HE’S THE KING OF AINTREE: 39.0 ON BETDAQ: Already on Rocky Creek at 28.0 for the Liverpool Grand National on April 5, Daqman today takes 39.0 offers about Balthazar King, recent hat-trick scorer, who’s been round before and is ideally placed as a 10-year-old off 10st 13lb.
THE DAQMAN GRAND NATIONAL DEBATE: The Great Grand National Debate begins today, with the publication of the weights. Here Daqman sets out the talking points in a sequence of matches between owner, trainer, jockey, form and stats.
CLASS WILL OUT: BUT DOES LONG RUN MATCH UP, DROPPED IN THE WEIGHTS?
Tidal Bay v. Long Run: They are the class horses, and class will out. They have both been dropped in the weights, Tidal Bay 7lb below his official handicap mark, Long Run down another 3lb.
But can it be true that Tidal Bay is only a pound lower than his best-ever performance yet is 13 years old, giving weight to a Gold Cup winner, Long Run, still only nine but dropped 22lb in the last two years?
Is Long Run big enough, man enough, even for the more moderate fences at modern Aintree? Tidal Bay, Hennessy runner-up and Welsh National third, has courage and stamina on his side.
This head-to-head will be one of the talking points of a modern Grand National, run to attract weight-carrying Graded horses, over kinder fences at a faster pace.
McManus v. Wylie: J P McManus owns 11 possibles: Cantlow (Paul Webber), Colbert Station (Ted Walsh), Carlingford Lough (John Kiely), Double Seven (Martin Brassil), Quantitativeeasing and Quiscover Fontaine (Enda Bolger), Alfie Sherrin, Storm Survivor, Sunnyhillboy and Lost Glory (Jonjo O’Neill), Wyck Hill (David Bridgwater).
Andrea and Graham Wylie choose from a smaller, quality group in Tidal Bay (Paul Nicholls), Boston Bob, On His Own and Prince De Beauchene (Willie Mullins).
Nicky Henderson v. Paul Nicholls: The champion-trainer duel goes on year on year, but their Grand National records are pretty abysmal.
Nicky Henderson has had two seconds, no winners in a 35-year- career. He chooses from Long Run, Hunt Ball, Triolo D’Alene and Shakalakaboomboom.
Paul Nicholls saw Silver Birch (2007) slip through his fingers to another trainer and finally won with a horse he didn’t fancy, Neptune Collonges (33-1 in 2012).
He is responsible for Tidal Bay, Rocky Creek, Kauto Stone, Sire Collonges, Mon Parrain, Hawkes Point, There’s No Panic.
Tony McCoy v. Ruby Walsh: A P McCoy had to wait even longer than Paul Nicholls until at long last he won on Don’t Push it (2010). He’s likely to be on Colbert Station for J P McManus.
Ruby Walsh is one of the safe rides of the race and has won on Papillon (2000) and Hedgehunter (2005). Ruby could possibly ride Prince De Beauchene, with Paul Townend partnering On His Own.
Known Stayers v. The Handicapper: Triolo d’Alene is up 10lb for winning the Hennessy Gold Cup, with two-and-threequarter-length runner-up, Rocky Creek, 5lb better off.
Seabass, third in the 2012 Grand National off 139 and 13th last year off 154, has been dropped only a pound. Teaforthree, third last year, is 2lb lower. Sunnyhillboy is 4lb higher than when second in 2012.
Godsmejudge, third in the NH Chase (4m) at the Cheltenham Festival and winner of the Scottish Grand National, is 9lb higher than for that Ayr triumph but is only eight years old.
Monbeg Dude is 18lb higher than when he won the Welsh Grand National last season. Mountainous has 7lb more than when winning the same Chepstow race this year.
The Fences v. The Favourites: On His Own, 14-1 when he fell in the 2012 Grand National, was only 8-1 last year but fell again, though he did get round in the Becher Chaser in December.
Colbert Station, well backed into 12-1, was travelling smoothly last year under A P McCoy when caught out by The Chair. He had had only five previous chase starts at that stage.
And two of his races since have been over hurdles to try to beat the handicapper, but he’ll still start on April 5 some 2lb higher.
Course v. Cup: Many punters will still prefer form in the Grand National itself over Graded-race and Cup-race form. The following have completed in the National:
Seabass (twice), Sunnyhillboy, Teaforthree, Swing Bill, Soll, Saint Are, Across The Bay, Balthazar King, Quiscover Fointaine, Shakalakaboomboom, Planet of Sound.
Stats v. Form: Take ages 9, 10, 11 with Graded-race form and rated 148-157 (my stats for the race published yesterday). That gives you a short list of 17 from the 115 posibles:
Roi Du Mee, Boston Bob, On His Own, Bog Warrior, Seabass, Mossey Joe, Quito De La Roque, Cantlow, Colbert Station, Rubi Light, Walkon, Balthazar King, Wayward Prince, Cape Tribulation, Mr Moonshine, Teaforthree, Across The Bay.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: I’m already on Rocky Creek at 28.0 on BETDAQ. I shall now take the tasty 39.0 offers this morning about Balthazar King, up 4lb on last year, and likely ride of Richard Johnson.
Balthazar King is a good-ground horse ideally suited to Aintree turf, where he finished the course in the 2013 National after being left in the lead at the 16th, weakening from the 20th.
He is a much stronger horse now at age 10, having completed a hat-trick in the autumn when winning the cross-country at Cheltenham in November (3m 7f), the same battle-hardening agenda that won the National for Silver Birch.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.8pts win LORD OF DRUMS (2.40 Musselburgh)
BET 1.6pts win and place (Outsider Of The Day) DARLINGTON COUNTY (3.15 Musselburgh)
BET 7.5pts win FORCED FAMILY FUN, plus 1.4pts win and place FISHER (3.50 Musselburgh)
BET 4pts win (nap) UNDERSTORY (4.15 Lingfield)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 1pt win treble Fennell Bay (2.10 Musselburgh), Understudy (4.15 Lingfield) and Golan Way (4.25 Musselburgh)
ANTE-POST: BET 1pt win BALTHAZAR KING at 39.0 (Aintree Grand National, April 5)
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