BANKER DAY AT YORK DESPITE THE RAIN: Daqman goes all in on a York banker, despite rain changing the ground to good to soft this morning. His stakes in the other races are high all round but highest of all in the Gold Value sprint, where he bets at 13.5 and 19.0 to win 40 points.
20.0 AND 15.0 IN MORE BETDAQ-VALUE BETS: Daqman also has bets at 15.0 and 20.0 in the last race of the day on the Knavesmire, and Daq Multiples with bankers in England and Ireland.
1.45 York Four-year-olds have taken this every time in the last six years, including one saddled by John Gosden, who sends out Lahaag from stall 6 today.
In the last four seasons, 9 out of 12 of those placed have been drawn 1-6, strongly favouring the rails runners on the left-turning track.
Lahaag very nearly won in this grade – beaten a head in a bumping match – at York on the soft last backend. Against him is the low-level form of the stable this year. We’ve yet to see a quality improver, from the yard, though it has won two races in the last three days.
First Mohican loves cut in the ground but couldn’t cope with a rise to this level under a 12lb hike in the ratings when favourite for the November Handicap, albeit badly drawn.
Clayton was second in the City And Suburban, also swinging left-handed on the turning Epsom track, and his CV suggests he’ll be staying on when some have cried enough.
This is not the ground for a Cape Cross (Ruscello) but, as a Motivator, it should hold no fears for Spifer, who was fifth in that City and Suburban after being fourth in the Rosebery; seems to lack a finish.
Clayton and Lahaag are the form horses and, as four-year-olds with the added bonus of a low draw, they could be the answer in a market so open that it was around 7.0 the field on BETDAQ this morning.
I almost dropped Clayton – I don’t like horses that have won only their maiden – but he’ll no doubt have been ‘got up’ for a bold effort for local owner Guy Reed, and two bets are allowed with the total probability only 103%, a punters’ haven in the orange to start the day.
2.15 York No outright favourite has won this in the last decade, and Yorkshire stables are 7 out of 9, with preference for a quality sort from the top of the handicap: 8st 12lb upwards captures 8 out of 10 winners.
Last year’s winner from stall 15, Secret Witness is on the other side now in 2, where he should get some pace from Nocturn (in 3). Compton (17), who was held up when winning on soft over 7f, has also been known to attack the pace.
Though he’s a Pivotal, Secret Witness has not done well on the soft and is a lonely dog on a raft this morning, over the betting weir at 28.0, as I write.
The improver of the race seems to be York Glory and Kevin Ryan is bullish about him, which is going some when you consider he was stone last in this race a year ago.
York Glory has since won a key race for this at Pontefract – it’s produced the winner three times – and I took the 7.0, knowing I was in a punter-friendly zone (the orange added up to only 107%).
2.45 York (Musidora Stakes) Gosden goes for a hat-trick here with Woodland Aria, following Joviality and The Fugue, of which The Fugue managed third in the Oaks.
Sir Michael Stoute’s 2006 Musidora winner, Short Skirt, was also third in the Epsom Classic. But the success story of this race was Sariska (2009), who went on to take both Epsom and Irish Oaks.
Stoute’s Liber Nauticus, 1.68 as BETDAQ opened for offers last night, was 1.8 this morning in a sub-103% list of offers. I grabbed that.
Ryan Moore says he’ll be disappointed if she’s beaten, not a flashy worker at home but one who wakes up on the racecourse. He knows Woodland Aria through a filly called Elik – they were one-two at Wolverhampton- and says Liber Nauticus is in a different league.
The 1.8 is a good banker offer and the Oaks betting speaks volumes for this filly, who is taken to compensate Stoute for the disappointment of Telescope’s withdrawal from the Dante.
3.15 York Last year’s 1-2-3-4 in a blanket finish meet again, with the winner, Tiddliwinks, and second, The Cheka on the same terms, but Society Rock with a 5lb Group-1 penalty, as winner of September’s Haydock Sprint, and Bogart, of course, now without his three-year-old allowance.
Mince, clear in the ratings, a winner at York, and successful on soft, must go close but was beaten on her reappearance last season, albeit narrowly, and her stable is a modest 3-21 this year.
In yet another BETDAQ orange punter friendly at 107% total probability, Gordon Lord Byron, Lethal Force, Maarek, Society Rock and Tiddliwinks have all won at Group 1 or 2 level, whereas Mince has taken only a Group 3, with only Listed winners and handicappers behind, if you take out the Aussie credentials of the horse that finished second that day she won at Ascot.
The grey Lethal Force (has won when fresh), a potential improver as he’s only four, is likely to try to outrun them and, as a winner over 7f, could have the stamina to last home.
There eas nothing between Society Rock and Gordon Lord Byron – threeparts of a length in fact – on firm ground in September, and I prefer ‘Gordon’ on today’s surface and because he’s fit from AW and can also win at 7f.
Soft going is against Tiddliwinks and Tickled Pink but Maarek has returned in fine form and the rain has come for him, so I took 13.5 Gordon Lord Byron, 19.0 Lethal Force, but with my main bet on Maarek at 7.0 in the BETDAQ gold environment.
5.00 York Richard Fahey runs three to maintain his form figures in this race of 1211, but I know he particularly likes Khelman.
A huge price at 20.0 offers this morning. Yet again the BETDAQ orange adds up to less than 110%, and I can afford to go in again, Unknown Villain (15.0) also being worth a dabble, gelded now for a yard in top form and with his maiden form boosted several times.
Gelded, too, is Mundahesh, who also sports a first-time hood. That sounds like he’s the business while he’s fresh, so we must have a saver.
6.50 Naas (Blue Wind Stakes) The Ribblesdale winner and the Epsom Oaks winner were first and third in this last year, and the Ribbledsdale winner took it the year before.
Add to that, places in the Irish Derby and the Pretty Polly and you have a real revival of this heat in the last four years.
Yet today is the day it goes all-age, which is why you see last year’s winner, Princess Highway, on top of the pack.
The only three-year-old, Rehn’s Nest, has beaten a 107-rated four-year-old, Yellow Rosebud, in the Park Express Stakes at The Curragh this March.
Princess Highway, rated 117, will be a much harder opponent, though multiple entries for Rehn’s Nest – Ribblesdale, Coronation Stakes, Irish Oaks – suggest she can improve on that reappearance victory.
DAQMAN’S BETS
VALUE BETS 5pts win on each CLAYTON and LAHAAG (1.45 York)
VALUE BET 5pts win YORK GLORY (2.15 York)
VALUE BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) LIBER NAUTICUS (2.45 York)
GOLD VALUE: BET 7pts win MAAREK, 3.2pts win GORDON LORD BYRON, 2.2pts win LETHAL FORCE (3.15 York)
VALUE BETS: 2.1pts win UNKNOWN VILLAIN, 1.5pts win KHELMAN and 1pt win (stakes saver) MUNDAHESH (5.00 York)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pt win trebles LIBER NAUTICUS (2.45 York) and PRINCESS HIGHWAY (6.50 Naas) with my three in the 3.15 York: MAAREK, GORDON LORD BYRON and LETHAL FORCE
DAQMAN’S TARGETS: An above average day at York, with stakes on the value bets calculated to win 30 points but raised on the Gold Value race to win 40 points. The banker and the multiples are staked separately.
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