This ante post business can take you on a bit of a roller coaster. You don’t have to back a horse for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in October in order to get the roller coaster feeling either. You can just back a horse for today’s John Smith’s Cup at York just three days before the race and get the same effect.
Say you backed Media Hype for today’s race last Wednesday. First you had the worry that he wouldn’t get into the race – he needed four horses above him in the weights to come out – although that wasn’t a major worry, as if he was ballotted out as opposed to withdrawn, you knew that you would get your stake back. Then you had the worry that he also held an engagement in a race at York on Friday, that he could run there instead even if he did get into today’s race.
The first high was when the declarations came through on Thursday morning, Media Hype among them. He had been declared, and he had got into the race, number 19 of 20. Not only that, but Luca Cumani’s horse Danadana, second favourite, hadn’t been declared, so one less major danger to worry about. (There were many though.)
The first heart-in-mouth moment was early on Friday morning when Elaine Burke’s horse was still among the declarations for Friday’s race. Of course, he had been declared for the race, he had to have been declared on Wednesday morning when his trainer didn’t know if her horse would get into Saturday’s race or not. However, you fully expected that, once he was in the John Smith’s Cup (£97,035 to the winner), he would have been scratched from the 3.45 at York on Friday (£11,450 to the winner), you would have expected the familiar ‘Doubtful’ (say: ‘No chance of running’) to appear beside him on the Racing Post’s website.
Not only that, but he had been tipped by a couple of pundits for yesterday’s race. And he was backed. Or he was shortened. He was in to no better than 5.5 for Friday’s race by around 9.30am. You kept checking back, you must have refreshed your browser about 23 times between 9.30am and 10.00am when, huge sigh of relief, he was scratched. He was running in the John Smith’s.
All he has to do now is go and win the thing.
He has a big chance, still better than suggested by his current odds of 8.0 in my book. Okay, so he could only finish fifth behind Area Fifty One at Newmarket last time, but he didn’t have the run of the race at all that day. He missed the break, he was further back than ideal in a race in which it was an advantage to race handily, and he could never really get going.
He wasn’t badly hampered at any stage, he was never really checked, you couldn’t put your hand on your heart and say that he was a desperately unlucky loser, but he was just always in traffic, it seemed that he could just never get into the clear to try to deliver a meaningful challenge. Even so, he kept on well up the hill to finish fifth.
As well as that, the ground would have been a fair bit faster than ideal at Newmarket. The trainer’s husband Karl Burke said afterwards that they probably shouldn’t have run him on the ground. He will be much happier back on an easier surface today.
He should also be much happier back at York. The best run of his life was at York’s Dante meeting back in May, over today’s course and distance actually, when he travelled well and picked up nicely to beat his year-older half-brother Troopingthecolour (who ran well at Newbury yesterday) and some decent handicappers with a fair bit more in hand than the one-and-three-quarter-length winning margin.
The handicapper raised him 8lb for that run, but that was more than merited. He has left him on his mark of 91 after his Newmarket run, but his conqueror there, Area Fifty One, has to lumber a 5lb penalty today. Richard Fahey’s horse could run well, but he is essentially a fast-ground horse, and the ground surely isn’t in his favour for now.
Mijhaar is obviously a big danger, he looked a likely winner of the Wolferton Handicap at Royal Ascot when he went for home a furlong out, and he might well have won as well had he not drifted down to the far rail, where the ground was probably at its slowest. He has been raised just 2lb for that, but that leaves him on a mark of 104, which is high enough for a big handicap like today’s, and it is a little bit of a worry that Roger Varian reaches for a first-time hood now. He is progressive, he goes well on easy ground, and he is a player, no question, but he is a fashionable horse now after his Ascot run, and 5.0 is short enough.
Memory Cloth would have to have been on your shortlist if the race was over a furlong or two less than it is and if he wasn’t 2lb badly-in, and Stand To Reason would have been on it if you continued to believe that there is a big prize like this in him on easy ground. (At some point, ideally before you reach the cliff, you have to stop and let them run without you.)
Alkimos is the other one who could run a big race, he did well to finish as close as he did in Camborne’s Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot after encountering traffic problems on his first run since being gelded. He would probably prefer a slightly longer trip, but he was progressive last year for Luca Cumani, he handles soft ground well, he is lightly-raced, Saeed Bin Suroor’s horses are going well now, and he has a shot.
Media Hype has more in his favour, though. He is at least as progressive as Alkimos, even though he is a year older, and the fact that he is proven at the track and on the ground just swings the verdict in his favour.
Just once more around the vertical loop then.
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