PLAYING UP ‘HOT’ WINNINGS: Daqman is pulling out all the stops to find betting angles, as he launches his Top-Up Tips in a bid for commission concessions, and presents a trio of Hot Spots for the big Newmarket Cesarewitch weekend. Hot Spots, which are advance big-race tips, had Goldream (WON 9-1) on Sunday in Paris.
TOMORROW: CESAREWITCH ABC: There’ll never be a good time to run an ABC on the Cesarewitch this week, with ‘ifs and buts’ about so many of the runners, but Daqman will do his best to reveal the angles on the race.
THE OPEN DOOR TO MAKING YOUR OFFERS COUNT
Say ‘hello’ to three old friends. The hyped horse, the most-tipped favourite, the Pricewise ‘value’ bet. Why do you love ’em? Because their odds are too short, and they don’t win often enough to make a long-term profit. So they are soft options for you to attack.
Of course, the most obvious invitation is for you to lay them. But, just as important, it’s an open door for your own value bets and for your commission killing:
VALUE BETS: When a horse comes down in price, offers on others in the race are likely to increase, including the one you think will win.
The price about ‘your one’ will ease and, if you are quick, you can be in on that, venturing bigger offers than are showing in the orange, pushing for a reduced (2% instead of 5%) commission.
Remember what I told you yesterday about ‘pricing up.’ Even if ‘the short shot’ is an unexpected gamble, don’t join in when the price has gone. If it scares you, have a stakes saver to cover your own bets.
But stick to your guns and be glad you are in a race which is laced with offers from the lemmings – punters who back the obvious – leaving you with lush options.
TOP-UP TIPS: Those races – with hyped horses, likely gambles, most-tipped favourites, Pricewise kites – should be marked off by you each day as those in which to target horses to top up in the market.
By making bigger offers, you can secure better value and a commission cut at one and the same time.
There’s exactly one calendar month of the Flat season left, and I’m developing my Triple Whammys to include all aspects of the game, with which to have a flutter.
Lays, win bets, win-and-place outsiders, hot spots, value bets, ton-ups and bull’s-eyes, plus top-up tips..
We’re 77 winning bets in front of Pricewise; we’re hitting that bull (like Goldream at 9-1 to win 50 points); and we’re slamming in sequence after sequence of winning naps (see Archive and recent blurbs).
So let’s step up to the oche and spend some of it targeting even bigger winnings in a final-month punt.
CORNWALLIS HOT SPOT: KEEP ‘QUIET’ ABOUT IT!
1.35 Newmarket, Friday (Cornwallis Stakes) The man with the winning streak in this race is Kevin Ryan, who has won it with Our Jonathan (2009) and Hot Streak (2013).
HOT SPOT: On Friday, Graham Lee rides Ryan’s best Cornwallis raider of them all, Quiet Reflection.
Our Jonathan won it off 98 and Hot Streak off 107 but Quiet Reflection is already a 109 animal, despite only three runs to his name.
He’s a son of Tasleet’s sire, Showcasing, out of a mare by 2,000 Guineas winner, Haafhd; her first foal, in fact.
Quiet Reflection has done her proud, impressive on the last day when scooting home by four lengths in the Harry Rosebery at Ayr, prompting the Racing Post to comment ‘she looks like a Group-class filly in the making’ and her trainer to explain: ‘She got knocked over in the Lowther or would have finished in the frame.’
3.10 Newmarket, Friday (Fillies Mile) No doubt hoping some give in the ground remains for this Cesarewitch meeting is man-of-the-season-by-far John Gosden; not to mention currently invincible Frankie Dettori.
HOT SPOT: They team up with Nathra in this one after her sudden rise to fame in September, not raced until scoring at Salisbury (soft).
She stepped up on that and had a few flabbers gasted as she entered 1,000 Guineas calculations with a stunning seven-lengths demolition job at Newbury.
3.50 Newmarket, Saturday (Cesarewitch) My Hidden Horse feature started with a 9-1 winner but its first feature-race success was on the opening day at the York Ebor meeting, with Heartbreak City (WON 7-1).
HOT SPOT: Heartbreak City now looks ideally placed in the Cesarewitch handicap on Saturday. I shall be previewing the race with my usual ABC analysis tomorrow; see how he fares in that.
MENGLI CAN: BUT STOUTE STAR’S A GOOD OFFER
3.05 Nottingham Hugo Palmer can do no wrong. He’s on four consecutive winners if he can take this with Mengli Khan, after celebrating his Tattersalls Millions 2-Y-O win with Gifted Master and Covert Love’s Prix de l’Opera in Paris on Sunday.
But another Palmer certainty now is that his horses will be shortened up by the following he’s got from this success.
Morning favourites show moderate returns in two-year-old races. ‘New’ favourites – those that come to the front of the market during the exchanges up to the time of the race – have a much better record.
Of course, Mengli Khan is likely to stay as market leader, in which case you will need to save on him.
Mengli Khan has the advantage of a run and is one of three youngsters here entered in the Group-1 Racing Post Trophy. Brorocco and West Drive are the two others.
But have you checked Sir Michael Stoute’s record with two-year-olds? More than half his runners finish in the frame (62% over the last five seasons) and his current record is even higher.
He normally has favourites which means the percentages can’t be beaten without careful selectivity, but sometimes there’s an easy price because of a popular favourite against him.
So I just had to grab the 6.0 this morning about his son of Sea The Stars related to a Park Hill mare on the dam’s side, Across The Stars, a definite first position on this race.
3.35 Nottingham Bathos’ sire, Poet’s Voice, has had 10 runners 10 losers on soft or heavy ground.
That’s a small sample but, with the rain still falling at Colwick Park this morning, every little helps in deciding your bet, and there’s no edge from the draw in this small field.
The sire of Viren’s Army is 100% with runners on heavy, but that’s an even smaller sample, an entirely unreliable one runner one winner!
But Viren’s Army, whose stable won this race last year, has already romped home four lengths on the heavy at Epsom, loving it, and ran well afterwards in a big Sales race at The Curragh.
Dal Harraild has also done well with some cut but only one of those behind him at Haydock has run well since.
Rioca comes into it, too, and we need all of the morning 10.0 Viren’s Army for a bit of win and place, though the Bathos breeding clearly suggests a lay.
HALLELUJAH! SHE CAN LIFT US ON A RAINY DAY
8.25 Kempton For the nap, I’m taking Hallelujah (4.2 this morning) to repeat last year’s victory in this.
You can rely on James Fanshawe to have got the mare ready after her long holiday and, with three horses within 1.1 points of each other in the market, I fed in a bet at 4.7, adding half a point, hoping for a commission killer.
I thought I might squeeze a bit more out of the orange, with the build-up to the race all about Chookie Royale and, at the same time, Lancelot Du Lac being backed in to lead the market.
At these low-level stakes, a bet on Hallelujah would be a minor fall but a major lift on a rainy day..
BETDAQ TIPS (staked 1 to 9; a banker is 10)
BET 3pts win and 5pts place ACROSS THE STARS (3.05 Nottingham)
LAY 3pts BATHOS, and BET 2pts win and place VIREN’S ARMY (3.35 Nottingham)
TOP-UP TIP: 6pts win (nap) HALLELUJAH (8.25 Kempton)
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