PUNCHESTOWN PACKS 21.0 PUNCH: A Punchestown power pack of the best horses in training completes the jumps festival season, with all eyes on the trainers’ title, ahead of the English finale at the weekend with an equally tough battle at the top. Daqman looks at the multi-million-pound week of champions and picks his Punchestown opening bets, including 18.0 and 21.0 outsiders.
£13m BATTLES OF THE GIANTS
The racing rich get richer. In battles of the giant stables in England and Ireland this week, the top two protagonists in each country will bring their total haul to nearly £13,000,000 for the season.
The new kid on the block Gordon Elliott is head to head with many-years-the-maestro Willie Mullins at Punchestown, while Sandown at the weekend is the arena for the final old-firm clash of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson.
And, though each man has martialled his main artillery fire for the local confrontation, there will be cross-border raiding parties from England in retaliation for Mullins and Elliott nabbing £1,800,000 during the campaign.
IRELAND (venue Punchestown) Though Gordon Elliott is 4,046,980 euros to 3,643,125 ahead of Willie Mullins, Mullins peaked at 16 winners from the festival in 2015 and beat Elliott 12-4 at the 2016 festival, with a bag of 653,325 euros.
Mullins has trained 50 winners in five years at this Punchestown festival and success this week would give him his 10th festival championship.
Spoiler to watch: Jessica Harrington is second-leading trainer, producing rabbits from the hat which has her 100 points up to a single-unit stake!
ENGLAND (venue Sandown): Nicky Henderson leads £2,649,709 to £2,477,263 over Paul Nicholls. More on that later in the week. Meanwhile, they’re under starters orders at Punchestown.
LADIES FIRST FOR BOLGER – USUALLY
3.40 Punchestown It’s the lull before the Elliott-Mullins storm. No sign of them here, with Enda Bolger always king for half an hour.
He has trained four winners in a row of this Ladies Cup, the last three ridden by Nina Carberry, and his form figures in the race since 2010 are: 1131111.
Nina misses the race this year so one of the trends has ended and this year’s renewal looks more open. Wish Ye Didnt won the last two runnings at 8/13 and 5/4.
Bolger’s best hope this year would appear to lie with Equal Status who is hard to make a case for purely on the formbook. The closest he’s got in seven races is beaten 46 lengths and he was pulled up on his only start so far in 2017. If you support – it’s pretty much solely on the basis that he will have been laid out for this race.
Bolger’s ‘back-up’ hopes lie with Blue Templar, also pulled up most recently and who has a more exposed CV than Equal Status. He hasn’t shown much form at all and even less so when the ground has been faster.
Enniskillen was a nine and half length second in this last year (ground the same) and with the excellent Jamie Codd now taking over, he very much looks the percentage call to go one better.
STILL PLENTY OF JUICE IN MELON
4.20 Punchestown (Champion Novice Hurdle) The first Grade 1 of the week brings about the first clash of the big two trainers, with Mullins trying to smother Elliott with three runners to his one.
The referee might step in to stop the contest in round one though if the talented but hugely quirky Labaik refuses to race. Gordon Elliotts’s sole runner was very much on a going day at Cheltenham when beating Melon (Mullins) by two and a quarter lengths in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but Melon might get closer today on the faster ground.
Backing Melon to reverse the form on better ground looks a sound strategy especially with the trump (not THAT Trump) card up your sleeve with Labaik’s mood.
I’m always prepared to forgive a horse once but prior to Cheltenham don’t forget that Labaik refused to race virtually three times in a row. Melon is also very inexperienced (just two starts) and could easily have improved significantly for the Cheltenham run.
Pingshou sprang a 16/1 surprise at Aintree when winning a Grade 1, despite finishing only 10th in the Supreme. Better ground and a flatter track seemed to help that day and I certainly don’t believe it was a fluke win.
BACK GIGGINSTOWN OUTSIDERS
4.55 Punchestown A Grade-B handicap hurdle which has been won nine times in the decade by horses of double-figure odds, six years out of nine at between 12-1 and 16-1, so just outside the first four or so in the market.
