SUPERNAP TRIUMPHS OVER THE STORMY TWO DAYS: Daqman had a winning supernap taken away from him by the Stewards on Monday (Fuente, WON 8-11, disqualified and placed second) after a tight photo-finish. But he had supernap’s revenge yesterday, Stormy Road (WON 8-11) landing the odds. His form figures for the day were 112:
WON 3-1 FENNAAN
WON 8-11 STORMY ROAD (supernap)
DAQMAN HITS THREE TIMES MORE THAN PRICEWISE: Daqman starts York Ebor week today 60-20 up on Pricewise (PLUS 89 to MINUS 90 points to a single-unit stake).
BIG-RACE VALUE IS BETTER ALL DAY WITH BETDAQ: The 179 points difference between Daqman and Pricewise is at bookmaker SP but there’s not one but two ways of beating that. In the illustration below, Daqman spotted better morning offers on BETDAQ at Royal Ascot, while the SP was better on BETDAQ XSP for every race at Goodwood. Today’s headlines:
WHY THE PRICE IS RIGHT ON BETDAQ
TAKE FRANKIE TO FLY HOME AT 43.0
THIS LOOKS RIGHT UP JAMES STREET
PLUNGE HORSE HAS COUNTER CLAIM
‘LION’ AT HEART OF TRIPLE WHAMMY
WHY THE PRICE IS RIGHT ON BETDAQ
Take offers or bet at SP? Here’s Daqman hitting up on the morning BETDAQ market at Royal Ascot, beating the bookies’ SP.
WON 16-1 SETTLE FOR BAY (Royal Hunt Cup at BETDAQ 18.0)
WON 12-1 EQTIDAAR (Commonwealth Cup at BETDAQ 18.0)
WON 10-1 LAGOSTOVEGAS (Ascot Stakes at 12.0 BETDAQ)
2ND 33-1 SIR CHAUVELIN (w/p, Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes, 47.0 on BETDAQ).
2ND 12-1 CITY LIGHT (w/p, Diamond Jubilee Stakes, from 16.5 on BETDAQ)
Take offers and bet at XSP: At another major meeting this summer – Goodwood – BETDAQ’S own SP, called XSP, beat the bookmaker SP in EVERY RACE for the entire Glorious week. And the XSP includes commission!
Whatever you decide to do, you know you are in a value market when you check out, for instance, the Great Voltigeur today and find BETDAQ offers add up to just 103% overround.
That’s why I said ‘take offers AND the XSP’. You can take a position on something hours before the race, and then play with the percentages, with the XSP always in mind to save the day.
TAKE FRANKIE TO FLY HOME AT 43.0
1.55 York Favourites haven’t featured in the results of this sprint handicap in the last decade with 11-1 and 20-1 covering six of the winners’ SPs.
But what will be favourite? Five horses were separated by only two points (between 10.5 and 12.5) in the BETDAQ market this morning.
That Culturati’s comeback was marred by slight lameness after more than a year off is a double incentive NOT to back him today on firmish ground. Such a problem horse needs an easier surface.
Gracious John looks weighted to reverse Ascot form with Tis Marvellous but both are in low stalls, when the high draw could be set up for victory by El Astronaute’s early speed from 18.
But two more pace horses, Eastern Impact (gate 9) and Copper Knight (adjacent in 10), suggest that old spearhead formation down the middle, so maybe one middle-ground spur and one on the rails with the lowest stalls struggling.
At the weights I fancy the filly Carlton Frankie (43.0 offers), sharpened up at Doncaster on Saturday, might spring a surprise for local trainer Mick Easterby from the middle spur.
THIS LOOKS RIGHT UP JAMES STREET
2.25 York (Acomb Stakes) Wells Farrh Go, who runs in the Great Voltigeur today, won this two-year-olds’ race last year for the North at 10-1, which is the average SP for the last five years.
But there’s a huge gap appeared in the BETDAQ market this morning, with the first four 11 points clear of the remainder, yet that ‘remainder’ all won on the last day, all suggesting more to come.
James Street (16.5) could be the one. He was giving a lump of weight to the runner-up at Nottingham and has been keeping on in both winning starts (2-2) as if today’s extra furlong would be right up his street.
Aidan O’Brien (Broome) continues in moderate form and has won this race just the once (2000). Watan still won though green first time out but the second race is most important to which way a juvenile will go.
PLUNGE HORSE HAS COUNTER CLAIM
3.00 York (Great Voltigeur) The O’Brien pair, Kew Gardens and Nelson, will have to come round the pack from their high stalls, despite stablemate Zabriskie’s likely pace setting.
The race that has thrown up Postponed and Cracksman in the last three seasons has gone to the low five stalls eight times in the decade, though the one stall is, as so often applies, the ‘coffin box’ for, in today’s case, Sevenna Star who ‘needs a shower or two.’
Charlie Appleby has a terrific twosome in the improver Cross Counter and Old Persian.
There’s nothing between Cross Counter and Kew Gardens on a line through the benchmark Dee Ex Bee but Cross Counter has stepped up 17lb with ease since June, and was the buzz in the BETDAQ market this morning.
The result was that Wells Farrh Go, who has always been my Voltigeur-Leger colt, was 6.2 at one stage as layers tried to tempt support.
In a 103% market, I could take the value Wells Farrh Go, and save on Cross Counter, putting both in my Daq Multiples.
‘LION’ AT HEART OF TRIPLE WHAMMY
3.30 York (Juddmonte International) Illustrious names have won this: from King George winner Postponed off 124 and Australia 123 right up to Sea The Stars 134 and Frankel (140).
Poet’s Word (130), Thunder Snow (124), Benbatl (123), Roaring Lion (122), Saxon Warrior (120) and Without Parole (118) lead today’s ratings officially, but I put in Irish Derby winner Latrobe at a notional 122 on collateral form.
Latrobe and, despite his Goodwood flop, Without Parole, would have to be the potential improvers on the basis of their slender CVs.
But, as far as is known, Without Parole , along with Saxon Warrior and Thunder Snow are really milers trying to get the extra quarter mile in the hottest possible company.
And, if you are strict with the form, and don’t allow sentiment, you’d have to admit that Poet’s Word beat a lesser stablemate on the last day and an out-of-sorts Cracksman previously at Royal Ascot.
It seems to me to set up a clash between the front-running Latrobe who lasted out the Curragh Derby distance (beating the benchmark Saxon Warrior about a length) and Roaring Lion, who beat Saxon Warrior a couple of lengths in the English Derby and a neck in the Eclipse.
Yet again we have only a 104% overround on BETDAQ, so I feel I can splash the cash. I will lay the favourite, Poets Word (2.56 in the green), back Roaring Lion at 4.1 and Latrobe at a huge 16.0 in the orange.
I’ve had plenty of double whammys, but never tried a triple whammy in a race like this in this column before. What a little lion!
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.55 York (win 50)
BET 1.25pts win and place CARLTON FRANKIE
2.25 York (win 50)
BET 3.25pts win and place JAMES STREET
3.00 York (win 40)
BET 7.75pts win (nap) WELLS FARRH GO
BET 5pts win (stakes saver) CROSS COUNTER
3.30 York (win 30)
BET 10pts win ROARING LION
BET 2pts win and place LATROBE
LAY to lose 10pts POET’S WORD
DAQ MULTIPLES
BET 2 x 2 = four 2pt win doubles
3.00 York CROSS COUNTER and WELLS FARRH GO
xx xx
3.30 York ROARING LION and LATROBE
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