St. Louis Rams (3-5, 3-5 ATS) @ Arizona Cardinals (7-1, 6-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Arizona -7 (43)
Significant Injuries
St. Louis: CB Marcus Roberson (questionable– ankle), S Cody Davis (questionable– concussion), CB Janoris Jenkins (questionable– knee), LB Daren Bates (doubtful– groin)
Arizona: DT Ed Stinson (questionable– groin), LB Desmond Bishop (out– hamstring), RB Stepfan Taylor (out– calf)
Recent Trends
St. Louis is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win
Arizona is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC opponents
Arizona is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record
Arizona is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a win
The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 6-1 in St. Louis’ last 7 road games
The UNDER is 5-2-1 in Arizona’s last 8 games overall
The OVER is 7-3 in Arizona’s last 10 games vs. NFC West opponents
The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back St. Louis
1. The Rams have scored two major upsets in their last two division games, beating Seattle in Week 7 and then going on the road and beating San Francisco last week. They’re simply better than people have been giving them credit for and they’ve been tough in division games ever since Jeff Fisher took over as coach.
2. The St. Louis defense has struggled against the run this season but they’ve been very good against the pass, surrendering just 225.2 yards per game through the air. Well, this week they get an Arizona offense that isn’t well-equipped to attack them where they’re weakest, as the Cardinals rank 28th in rushing offense with an average of just 90.8 rush yards per game. This is a favorable matchup for the Rams defense.
3. The Cardinals have been entirely unable to stop opposing passing attacks this season, as they’ve surrendered a league-worst 286.8 pass yards per game. That sets up nicely for young St. Louis quarterback Austin Davis, who has been impressive this season despite a subpar supporting cast. Davis will be given the green light on Sunday and should have a monster game.
Three reasons to back Arizona
1. The Cardinals have been better than the Rams in every conceivable way: they have a better record, they’ve performed better against the spread, they score more points, they allow fewer points, they have a more experienced roster that features more Pro Bowlers… the list goes on. The fact that the Rams squeaked by an overrated San Francisco team last week is all that has kept this line where it is, and at 7 the Cardinals are an absolute bargain.
2. Arizona has a dominant defense that ranks 6th in points allowed and 3rd against the run, surrendering fewer than 80 rush yards per game. This week they face the dreadful Rams offense, a unit that ranks 28th in both total yards per game and points scored. The Rams have been held to 17 points or fewer 5 times in 8 games.
3. As bad as the Rams are on offense, they’re nearly as bad on defense, where they rank 27th in points allowed and 30th against the run. So, to recap: the Rams rank 28th in points scored (18.6 ppg) and 27th in points allowed (27.5 ppg), they’ve covered just twice in their last 7 road games and just once in their last 5 games following a win, and they’re going on the road to face a team with the NFL’s best record. An Arizona bet is the only sensible play here.
Prediction
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