TIME FOR ANOTHER 20-1 WINNER: Daqman is neck and neck (2-2) with Pricewise at the start of the current jumps season, but last year launched a sustained assault on the big prizes with Triolo d’Alene (WON 20-1) in the Hennessy Gold Cup and has carried all before him since that day, now leading Pricewise 110-46 after Balbriggan (WON 4-1 from 13.5 on BETDAQ) on Sunday.
HENNESSY HERE WE COME: Can Daqman do it again? Today he previews the big race, analysing each runner. In his bets today, below the column, he announces new plans for midweek racing and bigger targets for the quality end of the sport. Here are the Hennessy details:
ABC GUIDE WITH THE X-FACTOR:
A 12 of the last 15 winners were aged six or seven
B The last nine had all run at that year’s Cheltenham, Aintree or Punchestown festivals
C Seven of the last eight were rated 145 to 160
D Eight of the last 11 carried 11st or more
X Factor: Already won more than £100,000 in prizemoney
A QUALITY APPROACH TO THE HENNESSY
Whose turn is it now? The answer could be Alan King. A Philip Hobbs’ spree took him to the top of the trainers’ table before Paul Nicholls hit back with a weekend to remember.
Now the word from Barbary Castle is of a plot to lift two major races, well conceived and favoured by good fortune. First leg is Saturday’s Hennessy Gold Cup with Smad Place.
Now, with a whisper that Sprinter Sacre will not be ready for the Tingle Creek, strength is growing behind King’s Balder Success.
Meanwhile, Smad Place ticks all the boxes for the Hennessy but the quality factor for prizemoney won lifts four horses from a group of eight which is likely to contain the winner.
Barry Geraghty’s choice of Hadrians Approach or Triolo d’Alene will make the market sing. I’ll make my own approaches and check out the markets tomorrow.
ABCDX Hadrians Approach
Won the Sandown Gold Cup under a spectacular ride from Geraghty, who took the Hennessy last year on the Nicky Henderson stablemate, Triolo d’Alene.
‘Hadrian’ unseated that day and can sometimes leave a leg in a fence, though hasn’t fallen in two years and won the Graduation Chase (3m) on today’s course.
ABCDX Houblon des Obeaux
Not the biggest horse to be carrying top weight, which high rating is all down to an Ascot double in the United House Gold Cup and Silver Cup around a year or so ago. Sixth in this in 2013, rated a pound lower but, weight wise, carrying 4lb less than on Saturday.
ABCDX Triolo d’Alene
Last year’s winner, off a 10lb lower mark, actually carries 7lb more this time around. Usually needs good ground but a wind operation over the summer may help his labours at the business end.
Surprised he’s not had a run. He’s needed one every season so far, including when third, giving 3lb, to Houblon des Obeaux in the United House Gold Cup at Ascot a year or so ago. The Grand National is his target.
ABCDX Unioniste
Novice-chase winner on this course in soft ground, and twice a winner elsewhere on heavy. RSA fourth last year and third in the Great Yorkshire in January.
Unioniste is also regarded as a Grand National horse and success here would be unexpected (started last season third in the Charlie Hall).
ABCD Annacotty
Won the Feltham last Boxing Day at Kempton and returned there for a prep run for this. Likes to bowl along and went off far too fast in the RSA at Cheltenham, finishing eighth. Blinkers likely to be back on for this.
ABCD Black Thunder
Though he needed the race, he ran a cracker, beaten only half a length, giving a stone to the winner in the recent United House Gold Cup at Ascot. The softer the better.
ABCD Many Clouds
Hampered, then brought down, in the RSA behind O’Faolain’s Boy, he had run up to that one in the Reynoldstown, beaten two and a half lengths, giving 4lb. Looked good on his return at Carlisle. Likes cut.
ABCD Smad Place
Runner-up to O’Faolain’s Boy in the RSA (Annacotty behind, Many Clouds unlucky), Smad Place beat Sam Winner (heavy) as a novice at Newbury in February. That looks good now that Sam has won the Murphy at Cheltenham.
Does not like a lot of racing, but placings in World Hurdles suggest he is of the highest class, and stable confidence gathering momentum.
A Edmund Kean
Back-to-back novice chases at the start of the year on soft-heavy but beaten odds-on favourite before raised in class and pulled up Scottish Grand National.
