DONN McCLEAN: Instinctively, you know that it is a help to be drawn high in the Scottish Sprint Cup. Close to the stands rail. A glance at last year’s result confirms your suspicion: the first four home were drawn, respectively, 11, 17, 12 and 10.
That all augurs well for Kimberella then, who drew stall 17 of 17, and the money has come for him, probably as a consequence of his good draw.
Dandy Nicholls’ horse has a big chance on form anyway. He looked unlucky in the Dash at Epsom last Saturday, he tried to anticipate the start, but he went for it too early, before the stalls actually opened, and he missed it by a few lengths. In that context, he did remarkably well to get as close as he did, beaten just a short head by Caspian Prince.
That run was up there with the best runs of his career. He is in the form of his life these days.
The handicapper raised him to a mark of 96 for that run, but this race had already closed by then, so he gets to race off his old mark of 93. So he is 3lb well-in today, and he is 4lb lower than his peak. Put all that into the mix, and he deserves to be favourite.
The only negative really is his price now. He was 8.0 on Wednesday, admittedly with his stable companion, Saturday’s impressive six-furlong handicap winner Blaine still a possible runner in today’s race at the time. So Blaine comes out, Kimberella draws 17 of 17 and, hey presto, he’s a 6.0 chance.
A high draw is an advantage, but it may not be as great an advantage as the advantage that the market has conferred on the Kyllachy gelding.
Dig a little deeper into the draw. The first four home in the 2014 renewal of the Scottish Sprint Cup were drawn, respectively, three, seven, 10 and 14. Yes, but that was on soft ground.
Okay, so the first four home in the 2013 renewal were drawn one, eight, 13 and three. (You know that it’s high when the stall number is in figures, you know that it’s low when it is in letters.) And that was on good to firm ground.
Actually, putting the 10 most renewals together, in the seven renewals that have been run on good ground or faster, 11 of the 28 places were filled by horses who were drawn between one and nine. In the five renewals that were run on good ground or softer, nine of the 20 places were filled by horses who were drawn between one and nine.
That suggests that there is a slight advantage to be drawn high, on any ground, but not a considerable one. And that looks about right.
And insofar as the market’s positive reaction to Kimberella’s high draw may have been exaggerated, so its negative reaction to Red Baron’s low draw may also have been exaggerated.
Eric Alston’s horse was racing off a mark that was 7lb lower than today’s mark when he won the race last year, but he won it well, and he has proven that he is well able to cope with his higher mark in the interim.
On his final run last season, for example, back at Musselburgh, the Moss Vale gelding finished second, beaten two and a half lengths by the 111-rated Danzeno off level weights, when he had the 105-rated Canny Kool a length behind him in third.
He has been running well this season so far. He hasn’t won, but three of his four runs have been good, one on the all-weather at Wolverhampton in March, and his last two, at York and Thirsk respectively.
His last run was particularly encouraging. Having set out to make all, as usual, he was passed at the two-furlong pole, but he kept on well all the way to the line to go down by less than two lengths to Judicial.
Judicial re-opposes today, and Julie Camacho’s horse is a player. He is progressive. But he is quirky, and he is 6lb worse off with Red Baron. That alone gives Eric Alston’s horse a chance.
Two other things, the two cornerstones of the case for Red Baron actually. Firstly, he loves Musselburgh. He has raced 11 times there, he has won four times and he has finished second four times. This will be the first time that he has raced at the Edinburgh track this season.
Secondly, and following on from his affinity with the track, this race is probably his primary objective for the season. This is a valuable prize and, given how well he goes at the track, it is probable that his trainer has been preparing him to reach his peak today. If he is at his peak, he is in such good form that a career-best could be forthcoming. And a career-best could be good enough to win this, off a mark of 100.
He goes well on fast ground and on good ground, and he has run well on easy ground at Musselburgh. Eric Alston has his small team in good form, his Blythe Spirit ran well in the Dash at Epsom on Saturday.
Red Baron was set to run in the Dash, but a small injury ruled him out. That could all be for luck, he should arrive at Musselburgh today fresh and well and ready to run for his life.
It is a good race, as befits a valuable prize like this, even if it is just three days before Royal Ascot gets under way. Kimberella is a worthy favourite, and Thesme and Judicial are both progressive young sprinters, while Secretinthepark could out-run massive odds. But, at current odds, Red Baron may be the value of the race.
£25 IN FREE BETS
