Derby day and we still don’t know if Dawn Approach stays a mile and a half. We’ll know soon enough now.
He might stay. His sire is New Approach, a Derby winner, sire of an Oaks winner now, and by Galileo, a stamina influence. He certainly wasn’t stopping at the end of the Guineas, he seemed, if anything, to get stronger the further he went. Also, he oozes class, he could out-class his opponents over any trip, and he settles so well in his races that he gives himself every chance of getting middle-distances.
There are negatives though. He is out of Hymn Of The Dawn, who never went beyond a mile in her racing career. She is by speed influence Phone Trick, and the only other winner that she has produced to date has never won at a distance in excess of seven furlongs.
Dawn Approach was campaigned like a future miler last year. He won on his debut over five furlongs, he won the Coventry Stakes and he won the Irish National Stakes, and he won the Dewhurst on his final run of the season, not the Racing Post Trophy. It all reads like Guineas horse, not Derby horse.
Actually, he wasn’t even entered in the Derby until he was put into it at the supplementary entry stage in April, and Jim Bolger said that, if Sheikh Mohammed hadn’t bought a 51% share in him, Epsom might never have been on his radar. He could have won the Irish 2000 Guineas last Saturday, then readied for the St James’s Palace Stakes before perhaps stepping up to 10 furlongs later in the season for the Juddmonte International or the Irish Champion Stakes.
On top of that, he is a C:C on Equinome, which suggests that his optimal trip lies somewhere between five furlongs and a mile. A mile and a half is a significant step beyond what should be his optimum.
So he might see out the trip, he might not see out the trip. The key question is, though, what is the probability that he will? Put a figure on it. 0.5? Because if he does stay, he will almost certainly win. 0.4? Odds of 2.5 say that the probability that he will stay is 0.4. Is that accurate or not? We’re down to opinions now. Are his odds too low or too high? To this set of eyes, everything into the mix: too low.
So if the favourite is too short, there is value in his rivals. Ballydoyle field a strong team. Battle Of Marengo is the obvious alternative, second favourite. He won the Ballysax Stakes, he won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial – this is the preferred route to the Derby for the Ballydoyle number one – he won the Beresford Stakes as a juvenile, he hasn’t been beaten since his racecourse debut, and he has been chosen by Joseph O’Brien in front of his four stable companions.
However, one of said stable companions, Ruler Of The World, might represent better value at 9.8 than Battle Of Marengo does at 7.0. Ruler Of The World didn’t race last year as a juvenile, but he stayed on well to win his maiden over 10 furlongs on his racecourse debut at The Curragh in April, and he stepped forward markedly on that to land the Chester Vase on his only subsequent run.
Of course, he will have to significantly improve again from that if he is to win a Derby, but that was just the second run of his life, and there is every chance that he will. He handled Chester’s tight turns well, which augurs well for Epsom, and he ran all the way to the line in that 12-furlong contest. He is the only horse in the field who is proven over the trip.
The fact that his stamina is proven already is, paradoxically, a little bit of a concern, in that he stays so well that he may not have the requisite pace for Epsom; that he may be more of a St Leger horse than a Derby horse. However, he showed plenty of pace at Chester, and he is a half-brother to the top class Duke Of Marmalade, who won his maiden over seven furlongs and who was a dual Group 1 winner over 10.
Ryan Moore rode him at Chester, and he retains the ride, which is a massive positive. Moore obviously knows the horse well, and he is a significant asset around Epsom. Ruler Of The World is well-drawn in stall 10, and he represents the best value in the race at current odds.
The two European challengers, Chopin and Ocovango, look a little over-priced also, despite the latter’s poor draw in stall one, while it wouldn’t be surprising if Dante winner Libertarian out-performed odds of 18.0. He may get out-paced on the run down the hill, but Team Ballydoyle are certain to make this a thorough test now in Magician’s absence, and that will suit Libertarian as much as it will suit Battle Of Marengo and Ruler Of The World.
There is a worry about Elaine Burke’s horse on the track, but the easyish ground will help a lot in that regard. He is just unfashionable. It is unusual for a Dante winner to be available at such big odds for the Derby.
If you are fielding against the favourite, you are allowed to get at least two on side, so perhaps start with Ruler Of The World, and then add one of Chopin or Ocovango or Libertarian.
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