A Le Reve
Started the year only fourth to Edmund Kean. Best runs at Sandown when second in the Grand Military Gold Cup in March and runaway winner over a class-3 handicap on his return this autumn.
A Merry King
Earmarked for the Grand National by the owner of The Grey Gatsby, second in the United House Gold Cup at Ascot a year or so ago, splitting Houblon des Obeaux and Triolo d’Alene.
Third in the same race recently to What A Warrior and Black Thunder, the three of them reassessed accordingly. Relished heavy ground when staging a flying finish in the Peter Marsh in January.
A The Druid’s Nephew
Raised 15lb since runaway Huntingdon winner last month after second to Sam Winner in the Murphy at Cheltenham. Has won twice on the soft.
A Via Sundown
Broke his pelvis in February but straight back to form over hurdles on his reappearance. A big, strong sort who has time on his side and loves the mud.
A What A Warrior
All his best form on good ground, including recent back-to-back wins, first at Ludlow (first-time tongue-tie) and then when beating Black Thunder and Merry King the United House Gold Cup at Sandown, getting weight from both.
BCD Ballynagour
A fine time last season, winner or placed at all three festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown, but this is a big step up in trip. Has won on all sorts of ground
BCD Fingal Bay
Winner of eight out of 12 starts, including four Graded hurdles. Second to Dynaste in the Steel Plate and Sections two years ago in a spell novice-chasing but otherwise known as a hurdler.
BCD Monbeg Dude
Welsh National winner of 2013 was afterwards third in the Haydock National trial and fourth in the Murphy, unable quite to get on top of his ratings rise, finishing last season seventh in the Grand National. Good run back and likes it soft.
BCD Rocky Creek
Runner-up last year. Weights turnaround with the winner gives him every chance but he’s eight now, nine in a few weeks.
Finished last season fifth in the G rand National and excellent run back, second in the Down Royal Champion Chase. Aintree beckons again.
BCD Vino Griego
Ran well for a long way behind What A Warrior when seventh in the United House Gold Cup, his first run since a fine second at the Aintree Festival. Has never won this high in the handicap and he’s 10 in a few weeks’ time.
B Djakadam
Looked a natural jumper in his novice chases but crashed out at the Cheltenham Festival. It would be quite a feat, even by Willie Mullins’ standards, to bring him straight back to win the Hennessy, though the master trainer declared him potential Gold Cup material in his Racing Post stable tour. Still only five.
B Midnight Prayer
Smad Place stablemate who won the National Hunt Chase (4m,) at Cheltenham in March and whose target is the Welsh National
– Victor’s Serenade
Lower-level chaser until beating Monbeg Dude at Chepstow last month but is a glass horse these days and hasn’t ben able to put two runs together since the Spring of 2012.
– Wychwoods Brook
Another who fails to tick any of the boxes. Would be in his element if it came up mud but badly in here with Merry King, third behind him in the Peter Marsh at Haydock in January.
‘SMILES’ WETHERBY BANKER BY MILES
DAQMAN’S BETS
BETS: Starting today until the New Year, all lower-class racing will be staked according to the strength of the bet, from 1 point to 10 points, with 10 a banker stake, naps from 6 to 9 and outsiders from 1 to 4. A 10-point banker is automatically the nap (best of the day).
Full details of the Daqman method will appear in articles between now and the New Year. Target staking (to win 20, 30, 50 and even 100 points) and 20-point bankers with money-box doubles and trebles will apply at weekends and for major or special midweek meetings: example, Newbury, starting tomorrow.
LAYS: Similarly, lays – which return today – will only have specific stakes during quality and weekend racing.
THE WEEK AHEAD: Every Sunday, racing for the week ahead will be assessed for quality and content.
HORSES TO FOLLOW: A spotlight on key races expected to throw up big-odds winners was started with Balbriggan for the Troytown Chase the week in advance.
BET 6pts win SOUTHFIELD ROYALE (12.40 Fontwell)
BET 5pts win MA DU FOU (1.20 Wetherby)
BET 3pts win VOLIO VINCENTE (2.10 Fontwell)
LAY DOMINANDROS and BET 4pts win CASTILO DEL DIABLO (2.35 Lingfield)
BET 10pts win (banker, nap) SMILES FOR MILES (3.00 Wetherby)
LAY SPINAMINNIE (5.15 Kempton)
BET 3pts win LANCELOT DU LAC and 1pt win and place HOOF IT (7.15 Kempton)
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