DAQMAN BY A STREET: 50% NAPS: Daqman is streets ahead of the rest, landing his nap yesterday for number 22 of the year. Eire Street (WON 5-4) put him on a 50% strike rate (7-14) since February 13.
COVERING THE ANGLES: There’s still no official decision about the choice of Cheltenham race for Broadway Boy but the markets indicate that he will avoid old adversaries on the Wednesday and take in the marathon chase on the opening day. Daqman needs to cover the angles.
BOY! DOES HE LOVE CHELTENHAM
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday March 12 (NH Chase) The Brown Advisory has Broadway Boy gradually drifted like a lonely dog on a raft since his defeat by Grey Dawning at Warwick last month.
But his form at Cheltenham is 1211, progressing 24lb up the handicap, and I think we should stay with him – literally – for the NH Chase.
It could be that the Brown Advisory favourite is frightening them all off.
Willie Mullins contender, Fact To File, is clear of Grey Dawning in the betting so Broadway Boy’s chance (17.0 ante-post) is doubly damaged.
It’s better for his jumping as well as the strength of the opposition to tackle the longer distance of the NH Chase, and around 10/1 now looks decent value.
It’s a race that’s produced Tiger Roll, Rathvinden and Galvin and it’s a strong stepping-stone to gold or marathon.
The plunge horses in the current market include Cobbetts Cross and Henrys Friend, who had to step up 8lb to beat Kilbeg King at Ascot in the Reynoldstown, so we have plenty of second-guesses, as savers on the day.
🗓️ Next week CHELTENHAM one week ahead. Daqman goes through stats and facts, as a guide to every race, every festival day, a week in advance.
NATTY NOT NUTTY PICK
⭕ 3.05 Leicester A quiet day of racing. Suspect that might be a cut and paste comment for a while as we embark on the two week countdown to the Cheltenham Festival.
The all-chase card at Leicester is particularly disappointing with just 29 runners competing in the six races. The saving grace is the card is not littered with long odds-on favourites as the races remain relatively competitive on paper.
The key formline to this 2m 6f handicap chase is the race here in January when Natty Night had three a quarter lengths to spare over Martalmix’jac when they were first and second over a slightly shorter trip.
The combination of the longer trip and change of going from soft to heavy should suit Natty Night even more (Martalmix’jac has never raced on heavy) and I’m expecting the form between the pair to be confirmed – despite a swing in the weights of 3lb in favour of the runner-up.
The other pair need to be mentioned as both are prominent enough in an open Betdaq Betting Exchange market.
Jack Doyen won at Warwick last March but his form has nose dived since and makes limited appeal, despite being 9lb lower than his Warwick mark.
The maiden Wide To West has shown even less recently – being pulled up in his latest two races and would need to be totally transformed by the first time blinkers. I’d struggle to be tempted even at double the morning odds of 5.8.
GEORGE LOOKS THE BOY
⭕ 6.30 Southwell The only question for the Adrian Nicholls trained Ingleby Archie is surely ‘how far’ in the earlier novice event at 5.00 but the stable can have (presumably) a double on the night with Tees George in this seven furlong handicap.
A winner at Newcastle in September he shaped eye-catchingly well on his reappearance after a 132 day break to finish fourth back at Gosforth Park earlier in the month and should be cherry ripe again for this.
After being campaigned at both 6f and a mile this median distance looks optimum for the relatively lightly raced four-year-old who might have most to fear from Captain Cooper who showed promise after a very lengthy break of 541 days to finish fourth at Newcastle and could easily be dangerously well handicapped.
SLIDING DOWN HILL
⭕ 8.00 Southwell Bristol Hill is hard to get away from and gets the nap vote of the day.
Partnered by Oisin Murphy for the first time, the six-year-old has paid the price for winning two races in three starts last year but his handicap mark has been sliding down the scale and there was plenty of promise from his Newcastle third last time out to suggest a return to winning form is imminent.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.05 Leicester (win 10)
BET 5.0pts win NATTY NIGHT
6.30 Southwell (win 10)
BET 4.4pts win TEES GEORGE
8.00 Southwell (win 10, nap)
BET 5.3pts win BRISTOL HILL
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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