DONN McCLEAN: First things first: on all that we know, on all the evidence that we have, Mecca’s Angel is the most likely winner of the Temple Stakes at Haydock on Saturday – if it rains.
Rain is important. Mecca’s Angel likes rain. It rained at Longchamp last May, and she won the Prix de Saint-Georges. It rained at York last August, and she won the Nunthorpe Stakes. It didn’t rain at The Curragh last July, and she was beaten in the Sapphire Stakes. She was only beaten a neck, but she just wasn’t at her brilliant best, and trainer Michael Dods said that they wouldn’t be doing that again.
Dods was true to his word. It didn’t rain much in Paris last October, and he took his filly out of the Prix de l’Abbaye. Dods drew stumps on the season.
The trainer says that he will take her out of the Temple Stakes too if it doesn’t rain enough, and you know that he will. It’s a long season ahead, lots of chances for rain.
There is rain forecast for Haydock, but there was no sign of it when they raced there on Friday evening on good to firm ground.
Whether Mecca’s Angel runs or not, it looks like the market has under-rated Profitable, 10.0 with Mecca’s Angel in the race, 10.0 less the Betdaq deduction if Mecca’s Angel comes out.
Clive Cox’s horse was a good sprinter last year as a three-year-old. He was relatively low-profile, he wasn’t up there in the top echelons of sprinters, but he won a good listed race at York’s Dante meeting last year, and he ran a cracker to finish fifth in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot.
He looks like a seriously improved horse now, however, on the evidence of his win in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket last month on his debut this term. He did race with the small near-side group that seemed to be favoured that day, but he beat Waady, who raced in the near-side group with him, and Jungle Cat, who raced just away from the near-side group.
He showed a nice turn of foot from the two-furlong pole that day, and he kept on well all the way to the line to win by a half a length from Jungle Cat, with Waady another neck back in third.
It may be that his trainer had him primed for his seasonal return, but he was not especially strong in the market before that race, he was allowed go off a 20/1 shot. It is more likely that he will build on that now.
There are two main reasons for believing that he will progress now. Firstly, he is only four, he is at the age at which sprinters can progress significantly, and his rider Adam Kirby says that he is a tougher and stronger horse this season now after another winter under his belt.
Secondly, he has never been at his best on his seasonal debut. He usually progresses from his first run to his second. He was beaten on his racecourse debut at Newbury as a juvenile, but he progressed from that to win his maiden at Sandown on his second attempt. On his debut last season, he could only finish fifth, six lengths behind Waady, in a handicap at Sandown – when he admittedly didn’t have a clear run – but he progressed from that to win that listed race at York on his second run.
If he can show a similar level of progression from his first run to his second run this season, that should be good enough to take him very close in a Temple Stakes.
The Invincible Spirit gelding would not want extremes of ground, but he has good form on good ground, and some rain would not be a negative. He ran well in the Cornwallis Stakes as a juvenile on the only occasion on which he encountered soft ground in Britain, and the ground was on the easy side of good when he put up the best performance of his career in the Palace House Stakes last time.
Adam Kirby is a top rider, and Clive Cox has his horses in really good form. The Lambourn trainer has had five winners, three seconds and two thirds (and one of those thirds, Seeking Magic, was first past the post) from 14 runners this week. Profitable has to step up now if he is going to win a Group 2 contest, but there is every chance that he will, and, at current odds, he may represent the value of the race.
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