HUGE VALUE ON BETDAQ: Daqman landed a one-two in the featured hurdle at Taunton yesterday, with both horses huge value on BETDAQ. Royal Vacation (WON 7-4) was taken at 5.0 BETDAQ morning offers and Qualando (2nd 3-1) at 6.2.
MORE WINNING WAYS: Says Daqman: ‘I win because BETDAQ is the winning place to play. It wouldn’t have been worthwhile to dutch the two at SP, but at the BETDAQ offers, it was a gift.’ The final parts of his series on how to bet successfully are in his columns today and tomorrow.
SIMPLE BETDAQ MATHS THAT WIN MONEY
It’s time to start adding two and two together. In the last few days I’ve talked about reading the form, getting value from BETDAQ, following class, and checking the market.
That’s a 2 x 2 four-track way of winning money on a regular basis. I use that phrase ‘regular basis’ advisedly: tomorrow we’ll look at sequential betting as the final piece of the jigsaw.
You can’t win with one bet; you can’t win over time if the odds are against you; but you can create a profitable sequence or coup of bets, if you get the percentages right.
Beware of false favourites and, conversely, offers that are too big. Look for unusual market activity, whether it’s the shortening up of a horse that should be at longer odds, or long odds about one that should be favourite.
TOO SHORT: I revealed how Katie Too (Sandown, February 19) was made 15-8 SP favourite on the strength of ‘beating nothing well’, unsubstantiated form in winning easily against poor rivals.
TOO LONG (BUY): How this allowed Jessber’s Dream in the same race to start at 9-2, even though there was collateral form with Vroum Vroum Mag, one of the favourites for Cheltenham.
That Dream bet was far too long, the price ‘held up’ by a favourite who was maybe not false but certainly too short in the circumstances.
TOO LONG (OPPOSE) But there are times when a horse that seems long is not a good buy; the offers are too good to be true.
If it’s ‘easy to back’, it’s probably ‘not at the races’ that day, for whatever reason, usually quite genuine.
For example, though Bosham (4.20 Wolverhampton this week) had landed a hat-trick, and was paper forecast at 6-1, he was available on BETDAQ early doors at 9.0 and drifted to 10-1 SP.
That simply shouldn’t be. He’d probably had enough for a while (horses aren’t machines at the lower level, and not often among the elite, unless they’re called Kauto Star or Frankel).
GAMBLES Conversely, I pointed out that W Six Times (2.20 Ayr, February 16), though coming to the race with form figures of 303P0, had a legitimate reason for winning. He won at 8-1.
Yesterday, Eastern Dragon (1.50 Wolverhampton) – paper forecast 6-1 and with bigger offers on BETDAQ – closed rapidly (unfortunately after our market Movers was published) and won at 15-8.
Shrewd market traders noted that, despite being slowly away, Eastern Dragon never once drifted. Defeat was not an option.
What was going on? Three clues: he’d changed stables; he’d dropped 23lb since he’d last run well more than a year ago; thirdly, there were three horses in the race of only nine runners who were likely to lead or race keenly, so setting up the finish for a hold-up horse.
All the above, bar Eastern Dragon, were published opinion on the day in this column. I’m not claiming anything for Eastern Dragon, so I’m not after-timing. But you should be!
Scour the results after racing. Look with hindsight at why you think a result has happened; what other potential outcomes were there; what did the betting tell you; from what stables were the winning Movers and the losing drifters?
It’s all part of reading the form in a way the others haven’t worked out. Get ahead with your racing knowledge. Get ahead with BETDAQ.
For example, I said earlier ‘beware of false favourites’. But don’t forget, you’re a BETDAQ player now: a false favourite is a lay, a way of making a profit without picking the winner! More of that tomorrow, too.
NIGHT IN MILAN LOVES DONCASTER COURSE
2.00 Doncaster Nicky Henderson is 2-2 in this, both carrying penalties, and Divine Spear ran up to a hat-trick winner of Paul Nicholls on this course in January.
3.00 Doncaster A couple of winners for David Pipe (Mount Haven) in the last 11 days but also no fewer than nine seconds; that’s missing strike badly.
Keith Reveley, Charlie Longsdon and Noel Williams are also out of form and I wouldn’t want to be on the 11-year-olds on this sunny Donny day on faster ground.
The change of going is a concern for betting. For instance, it might herald a return to form by Fingersontheswitch, a winner three times on good, yielding at worst.
He’s a ‘hidden horse’ because raced the last twice at Cheltenham, which is like nowhere else, including once over the wrong trip, and he’s dropping down in grade today. Has had a holiday to miss the boggy ground.
Pinnacle Panda has won only on soft-heavy and has to give weight all round; but Fort Worth has been unsuited by the soft, is capable at this level and also drops back in grade here. Since I got 7.0 Fort Worth on BETDAQ this morning, I could also back Fingersontheswitch (3.65).
For those of you who worry about backing more than one horse in a race, as you saw above (‘Huge value on BETDAQ’), the offers on BETDAQ are so good that two chances are possible in some cases where that would destroy any feasible percentage with bookmakers.
3.30 Doncaster These are Saint Are’s conditions but he’s been jumping Grand National and banks courses, so it looks as though this is a prep run. He’s in the cross-country at Cheltenham and the Aintree marathon.
Benbens, Night In Milan and Godsmejudge (stable out of form) are also bound for the National, all three of them in the frame in one of their last three races.
Night In Milan won the Grimthorpe on this course and at this level; just wish the yard was in a bit better form.
Reaping The Reward finished ahead of him over CD in December, was well in front of Benbens at Sandown in January, and was second in this race a year ago. Again the stable is not in prime form and, though he seems sure to be thereabouts, he’s never won beyond 2m 5f.
In the end, you have to go with the course specialist. Night In Milan (5.2 offers) is one of the younger horses in this veterans’ race and is three times a winner at Doncaster.
4.05 Doncaster Last year’s winner Paint The Clouds is a banker here under Sam Waley-Cohen, both a class apart from the rest of this field.
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 20pts at BETDAQ offers, except bankers are level stakes at SP)
BANKER: BET 20pts win DIVINE SPEAR (2.00 Doncaster)
BET 7.5pts win FINGERSONSWITCH and 3.3pts win FORT WORTH (3.00 Doncaster)
BET 5pts win NIGHT IN MILAN (3.30 Doncaster)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) PAINT THE CLOUDS (4.05 Doncaster)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5pts win double DIVINE SPEAR (2.00 Doncaster) and PAINT THE CLOUDS (4.05 Doncaster)
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