HERE’S A QUESTION. Off what mark do you think Blazer would be racing in the BF Hurdle if the British handicapper had had a chance to re-assess him?
Here’s the background. Blazer came over from France with a hurdles rating of 126 and chasing aspirations. He raced twice over fences for Willie Mullins and JP McManus, got beaten twice, then went back over hurdles at Leopardstown on Saturday and, racing off his mark of 126, won easily.
The Irish handicapper re-assessed him on Monday, giving him an extra 12lb, giving him a new rating of 138. But the BF Hurdle had already closed, he was already in there on his mark of 126, so he just has to shoulder a 5lb penalty. Therefore, he gets to race off an effective mark of 131 on Saturday. That is 7lb lower than his new Irish mark, and that is probably even lower than the British mark he would have been given had the British handicapper had a chance to re-assess him.
Here’s the context. There are six Irish-trained horses in the BF Hurdle – five trained by Willie Mullins, one by Noel Meade – and four of the other five are set to race off British handicap ratings that are higher than their Irish marks. That’s usually the way it goes. Kalkir is 3lb higher, Dicosimo is 4lb higher, Waxies Dargle is 5lb higher, Buiseness Sivola is 6lb higher.
You can’t know for sure, but if the British handicapper had had the opportunity to re-assess Blazer before Saturday’s race, he would probably given him at least 6lb more, and that is on top of his new Irish mark, not his old one.
So his new Irish mark is 138. He could have given him a mark of 144 or 145. He would probably be racing off a mark that is about a stone higher than the mark off which he is set to race.
What we do know for sure is that, if Blazer and Buisenss Sivola were to line up against each other in a handicap hurdle in Ireland now, Blazer would race off a mark of 138 and Buiseness Sivola would race off a mark of 136. Blazer would be giving his stable companion 2lb. In the BF Hurdle, however, Buiseness Sivola is conceding 11lb to Blazer. Such are the vagaries of the handicap system.
Of course, this is not just a game of weights and measures. Horses are living, breathing beings, and the main worry about Blazer is the fact that his Leopardstown race was just seven days before his Newbury race. It is a quick turnaround. And even though it didn’t appear as if he had a particularly hard race, conditions were really testing at Leopardstown on Saturday, it was wet and it was windy. Every horse who raced on the day had to have known that he or she had had a race.
That said, Blazer has lots and lots in his favour. For starters, he is by far the most obviously well-handicapped horse in the race. He could be as much as a stone well-in.
As well as that, he has the potential to be better even than his new Irish handicap rating. He is only five, he has raced just six times in his life, just three times over hurdles, and just once over hurdles for Willie Mullins. He has bundles and bundles of potential for further progression.
There are other factors too. He is a five-year-old in a race in which five-year-olds have a good record. He has a low weight in a race in which those towards the lower end of the handicap do well. He is owned by JP McManus (pictured), who likes to win this race. He won it recently with Get Me Out Of Here and My Tent Or Yours, and he would surely have won it with Darlan had that horse not fallen at the second last flight. And he is trained by Willie Mullins. (No addendum required here.)
He will be ridden by Barry Geraghty, so not only will he have the assistance of one of the best riders in the business, but he also has the rider’s vote of confidence. Geraghty has chosen to ride Blazer in front of the other three JP horses that he could have ridden, and one of those is Modus, long-time market leader. And the rider is getting down to 10st 4lb, which he doesn’t do every day.
Everything into the mix, Blazer is the most likely winner of the race by a fair way, and he is worth backing at 5.2.
We know that Blazer will handle the ground, but we don’t know that Modus will.
Modus was a high-class bumper horse last season, and he won on soft ground at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting, but he wasn’t overly impressive in beating Charmix that day, and he seemed to struggle on heavy ground at Taunton last time.
It could get very heavy at Newbury on Saturday, it often does when it rains, and that may not see Modus to best effect. This is a hugely competitive race, and if you don’t handle the ground, you could get lost. Modus has drifted significantly in the last few days, but you still should be able to lay him in the place market at around 3.5, and it might be worthwhile doing that.
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