Though Veinard is favourite this morning for Glordon Elliott, the eight-year-old has won only one race in his life!
And I shall take a chance on his stablemate, Dakota Moirette, a Punchestown winner in December who ran in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, and is set to get a stone and more from all bar one of this field, via Chris Meehan’s allowance. He’s 21.0 in BETDAQ as I write.
Seven out of nine have been six or seven years old, and another at a big price is, like Dakota, Gigginstown owned and, like Dakota, gets lumps of weight, dropped back in trip: 18.0 Clara Sorrento.
CAN TIZZARD OUTFOX MULLINS?
5.30 Punchestown (Champion Chase) Seven of the last eight winners had run in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, including God’s Own, who took this last year after running fourth to Sprinter Sacre at the Festival.
He was only fifth this time around in March, when Fox Norton was second, with Sir Valentino third.
Un De Sceaux, who had run second to Sprinter Sacre for the Champion in 2p015, swerved the race this time round in favour of the longer Ryanair, where he met horses below his level.
Un de Sceaux was clear from the eighth but had to be ridden out to hold the runner-up, who was 10lb behind him in the ratings.
He beat God’s own and Sir Valentino at Sandown in December and, as the ratings today reveal, his main rival is officially 169-167 in front of him.
Theoretically, then we are set for an English intrusion on the Mullins v Elliott extravaganza via Fox Norton, who is the improver, two years younger.
Fox Norton has beaten Gods Own at Cheltenham and Aintree much, much further than did Un de Sceaux at Sandown, and beat Sub Lieutenant at Aintree by further than Un de Sceaux did in the Ryanair.
At the offers, Fox Norton, with jockey of the jumps year, Robbie Power in the saddle, is the value bet at around 3-1, though against him is the very form I’ve talked about. Can he really be in at the business end of a third consecutive festival?
LAYERS MAY STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE
6.05 Punchestown Willie Mullins, who has won this four times in the decade, relies on Hollowgraphic, who is from a prolific bumper-winning family.
We know a little more about Rapid Escape who was purchased by Gigginstown at the Cheltenham sales for a mouth-watering £240,000 at the Cheltenham sales last month. He won a point at Tinahely in hugely impressive style.
Early Doors impressed on his debut here but it was heavy ground and conditions are significantly different.
The market looks to have got it right – but the race is stacked full of potential and my stakes on Rapid Escape are kept low.
MEADE CAN UNCORK A GENIE
6.40 Punchestown (Champion Novice Chase) Tough Disko looks strong, the favourite has won this only once in the decade. Four of the last five winners came from different races at the Cheltenham festival.
Acapella Bourgeois, A Genie In Abottle and Alpha Des Obaeaux were all there, though none fared as well as Disko, who was third to Yorkhill in the JLT.
Over 2m 6f here at Punchestown in November, A Toi Phil (Elliott) had Disko 12 lengths behind but Disko has beaten him twice since then, both times at Leopardstown and seemed to last out 3m better.
One we have no distance doubts about is Acapella Bourgeois, who made all over 3m at Navan in February.
But my turn-up for the race is A Genie in Abottle (12.5 offers), Disko’s Noel Meade stablemate, who was sent out for the four-miler at Cheltenham. He is closely matched with Anibale Flyer but could prevail for stamina in a fast-run race.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.40 Punchestown
BET 6pts win ENNISKILLEN
4.20 Punchestown
BET 7pts win MELON
4.55 Punchestown
BET 2pts win and place DAKOTA MOIRETTE
BET 2pts win and place CLARA SORRENTO
5.30 Punchestown
BET 10pts win (nap) FOX NORTON
6.05 Punchestown
BET 3pts win RAPID ESCAPE
6.40 Punchestown
BET 3pts win and place A GENIE IN ABOTTLE and 6pts win (stakes saver) DISKO
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