously struggled on softer ground at Thirsk which he needs to tackle again today.
Termonator has yet to win on turf but has been consistent on the all-weather. His stable are in good form and he should enjoy the step up in trip but again there is a question mark over the ground.
YOU SEEN OAHU?
⭕ 6.25 Newcastle Oahu remains a maiden after four starts but might be worth a final play here on the back of a very creditable run last time out in the valuable Two Year Old Trophy (six furlongs) at Redcar where he completely out ran his 125/1 price tag to finish seventh beaten just over six lengths.
He also ran well on debut over course and distance when beaten just a length into fourth and the two runs in-between can probably be excused on distance grounds (5f and 7f).
This is obviously a massive drop in class (from Listed company) and he should prove too streetwise for debutant Dream Mission who represents the Archie Watson stable who have just gone off the boil (1 winner from last 27).
Jack Of Clubs ran well on debut at Ripon when third and would be a bigger danger for me.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.10 Chepstow (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win KARAKORAM
3.55 Catterick (win 10)
BET 2.7pts win OH SO CHIC
6.25 Newcastle (win 10, nap)
BET 5.2pts win OAHU
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
