Today’s Classic Chase at Warwick is one of those races that seems to get more difficult the longer you spend studying at it. You see more horses who have chances, and the shortlist that you have finalised tries to expand again.
It is not surprising that Pete The Feat is favourite. It would have been surprising three months ago, before he made his debut for Charlie Longsdon, when he was a 94-rated two-wins-in-12-chases eight-year-old who looked destined to race out his career in moderate midweek matinees.
What has happened in the last three months has been quite remarkable. He has raced five times and won five times, he has seen his handicap rating rise from 94 to 134, and he gives the impression that he is not done yet. He is this season’s Hunt Ball (or half of him anyway).
On his last run at Newbury, Peat The Feat raced too freely and his jumping was far from foot-perfect on occasion, yet he still won easily, with more in hand over the appropriately-named Relax than the five-length winning margin, and the first two were miles clear of their rivals. A 9lb hike for that performance is not harsh, he should stay today’s trip, he should handle the ground, and he has further scope for progression.
He has a lot in his favour, but he is short at 5.1 in a race in which there are many with chances. And he is not bomb proof. This will be his sixth run in the space of three months and five days, all of them over three miles or more, the last two on heavy ground. He is tough, but at some stage such a schedule has to catch up with him. His trainer did say during the week that he might skip today’s race, that he might give his horse a well-earned break. Longsdon obviously decided against that course of action, and he reports his horse in rude health, but there is still just a small chance that he will need a break soon.
Restless Harry is not massively priced at 8.0, but he is value at that in my book. Robin Dickin’s horse has just turned nine, but he still has lots of scope for progression as a staying steeplechaser.
A high-class novice hurdler – he was only beaten a half a length by Reve De Sivola in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle – he was probably just below the top grade as a staying hurdler (he could only finish ninth in the 2011 World Hurdle), but he was very good on his day, as he proved when he won the Grade 2 John Smith’s Hurdle at Wetherby on Charlie Hall day 2011 by 20 lengths, leaving horses of the calibre of What A Friend, Cantlow, Carlito Brigante and Fair Along well in his wake.
He only raced twice over fences last season, finishing a fine third behind Join Together and Teaforthree off level weights at Cheltenham on his debut, and then finishing second behind Teaforthree at Chepstow, when he had Cannington Brook well behind him in third place. Those two runs look rock solid now.
Returned to chasing on his penultimate run, he could only finish fourth of five behind Minella Class at Ascot, but he wasn’t beaten at all far, no more than four lengths in total after having to side-step a faller at the last fence, over an inadequate trip and at an unsuitably right-handed track. He stepped forward from that significantly on his most recent run at Newbury, when he stayed on really strongly and enthusiastically to come clear of Tullamore Dew and Stoney’s Treasure, ears pricked, winning with plenty in hand.
The handicapper raised him just 2lb for that win, which puts him back up to a mark of 140, the mark on which he began this season. He has huge scope in a mark of that magnitude, given that he was rated 157 over hurdles at his peak, and is still rated 150, 10lb higher. Also, that Newbury run was just his fourth run over fences, he seems to be improving as he gains in experience over the larger obstacles, and he has the potential to be a fair bit better than his current mark of 140. He will be suited by the left-handed track and he stays three miles well, giving the impression that he will stay further, so there is a real chance that he will improve again for this three miles and five furlongs.
He has never faced more than seven rivals at once over fences, the relatively big field is a little bit of an unknown, but he did run well to finish third behind Grands Crus in the 2011 Cleeve Hurdle in a field of 14. Also, he is a prominent racer, a front-runner, and it really doesn’t matter that much how many horses are behind you when you are in the van. Hopefully Henry Oliver can get him into a nice rhythm on or near the front end, and allow the horse’s stamina and enthusiasm take it from there.
There are plenty of others with chances. Rigadin De Beauchene is probably well-handicapped on a mark of 122. His run behind Well Refreshed at Lingfield last time looks even better now than it did then since Gary Moore’s horse went and dotted up in the Sussex National at Plumpton last Sunday off a 6lb higher mark. He will have a lovely weight of 10st 3lb after his rider’s claim, and Venetia Williams’ horses are on fire these days. However, you have to worry about today’s trip for Rigadin De Beauchene. He has never shaped like a horse who has been crying out for a step up to this extreme distance, and he may just be found out over the last two fences. 7.2 is short enough.
Quentin Collonges would be of interest at 11.0 if the ground didn’t ride too soft, he stays well and he has lots of scope for progression, while Major Malarkey may be a little over-priced at around 12.5. A close-up fourth in the race last year off a 5lb lower mark when he didn’t have the run of the race, this race has surely been on his radar for a while, and he warmed up for it with a nice run to go down by just a neck to Lively Barron in the London National at Sandown on his seasonal debut last month.
Of those at big prices, Universal Soldier and Benheir are the two most interesting for me. Benheir was impressive in beating Master Neo at Ffos Las on his penultimate run off a 7lb lower mark than today’s, and he wasn’t at all disgraced in finishing second to Carruthers on his most recent run, also at Ffos Las. Representing Team Teaforthree, he is only seven, he has raced just six times over fences in his life, and he has the scope to be a fair bit better than his current handicap mark as a staying chaser.
You have to forgive Universal Soldier an abysmal run in the Welsh National last Saturday but, if you do, he has a chance at a big price. He just didn’t perform at Chepstow, he was wider than ideal and he just couldn’t get into any sort of rhythm. Perhaps he didn’t handle the track, or the ground, or perhaps he rebelled against his first-time blinkers. He races in cheekpieces today, and it is significant that Charlie Longsdon is allowing him take his chance one week after the Welsh National, despite the fact that he also has the favourite in the race.
At current odds, Restless Harry looks the most over-priced horse in the win market, but it might not be a bad idea to keep Major Malarkey and Quentin Collonges on side as well, at least in the place market.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
