Detroit Lions (7-3, 5-5 ATS) @ New England Patriots (8-2, 6-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New England -7 (48)
Significant Injuries
Detroit: RB Reggie Bush (questionable– ankle), DT Nick Fairley (out– knee), G Larry Warford (out– knee)
New England: DE Dominique Easley (questionable– knee), OT Marcus Cannon (questionable– hip), S Nate Ebner (questionable– finger), OT Cameron Fleming (out– ankle), DE Chandler Jones (out– hip)
Recent Trends
Detroit is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game
Detroit is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
New England is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
New England is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games
The UNDER is 6-0 in Detroit’s last 6 road games
The UNDER is 8-1 in Detroit’s last 9 games overall
The OVER is 4-0 in New England’s last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 38-17-1 in New England’s last 56 home games
Three reasons to back Detroit
1. The Lions are a division-leading team that’s playing particularly well at the moment, with victories in 4 of their past 5 games. Until this week they had not been an underdog of more than 2 points in any game this season, and with good reason– they’re one of the NFL’s best teams. However, the national Belichick/Brady lovefest that has been ongoing for over a decade has inflated this line, and oddsmakers have little reason to adjust it considering that New England has been one of the week’s most popular public bets at sportsbooks worldwide. Are you eager to back the week’s most popular public bet? (hint: you shouldn’t be)
2. Detroit has the NFL’s best defense, a unit that leads the league in both yards allowed and points allowed. They have yet to surrender more than 24 points in a game despite facing teams like Green Bay and New Orleans. The Patriots, meanwhile, have been piling up yards and points against soft defenses. The last time New England faced a comparable defense to Detroit’s was back in Week 4, when the Kansas City Chiefs held them to 14 points in a 27-point Kansas City win.
3. The Patriots have a soft defense that has surrendered 20 points or more in 6 of their past 7 games. They should have trouble with a Detroit offense that features the league’s best receiver, Calvin Johnson, and several other explosive skill-position players, guys like Golden Tate, Reggie Bush, and Joique Bell. Quarterback Matt Stafford has already out-dueled Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan this season, so a matchup with Tom Brady shouldn’t intimidate him in the least.
Three reasons to back New England
1. With 6 straight wins, five coming in blowout fashion, the Patriots have established themselves as the class of the AFC and possibly the best team in the entire NFL. This week they host a Detroit team that has won 7 games thanks to a soft schedule– the Lions, after all, have only beaten two teams that currently have winning records. And Detroit has struggled on the road recently, covering just twice in their last 8 opportunities.
2. The New England offense has been simply unstoppable in recent weeks, producing an astounding 136 points in their past 3 games. While the Lions have been very good defensively this season, their weakness is in the secondary, and Tom Brady is currently playing at an MVP level. Brady and the Pats may not score 40 again, but, then again, that’s the same thing we said last week (and the week before, and the week before that…).
3. It’s tempting to say that Detroit’s offense is struggling, but “struggling” implies that the problem is temporary. Fact is, we’re 11 weeks into the season now and I’ve got another word for the Detroit offense: bad. They’re averaging just 18.8 points per game and are as one-dimensional as ever, ranking 31st in rushing offense. The New England defense, which ranks in the top-half of the league in every major statistical category, shouldn’t have any trouble this week.
Prediction
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