Chicago Bears (5-6, 5-6 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (7-4, 5-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Detroit -7 (47)
Significant Injuries
Chicago: LB Darryl Sharpton (questionable– hamstring), G Eben Britton (questionable– illness), DE Trevor Scott (questionable– knee), LB Lance Briggs (doubtful– groin), CB Kyle Fuller (doubtful– knee), G Matt Slauson (out– pectoral)
Detroit: OT Riley Reiff (questionable– leg), LB Ashlee Palmer (questionable– concussion), G Larry Warford (out– knee), DT Nick Fairley (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Chicago is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a win
Chicago is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. AFC North opponents
Detroit is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Detroit is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
The OVER is 5-0 in Chicago’s last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 20-7 in Chicago’s last 27 road games
The UNDER is 5-1 in Detroit’s last 6 games vs. NFC North opponents
The UNDER is 12-2 in Detroit’s last 14 games overall
Three reasons to back Chicago
1. These teams are moving in opposite directions: the Bears have won back-to-back games to climb back into playoff contention, while the Lions have lost two in a row and have covered just once in their last 5 outings. Mix in a generous 7-point number and the Chicago side becomes a no-brainer.
2. Chicago has an explosive offense with skill-position talent that is unmatched leaguewide. Guys like Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, and Matt Forte give the Bears enough firepower to make any defense nervous, and a week ago Detroit surrendered 34 points to the New England Patriots, so their defense is certainly not impenetrable.
3. The Lions have a horrendous offense that is averaging a mere 17.9 points per game and produced just 15 combined points in their last two games. The Bears, meanwhile, are playing their best defense of the season, having held their last two opponents to 13 points apiece. As I said in reason #1, these teams are moving in opposite directions.
Three reasons to back Detroit
1. The Lions currently sit at 7-4 after losses to two of the league’s best teams (Arizona and New England), and now they have a golden opportunity to get back on track against the disintegrating Bears, a team with major issues on both sides of the ball. The Bears have lost their last two road games by 69 combined points (!) and have covered just twice in their last 12 division games.
2. Detroit has the NFL’s best defense– they lead the league in points allowed and rush yards allowed and rank 3rd in total yards allowed. They should feast on the mistake-prone Chicago offense, a unit that has produced 23 points or fewer in 5 consecutive games and is led by quarterback Jay Cutler, who has thrown more interceptions than any QB in the NFC this season.
3. The Chicago defense just can’t stop anybody: they rank 30th in points allowed, surrendering 27.5 per game, and they’re especially bad on the road, where they’ve allowed a staggering 150 combined points in their last 4 games. Matt Stafford and the Detroit offense should move the ball with ease this week.
Prediction
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