EVENS! SO 12 BANKERS OUT OF 15: Daqman went all in, maximum stakes, on an even-money shot yesterday and Tothemoonandback (WON 1-1) landed winning banker number 12 from 15 at Plumpton. It gave him 20 winning naps from the last 31.
AUSSIE BET WAS THIRD AT 20-1: Failing to add BETDAQ place bets to his Melbourne Cup picks cost him a win over Pricewise and the score remains 69-32 to Daqman, going into the big race at Exeter today. That Daqman bet at Flemington was Who Shot Thebarman (3rd 20-1).
SPRINTER NAPPED AT MAISONS: Daqman is looking for longer-priced naps in the last week of the Flat, and he turns to the final big sprint at Maisons-Laffitte today for a 6.8 offer. So it is that he tips in three countries today.
CADEAUX’S THIRD MELBOURNE BOUQUET
England first and second. Former champion jockey Ryan Moore landed today’s Melbourne Cup in emphatic style on Protectionist, with Ed Dunlop’s cracking veteran Red Cadeaux second for the third time in four years, just holding off Who Shot Thebarman in third.
Red Cadeaux hit the front with a furlong and a half to travel but Protectionist made up six lengths under a fine Moore ride and sprinted clear.
Germany has been a powerful thoroughbred force in the last three years, this Melbourne Cup for trainer Andreas Wohler following the Arc victory of Peter Schiergen’s Danedream (2011).
At least England had the winning jockey and the runner-up, described by his trainer as ‘the greatest bridesmaid ever,’ though Youmzain fans would argue with that. He was second in three consecutive Arcs and two Coronation Cups (2006-9).
‘DAY’ LOOKS A DARING NAP AT MAISONS
1.50 Maisons-Laffitte (Prix de Seine-Et-Oise) Some final scenes of the Flat season are played out at Maisons this afternoon, with Maarek – beaten half a length in this last year – trying to recapture Abbaye winning form of 2013. Likewise Catcall, second in that Abbaye, and more effective at the minimum trip.
Three-year-olds used to dominate this sprint (10 out of 12 up to the turn of the century) and I fancy David Elsworth’s Acclamation colt Justice Day on the soft ground. He revelled in it at Ascot and is improving. I took 6.8 for a sporting nap.
GO FOR ‘SUCCES’ IN FASCINATING CUP
2.15 Exeter (Haldon Gold Cup) The last two winners clash – Somersby (2013) and Cue Card (2012) – and the two winning trainers before that, Alan King (Medermit 2011) and Paul Nicholls (Tchico Polos 2010), send out their new boys, Balder Succes and Hinterland, both only six, as was Cue Card when he won it.
For good measure, add Venetia Williams’ stable in form (5 winners out of 10 still standing up to Sunday) with Sandown Celebration Chase runner-up, Pepite Rose. Then there’s the Punchestown Ryanair winner, God’s Own. Is this a race or what!
Here are stats you don’t often see: every winner in the decade (10/10) won this race without a prep run; and every runner today is without a prep run!
Yes, it’s almost impossible to find an edge, except perhaps trainer form, which – in terms of winners in the last fortnight – gives you 8 Paul Nicholls (Hinterland), 7 Alan King (Balder Succes), 5 Venetia Williams (Pepite Rose), 4 Mick Channon (Somersby), 4 Tom George (God’s Own), 1 Colin Tizzard (Cue Card), 0 David Bridgwater (Oscar Hill).
Form when fresh: Balder Succes 1301, Cue Card 1141213, God’s Own 22 still standing, Hinterland 111 still standing, Oscar Hill 0004, Pepite Rose 0031 still standing, Somersby 14311.
Four of the last five winners had run at the same year’s Cheltenham Festival, which favours Cue Card, Somersby and Hinterland.
Does last season’s result help? Well, the winner Somersby meets the third horse Cue Card (six lengths and a head behind) on 9lb worse terms which, strictly in handicapping terms, is enough.
Intriguing that Tom George’s lightweight Module ran second that day and the same stable has God’s Own, also down the handicap, in the mix today.
Balder Succes had beaten God’s Own at Kempton before going down less than a length to the same horse at Punchestown. He’d earlier won at Aintree with Hinterland last (ran too freely and hampered).
Well, what do you make of it all? I see it like this. If the youngsters, Balder Succes, God’s Own and Hinterland, are to cope with the big names at level weights, one of them must win this, receiving up to 20lb. But which one?
God’s Own doesn’t have the winning form first run back, and Hinterland finished last season under a cloud. He goes well fresh but is generally hard to get right and occasionally ‘a bleeder.’
Some of Paul Nicholls’ horses are not yet performing, and there are two many negatives at the price. So I shall have my pound on Balder Succes, though – like that last ‘s’ missing from his name – it’s a punt without total confidence.
‘KING’ AIDAN CHASING NEW CAREER!
3.55 Fairyhouse Does this chap know what he’s doing? He’s a trainer by the name of A P O’Brien and he’s had one or two winners on the Flat: Guineas, Derbys and Oaks, that soft of thing.
Yes, ok, he was once National Hunt champion trainer, saddled the mighty Istabraq, and currently has a fabulous 40% strike rate with hurdlers sent out from Ballydoyle.
But today he has only his second runner in five seasons over fences (strike-rate 0-1). One chase runner, one loser, then Aidan.
King Leon goes straight from novice hurdles (two from two) to fences, with jockey Robbie Power saying: ‘Anything he did over hurdles was a bonus. He will make a lovely chaser.’
Standing in the way of a winning debut this afternoon is The Bosses Cousin, trained by the modern jumps legend, Willie Mullins. But standing in the way of The Bosses Cousin are the objects of his demise thus far. Fences.
The Bosses Cousin pulled up in the Albert Bartlett hurdle at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival and his two attempts at chasing spread over the intervening 31 months or so have both been disasters.
‘Raced prominently; fell two out’ at Thurles in 2013 and ‘fell early’ at Punchestown in January of this year. Willie has had to send him back to school and today is his first exam.
Lord Adare, related to hurdlers, has done well enough in that sphere but would be the first of his family to enjoy fences. So it looks like King Leon against The Bosses Cousin, O’Brien v Mullins. A contest as rare as truffles in a chip shop.
They are saying that King Leon needs a longer trip but – check it out – The Bosses Cousin, Tisamystery, Royal Reveille and even Lord Adare have all been winning, or running, over further than this 2m. I’ll take Leon for king.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.4pts win (nap) JUSTICE DAY (1.50 Maisons-Laffitte)
BET 6.6pts win BALDER SUCCES (2.15 Exeter)
BET 7.8pts win KING LEON (3.55 Fairyhouse)
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