Denver Broncos (6-2, 4-4 ATS) @ Oakland Raiders (0-8, 4-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Denver -11 (50)
Significant Injuries
Denver: RB Montee Ball (questionable– groin), TE Virgil Green (questionable– calf), LB Nate Irving (out– knee)
Oakland: TE David Ausberry (out– foot), CB Chimdi Chekwa (out– hamstring), G Gabe Jackson (out– knee), CB Carlos Rogers (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Denver is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss
Denver is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Denver is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC West opponents
Oakland is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Denver’s last 5 games vs. AFC West opponents
The OVER is 5-2 in Oakland’s last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 5-2-1 in Oakland’s last 8 home games
Three reasons to back Denver
1. You won’t find a much bigger mismatch than this. The Broncos are 6-2 and many people’s pick to win the AFC, while the Raiders are 0-8, the NFL’s last remaining winless team. Plus, Denver has dominated this rivalry of late, going 4-0-1 against the spread in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
2. The Denver offense is an unstoppable machine that averages over 400 yards and 30 points per game. Peyton Manning, the leader of the offense, is one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. This week Manning faces an Oakland defense that ranks 26th in points allowed, surrendering 26.4 points per game, so serious fireworks are expected from the Broncos.
3. The Raiders have a pathetic offense that ranks 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in yards per game and 31st in points scored, producing just 16.1 points per game. They have very little chance of success against a Denver defense that ranks 7th in yards allowed and has surrendered 21 points or fewer in 5 of their 8 games this season.
Three reasons to back Oakland
1. Since their Week 4 bye the Raiders have been more competitive than people realize– they’ve faced four consecutive winning teams (San Diego, Arizona, Cleveland, Seattle) and have lost each game by 11 points or fewer. Of course, 11 is a significant number in this instance because it happens to be the line in this game. These Raiders are better than the betting public is giving them credit for.
2. The Oakland offense scored 21 2nd-half points against the fearsome Seattle defense last week, and in their last division game the Raiders put up 28 points against San Diego. This week they’ll face a Denver defense that ranks 21st against the pass and has surrendered 64 combined points in their last two games.
3. Boy, that’s a lot of points. Double-digit home underdogs in division games should never be ignored.
Prediction
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