SERIE A WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s games between SASSUOLO v NAPOLI and INTER MILAN V ATALANTA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SASSUOLO v NAPOLI
5pm We have mid-week action from Serie A on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this Wednesday! We have two cracking fixtures too, with intriguing markets. The highlight fixture of the night is undoubtedly Inter Milan v Atalanta later, but we kick off the action with Sassuolo hosting Napoli. Once again Napoli dropped points at the weekend, this time against Cagliari who sit in the relegation zone. They face another side in the relegation battle here – Sassuolo actually have the same amount of points as Cagliari and Verona so things couldn’t be any tighter. Napoli will make for a fascinating case study this season; they currently sit in mid-table while having the highest average xG created in Serie A! Napoli are the biggest under-performing side in Italy this season – actually only two sides (both in the Bundesliga) are under-performing more than Napoli from the whole of Europe’s top leagues. The issue for Napoli is well documented now – they just aren’t converting their chances. Their average xG created is 1.85 but their actual goals scored is only 1.36. They’ve actually been rock solid at the back too; they have the second best defensive figure in the league!
It’s hard to believe they sit in mid-table, a whopping 29 points behind Inter Milan at the top of the table, with the best figures in Serie A! With Napoli failing to convert their chances so much this season, it is hard to trust them. On paper, this is a game that they should win against a very average side in the relegation battle. Napoli come into the game as the odds on favourites, but there’s plenty of willing layers – the away win is trading 1.89 with Sassuolo at 4.5 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Sassuolo are another side that haven’t been converting their chances on a smaller scale to Napoli obviously! Their average xG created is a very respectable 1.40 but they have been conceding a lot of chances and goals. With both sides struggling to score we could have a low scoring affair, but given their chances created you wouldn’t want to be on Unders here, which is trading 2.22. I’m keen to keep stakes low here just because Napoli haven’t been a side to trust here; a small bet on the draw at 4.0 is a nice value options here.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 4.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SsuNap
INTER MILAN V ATALANTA
7.45pm Next we have the highlight of the night as Inter Milan host Atalanta. Inter Milan are running away with the title at the moment after Juventus went four games without a win, including Inter Milan beating them. That gives Inter a nice nine point lead at the top of the table, and they also have a game in hand so that could easily become 12 points here. Atalanta are in a big battle for that fourth spot; they have a little cushion on Roma and Lazio behind them but their major target is Bologna two points in front of them. Atalanta have a game in hand on Bologna, but obviously this is a very difficult fixture. Inter Milan come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.67, Atalanta are 5.8 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. We should have a top class game here; as I mentioned in the game above Napoli have the best attacking figure in Serie A this season but Inter Milan and Atalanta are the next two. The major difference between the sides is Inter have been much better at the back; they have the best defensive figure in Serie A this season. Inter have kept four clean sheets from their last five Serie A games – in between those games they also kept a clean sheet against Atletico Madrid when winning 1-0 in the Champions League.
We have landed some nice bets on Inter keeping clean sheets recently. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 2.12 but obviously they come up against one of the best attacking sides in Italy here. I feel Under 2.5 goals is a better option here at 2.17. I was surprised to see Overs trading odds on – I can understand that we have two excellent attacking sides but they have also both very solid at the back. We have had goals between the sides recently; three of the last four meetings have had Over 2.5 goals but in fairness that decreases to Overs only winning in four of the last ten meetings when you go back further. It’s in Atalanta’s interests to try and make this game as boring as possible too, they would only be one point behind Bologna then and a draw away to Inter is a cracking result in fairness here. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, but I do like the Under 2.5 goals at 2.17.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.17 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntAnt
