There are a couple of routes into today’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. You could say that it is very difficult to carry big weights to victory in the race. You could point to the fact that only two horses in the last nine years have carried more than 10st 13lb to victory, and that only the top class pair, Bradbury Star and Cyfor Malta, both of whom excelled over two and a half miles at Cheltenham, have carried more than 11st 8lb since Very Promising in 1986.
If you were to adopt that line, you would start at the bottom of the handicap and work your way up. You would stop and have a look at Triolo D’Alene, you would note that the lowest weight at which Barry Geraghty had ridden in the last 12 months was 10st 2lb, and that he had committed to ride the five-year-old despite the fact that Nicky Henderson had three other entries in the race. (Okay, so AP had the pick of the two JP McManus horses, but there were still other good rides apparently available to Barry without the need for him to survive on a chicken wing and a half a bowl of pasta for the last five days.)
You might move on from Triolo D’Alene (too inexperienced, and all the value is gone now anyway) and alight on Walkon. Rated 143 over fences, 10lb lower than over hurdles, at his best when he is fresh, time to catch him is on his seasonal debut, goes well at Cheltenham, a little bit of rain won’t hinder. It’s all good stuff.
However, you could adopt the opposite approach. You could point to the fact that eight of the last 19 renewals were won by horses carrying 11st 2lb or more. You could conclude that class rules in this race, and that today’s renewal is the classiest renewal in ages, perhaps ever – seven horses are rated 155 or higher, compared to a maximum of three and a minimum of none in recent years – so you are probably going to need a well-handicapped horse who has class more than just a well-handicapped horse to win it.
If you were to do that, you would conclude that the Paddy Power would be won by a horse who would have the potential to go on afterwards and win the King George. If you did, you would say Grands Crus definitely, Al Ferof probably, Walkon possibly, Hunt Ball maybe.
There is no doubting Grands Crus’s class. He was a hugely impressive winner of the Feltham Chase at Kempton last December, beating Charlie Hall Chase winner SIlviniaco Conti and RSA Chase winner Bobs Worth, and clocking a faster time than Kauto Star clocked in winning the King George later on the day.
He did disappoint in the RSA Chase on his only run since, but that probably wasn’t his running. Either the trip at the track or the season was too long and he was just found out.
There is no doubting Al Ferof’s class either. He won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, beating the top class Nicky Henderson pair Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre into second and third places respectively, with Cue Card back in fourth, and he finished third in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot last January as a mere novice, just over three lengths behind subsequent Champion Chase hero Finian’s Rainbow. A mark of 159 is high enough, but it is difficult to argue that it is not merited.
On top of that, he goes well at Cheltenham, the step up to two and a half miles should be in his favour even though he has the pace for two miles, and Paul Nicholls has reported that he has been really happy with the horse over the last two weeks, that he has schooled and worked really well. Put the cherry that is Ruby Walsh on top of the cake that is the case for Al Ferof, and it is a compelling one.
Grands Crus is going to take a lot of beating, it is difficult to pick holes, and Al Ferof does have to concede 2lb to him, but the disparity in their respective odds (3.6 and 9.6) is probably greater than it should be. Al Ferof shouldn’t be three times Grands Crus’s price. He isn’t three times less likely to win the race than Grands Crus, if that makes sense.
You can argue the case for Hunt Ball, and the scribes would be assured of some colourful quotes from his colourful owner if he did happen to go and win. It would be some story – from a rating of 69 to winning the Paddy Power off 157 – but the hype has probably shortened his price at least a little, and it may continue to shorten today as the public latch on even more. I don’t know who the Morning Line guest today is, but if you were betting on it without any prior knowledge, you would put Anthony Knott in as clear favourite.
The afore-mentioned Walkon is also on my shortlist. He may not have the obvious class that Grands Crus and Al Ferof have, but he is still classy, he finished second in a Triumph Hurdle and he won a Matalan Anniversary Hurdle. As well as that, he gets 16lb from Al Ferof and 14lb from Grands Crus. That’s a stone for finishing a neck behind David Pipe’s horse in the RSA Chase. 9.2 is fair.
Of the rest, Forpadydeplasterer is thrown in on old form and he could be a player if it doesn’t rain overnight, and Micheal Flips is the other horse for whom you could make a case. He finished 13 lengths in front of Walkon in the re-scheduled Scilly Isles Chase at Newbury in February, and he is just 2lb worse off. But Walkon is better than he showed that day, he should leave that form well behind on his seasonal debut – at his best when he is fresh – and you just would have liked to have seen Micheal Flips run a little better on his seasonal debut at Ascot, albeit over an inadequate two miles.
I fear Grands Crus, but I am happy to let him run at 3.6. At the prices, I am with Al Ferof and Walkon.
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