YORK MAGIC: THE MAJOR STABLES TO FOLLOW: Who is the star trainer for the Ebor Festival starting tomorrow? Daqman has researched 10 years of results to bring you a list of the leading stables.
YORK MYSTERY: THE MARKET FLIES AGAINST THE STATS: They will tell you the draw you need for the Nunthorpe. But are they right? The betting says it’s a two-horse race but is that right? No way, says Daqman. Now read on.
Stoute hearts have money in the bank for York. Fans of Sir Michael cleaned up at the weekend when Dank delivered at Arlington Park, yet another example of his skill in improving older horses, stepping the Dansili four-year-old up from success in Group 3 (April) to Group 2 (July) and now Grade 1 in America.
At an ordinary level, Stoute has been in peak form, including a hat-trick from Monday to Wednesday last week, and I can tell you that he is way ahead of the rest, numerically, at the Ebor Festival at York, starting tomorrow.
Stoute, who runs Telescope in the Great Voltigeur and Hillstar in the International, has scored 13 times over the four-day meeting in the last decade.
William Haggas and Saeed Bin Suroor come next with nine each and ones to watch are the local stables of Richard Fahey and Tim Easterby, while Brian Meehan does surprisingly well at this meeting, particularly on the Thursday.
Top of the list in the decade are: Sir Michael Stoute 13, William Haggas 9, Saeed Bin Suroor 9, Luca Cumani 7, Aidan O’Brien 7, Tim Easterby 6, Richard Fahey 6, John Gosden 6, Brian Meehan 6, Michael Bell 4, Richard Hannon 4, Mark Johnston 4, John Oxx 4, Peter Chapple-Hyam 3, Jeremy Noseda 3,Kevin Ryan 3, Mark Tompkins 3. The Cecil and Hills yards also did well, and the Godolphin operation gets close to Stoute at the top, if you add their other trainers to the list of Bin Suroor winners.
Meanwhile, James Fanshawe is in stunning form with six winners from his last seven starters, setting up Green Monkey (4.00 Yarmouth) for a bet this afternoon.
Now, for stats fans, here are some facts and figures on three big races at the York festival, which suggest that all is not always what it seems:
3.40 York (Yorkshire Oaks, Thursday) Three-year-olds have beaten four-year-olds 6-4 in the decade, and punters usually get this race right.
Five favourites have won and the longest odds returned about the winner in the decade was 13-2 at SP in 2005.
KEY STATS: Recent winners of the Irish Oaks and the one-two in the Nassau Stakes account for 85% of winners, six of the last seven years. They would be 100% but for the intervention of one successful French raider.
3.40 York (Nunthorpe Stakes, Friday) Pattern-race form, particularly a good run in the Group-2 King George sprint at Goodwood, account for eight of the last 10 winners of this. Three-year-olds have won twice in the last three seasons.
KEY STATS: Only one six-year-old has won in my 35-year stats on this race, yet the first two favourites for Friday’s race are both aged six, Shea Shea and Sole Power.
In the 35 years, three-year-olds are the dominant age group with 14 winners (40%), hugely more than you’d expect in a sprint when horses win right up to a double-figure age.
In the last six runnings with big fields, stalls 11, 12 and 13 have scored three wins, three seconds and a third, a much higher total than a normal distribution of results.
3.50 Ebor Handicap (York, Saturday) Be warned before you think of having a bet that, in keeping with the modern trend for short handicaps, the ratings range last year was only 10lb, which worked out as 8st 11lb to 9st 7lb.
Expect just a 20-runner field within those parameters so, studying the form early, you can virtually forget everything rated 94 and lower.
KEY STATS: Five-year-olds dominate: they’re currently four out of five. You will be told that a rails draw is useful on this left-turning track, even over this 1m 6f.
Indeed, single-figure stalls have reached the frame (first four) 16 times in seven years at York. But the winners have been drawn 16, 10, 22, 16, 14, 14 and 18 (excludes the year the race was run at Newbury).
DAQMAN’S BETS:
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each MEDDLING (2.30 Yarmouth), GREEN MONKEY (nap, 4.00 Yarmouth) and DON PADEJA (6.30 Leicester) plus 3 x 5pt win double and 2pt win trebles.
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