4-1 WINNER WAS DAQMAN JACKPOT ‘BAK’ AT 8.6: Saturday-king Daqman struck again when he forecast that Bakbenscher (WON 4-1) would bounce back in the mud at Haydock. He took morning BETDAQ offers of 8.6 and increased his stake to land a 30-point jackpot.
TWO NAPS UP IN THREE DAYS: Daqman landed his Saturday nap with Cedre Bleu (WON 5-4), following on Guest Of Honour (WON 9-4) on Thursday. Look out on Boxing Day
SIX PICK FOR THE KING GEORGE: The Boxing Day King George challenge to Long Run was reduced when Sir Des Champs and Finians Rainbow were both ruled on Sunday morning. That left Daqman’s ABC guide as a final six:
There are just three names on the King George roll of honour since 2003. It seems a long, long time since Edredon Bleu that year (did he really win it?), perhaps because the memories of five-time winner Kauto Star are so strong. Or perhaps because no one wants to remember George Bush singing ‘I Did It My Way.’
After Kicking King’s back-to-back success (2004-5), there was only one inter regnum to Kauto’s reign, when Long Run beat him into third in 2010. Last year Kauto Star came back, with Long Run put in his place in second, yet that defeat was an omen in itself for Long Run this year.
Long Run Before Kauto Star recaptured Kempton’s Christmas cracker and broke the race record, and going right back to Mandarin in 1957, five horses have regained the King George crown, with additionally, Desert Orchid, See More Business and Wayward Lad gaining sweet revenge.
That’s one reason why I couldn’t do my usual ABC guide: the stats about age and form don’t make sense because, Gold Cup or King George, from Arkle through to Best Mate and Kauto Star, you are so often following a young hero until he becomes a legend and, with only one or two exceptions it’s a young horses’ race this time around.
Long Run himself is still only seven. Like Mandarin, The Fellow, Kicking King and Kauto Star, he opened his account in the race when only six years old, though the 2010 race was delayed until January 2011, so it should have been run when he was just five.
We were told there was plenty left to work on when Long Run returned to the racecourse at Haydock in the BF Chase in November yet time may tell that his close second to Silviniaco Conti was as good a seasonal debut that he’s ever made.
Long Run was only third in a handicap at the start of 2010-11 and was hammered eight lengths by Kauto Star in the same Haydock opening to his 2011-12 season.
Nicky Henderson’s son of Cadoudal has never been out of the first three in 23 starts, 13 of them wins, five under Sam Waley-Cohen. The only blemish on his record is the decision to drop him 10lb in the ratings since his defeat by Kauto Star in last year’s race. If only this were a handicap!
Cue Card Even so, Long Run’s nearest rival in the market, Cue Card, is rated 7lb his inferior, and those ratings are for his form up to a maximum of 19.5 furlongs over fences.
He’s never completed in a race beyond 2m 4f and he’s won only one chase outside novice class in his career. But he’s just six years old.
And the world’s at his feet if he can combine stamina with the speed he showed over hurdles or when second to Sprinter Sacre in this year’s Arkle with Al Ferof more than 25 lengths behind. If..
Riverside Theatre A 5lb better animal than Cue Card, according to the handicapper, but has two more years showing in his teeth, though with only five more starts on his CV.
The reason for that was a pelvic injury which denied him a crack at the 2011 Ryanair but he made up for it by slamming Albertas Run in the same race in March.
He’s not had a prep run for Boxing Day but why should he when he’s won on his reappearance for the last three seasons. His form at Kempton is 11112 but that ‘2’ was a 12-lengths defeat by Long Run in the delayed 2010 King George in January last year.
Captain Chris In the same boat as Cue Card and Riverside Theatre in that he’s never won over 3m; in fact, not beyond 2m 3f.
The Pendil Novices’ Chase here at Kempton in February last year was the scene of his prep win during a superb piece of training by Philip Hobbs to get him spot on for the Arkle that March. He was. He won it.
But he’s never really been in that top form since and was more than 18 lengths of the winner when third in this King George last December, and was beaten six lengths by Riverside Theatre in the Ryanair.
Grands Crus The Grands Crus balloon seemed to have burst after his flop, fourth to Bobs Worth in the RSA and, again (pulled up), on his return at Cheltenham last month.
But this horse is a stout performer at 3m and beat Silviniaco Conti (see Long Run) on this Kempton Boxing Day card in last year’s Feltham. Can he bounce back to that form?
Kauto Stone I end with a Kauto, which is where I came in. ‘Stone’ would not have been uttered in the same breath as ‘Star’ until his return – over 3m mark you – at Down Royal in November when he looked like ‘the real deal’ in his length defeat of First Lieutenant.
Perhaps not much wording will change in the ‘past winners’ list, after all, with Ruby Walsh back on a ‘Kauto.’
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT (King George 1-2-3): BET 10.5pts win LONG RUN, and 3.3pts win on each KAUTO STONE and SIR DES CHAMPS (offers taken Thursday for Kempton Park, Boxing Day)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
