THE 6-1 NAP THAT NEVER WAS: Daqman’s 6-1 nap, Pitter Patter, came to the last two lengths clear at Exeter yesterday, as low as 1.25 in running, and only had to jump it. He didn’t. He fell. The 6-1 nap was no more.
ANOTHER GOOD PRICE TODAY: Today Daqman reflects on a similar incident which ‘cost him a fortune’. But he pulls up his socks, puts his mouse back on the mat, and comes up with another one at decent odds against today.
MY NATIONAL ‘FORTUNE’ FELL AT THE LAST
I felt the fall close to my heart. In my wallet, of course. No, not yesterday; but Pitter Patter’s demise when just about to land me a 6-1 nap reminded me of a time 38 years ago, when I needed the money.
Let me take you back to a grey day at Chepstow for the Welsh Grand National. I was just a boy, of course. And I had a forgiving nature, or so I thought. I was also a gambler. Or nearly so.
A gambler is someone who bets on something when he has no real idea of the outcome. I was a bit better than that: I studied the Form Bible, and I watched the races and I was pretty much The Successful Punter. I was even writing a book about it.
There would be punts that would come off big time, like Troy in the Derby and Monty’s Pass in the Grand National, though that day at Chepstow almost put me off betting for life.
When Pitter Patter hit the deck yesterday and smacked my face, my mind flagged up that day at Chepstow. But I could not recall the name of the horse. Or the jockey I had afterwards reviled for losing me a fortune. I had to look it up.
That’s some form of forgiveness, or some sort of evidence that I’m a better man and a better punter these days. Or was it simply memory loss.
For the record, the horse was Gylippus. The jockey Bryan Smart. They had the Welsh National won. But they went for the big leap at the last. And fell.
The losing trainer, Jenny Pitman, was more philosophical. Or was she? She said: ‘Gylippus had nearly won the Welsh National. So at least I knew I could prepare a horse properly for a National.’
In fact, as I had with Gylippus, she had a bitter taste in her mouth. Of the day her family watched Richard Pitman on Crisp ‘nearly win’ his Grand National, run out of it in the dying strides by Red Rum.
‘I badly wanted to square things for the Pitman family,’ says Jenny. And she very soon did with a horse called Corbiere, her first Aintree winner.
Incidentally, the winner of The Gylippus Welsh National was Rag Trade, who went on to Aintree glory himself. I wasn’t on him; didn’t even consider him.
I registered his Welsh National win in my mind as a fluke. Because he wouldn’t have won it, had ‘my horse’ Gylippus stood up, now would he! More fool me.
I quickly learned the lesson, of course, though a faller at the last is always hard to take. But, whereas Pitter Patter and Paddy Brennan will rankle just for a day, Gylippus and rider smarted for 38 years, until my memory let me down.
There’s another twist to this tale. My first big punt ever – as they say – was in Crisp’s Grand National: I was on Red Rum. Sorry, Jenny. No wonder I fell for you.
TUTCHEC VALUE ON FORM AND POTENTIAL
2.45 Wetherby It’s a class 3, so you can hope the horses will run to form, though, of course, we need to be wary of anything ‘in disguise.’ My cursory searches (pun intended) for Form and Disguise both turned up Tutchec, who looked value at 4.3 on BETDAQ.
Tutchec completed a four-timer in the third week of January last year, yet is disguised today in that you can discount his first run back when his stable was in modest form and also his last race when he stepped up two grades to Listed level, not disgraced running on.
Tutchec’s trainer, Nicky Richards, has been red hot in the last month or so, creating a 28% hurdle and 20% steeplechase strike-rate, and the horse misses two engagements later in the week for this, in which he’s back within 4lb of his last winning mark at this level.
Jonjo O’Neill has had a couple of winners recently but is still missing strike (his last six returns of 243330 are not encouraging), and Catching On fell, unfancied, on his debut over fences.
Whenever I read ‘Fill The Power’ I think of Taylor. But Sue Smith’s nine-year-old has been on the oche four times this season without hitting the target, though ran a fair race in the Tommy Whittle last time.
Fill The Power is now down to within 2lb of his rating when he romped home, 18 lengths clear of a small field over this course and distance last February, albeit his sole success since May 2012.
Richmond made a winning start for the second season running but those wins were on easier tracks over shorter, 8lb and 18lb lower. He’s not going to find the necessary improvement at age 10. The novice Ballyben also has to raise his game.
3.15 Wetherby Beg To Differ and Ozzy Thomas, the chief protagonists here – according to the market – were totally friendless at 50-1 and 66-1 when placed on the last day, as if of little or no account at home.
Beg To Differ is with Jonjo O’Neill, and Ozzy Thomas used to be with Jonjo O’Neill. Curiouser and curiouser, said Alice.
And, though this pair are clear of the field in the market, some others are not without chances and four of them have won Points. Can we pull a rabbit out of the hat?
I understand that Jack Steel will try to make all the running, which could set up the stamina horse of the race, River Bollin, who has had more hurdles experience than most in this, including placed twice: 17.5 on BETDAQ as I write.
IT’S ADVANTAGE ‘DEUCE’ AT SOUTHWELL
2.30 Southwell Two class-2 races, both holding up for each-way betting. We can live with that, race-planners. Southwell have managed it today, with this opener again a two-horse race in the orange, and this time it’s difficult to argue.
It’s two years since Woolfall Sovereign managed to score back to back, and he’s racing off his highest winning mark here at the age of nine. Royal Bajan beaten him at these weights before and he’s now off a rating higher than he’s ever won off.
Sleepy Sioux was behind Woolfall Sovereign over CD on the first day of the new year and her chance of turning round the form is the age difference again. At four, she should be improving, with her five years in hand of the Sovereign.
But both Royal Bajan and Sleepy Sioux were even further behind Zac Brown at Chelmsford and he won over further at Wolver in the autumn.
Scarborough was behind Royal Bajan over CD in December, though different tactics – she made all – brought her success here in a lower grade a week ago. I took 3.15 Zac Brown.
3.05 Southwell Three of these are of pensionable age, and it’s a fair bet that John Gosden – in tremendous form with three winners from his last five starters – can improve Deuce Again past them.
I’m sticking to my plan for a longer-priced nap this week (pride comes after a fall!), so I’ll put the star on Tutchec but Deuce Again looks a good supporting bet.
DAQMAN’S BETS (1 to 9 points for strength; 10 a banker).
BET 5pts win ZAC BROWN (2.30 Southwell)
BET 8pts win (nap) TUTCHEC (2.45 Wetherby)
BET 6pts win DEUCE AGAIN (3.05 Southwell)
BET 1pt win and place RIVER BOLLIN (3.15 Wetherby)
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