Indianapolis Colts (5-3, 6-2 ATS) @ New York Giants (3-4, 3-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -3 (51)
Significant Injuries
Indianapolis: DT Arthur Jones (out– ankle), LB Josh McNary (out– ankle), LB Erik Walden (out– quadricep)
New York: CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (questionable– back), DT Cullen Jenkins (out– calf), RB Rashad Jennings (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Indianapolis is 15-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss
Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record
Indianapolis is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Monday night games
New York is 1-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
New York is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week
The OVER is 5-0 in Indianapolis’ last 5 road games
The OVER is 8-2 in Indianapolis’ last 10 games overall
The UNDER is 4-1 in New York’s last 5 home games
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. The Colts have simply been much better than the Giants this season; they have a superior record, they’ve performed better against the spread, they’re scoring more points and they’re allowing fewer points. The fact that this game is in New York is all that’s keeping the line where it is (Ind -3), but remember: Indianapolis has covered in 6 straight road games against teams with losing records.
2. Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck is playing at an elite level this season and he’s leading an offense that has been the NFL’s best through 8 weeks, as the Colts rank 1st in total offense, 1st in pass yards per game, and 2nd in points scored. They should have their way with a Giants defense that ranks 26th in yards allowed and 20th in pints allowed.
3. The Colts were routed by Pittsburgh last week, but based on recent history that may be a good thing as it relates to their chances in this game. That’s because the Colts are the single most resilient team in the NFL, covering in 15 f their last 17 games following a loss. They’re also 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 14 points.
Three reasons to back New York
1. After some early-season struggles the Giants have really found a rhythm on offense, as they’ve produced 21 points or more in 4 of their past 5 games. On Monday night they’ll face an Indianapolis defense that was exposed by Pittsburgh in Week 8, with the Steelers racking up 51 points and over 500 passing yards. A big day from Eli Manning and Co. is expected.
2. The Giants have been running the ball well this season, producing nearly 115 yards per game on the ground, and this week they’ll have a chance to pad those numbers against a vulnerable Colts defense that will be missing to key front-seven pieces: tackle Arthur Jones and linebacker Erik Walden.
3. New York is a great situational play here: a home underdog coming off two road games and a bye, facing a team that has struggled a bit on the road this season (Ind 2-2 on the road, their two wins coming over teams with a combined record of 5-13), and the public is heavily on the other side (a red flag for any sharp bettor). The Giants are the “right” play from a handicapper’s perspective.
Prediction
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