Cleveland Browns (6-4, 5-3-2 ATS) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-6, 4-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Atlanta -3 (47)
Significant Injuries
Cleveland: S Johnson Bademosi (questionable– concussion), LB Jabaal Sheard (questionable– foot), LB Karlos Dansby (doubtful– knee), WR Marlon Moore (out– hamstring), TE Jordan Cameron (out– concussion)
Atlanta: CB Robert Alford (out– wrist), OT Jonathan Scott (out– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Cleveland is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a losing record
Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit home loss
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
Atlanta is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall
The UNDER is 4-0 in Cleveland’s last 4 games following a loss of more than 14 points
The UNDER is 6-0 in Cleveland’s last 6 games overall
The UNDER is 4-0 in Atlanta’s last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 6-0 in Atlanta’s last 6 games overall
Three reasons to back Cleveland
1. The Browns are a quality team that’s played well recently, having won 3 of their past 4 games, and this week they’ll face a Falcons team that has been even worse than their 4-6 record would indicate. Atlanta has not beaten a single team that currently has a winning record and they’re 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. The wrong team is favored here.
2. The Falcons rank last in the NFL in total defense, surrendering over 400 total yards per game. They also rank last against the pass (281.2 pass ypg allowed) and they’ve surrendered 22 points or more 7 times this season, so you could objectively say that Atlanta has the league’s worst defense. That spells trouble against an efficient Cleveland offense that ranks in the top-half of the league in both rushing and passing.
3. The Browns have a quality defense that has surrendered just 19.5 points per game this season, and the Falcons have had serious issues on the offensive side of the ball anytime they’ve faced a quality defense, producing 21 points or fewer 6 times in 10 games. Atlanta’s problems stem from their offensive one, which is one of the league’s worst. They’ll have tremendous difficulty with Cleveland’s talented defensive front.
Three reasons to back Atlanta
1. The Falcons are playing their best football of the season, having won 2 consecutive games since their bye week to tie New Orleans atop the NFC South. They’re an excellent home team, covering in 4 of their past 5 opportunities, and this week they host a Cleveland team that cannot be trusted– the Browns were blown out by the offensively-challenged Houston Texans last week and lost to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars less than a month ago.
2. Despite some bumps in the road the Falcons have still played very well on offense this season, as they currently rank 12th or better in total yards per game, pass yards per game, and points scored. They should have plenty of success against a Cleveland defense that ranks 22nd in yards allowed and a dismal 30th against the run, surrendering over 140 yards per game on the ground.
3. The Browns have a conservative, close-to-the-vest offense that has topped 30 points just once this season and has produced 24 points or fewer in 5 consecutive games. The Falcons, meanwhile, have steadily improved on defense, limiting their last 3 opponents to 18.6 points per game. Cleveland simply won’t be able to score enough to keep pace with the high-powered Atlanta offense.
Prediction
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