Just the 35 runners in today’s Cambridgeshire then.
I was a bit disappointed that Bronze Angel got into the race, I have to say. He was 38th on the list at the five-day stage, he just needed three to come out in order to allow him in, and they did. Three of them exactly. Now he’s in, number 35 of 35.
If I was Sheikh Mohammed, I might have kept Quick Wit in the race. Quick Wit would have kept the weights down for Man Of Action and Start Right, and he would have kept Bronze Angel out of the race. It wouldn’t have been cricket though, it wouldn’t have been right. Just as well I’m not Sheikh Mohammed. (I’d have probably crashed one of the Ferraris I would have bought by now as well.)
Bronze Angel has a big chance, he was noted as a horse to follow after he finished third in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, coming clear of the other horses who raced down the centre of the track.
You would have to be a little worried by the fact that he hasn’t raced since, mind you. It may be that Marcus Tregoning has been keeping him fresh, protecting his handicap mark for today, but that was a very risky strategy if he was, given that he was always going to be borderline, a three-year-old with his 5lb allowance on a mark of 95. If that was the strategy though, if that was the plan, then it has come to fruition perfectly. Bottom weight of 8st 8lb, William Buick booked, primed to run a mighty race. It’s just hard to argue that he’s value now at 13.0.
It can be a three-year-old’s race though – Formal Decree and Pipedreamer both won it as three-year-olds in the last 10 years – but I just prefer Chil The Kite to Bronze Angel at a not-much-shorter price. Chil The Kite is relatively lightly-raced, and he has significant scope for progression.
The difficulty with a relatively lightly-raced horse in a 35-running handicap is that he may not have the experience to deal with it. It’s a balancing act. You are looking for a horse who will be able to cope with a nine-furlong cavalry charge, but you also ideally want him to be progressive enough to potentially have something in hand of the handicapper. Chil The Kite could have that balance.
There is little doubt that Hughie Morrison’s horse is progressive. In five of his six runs since his racecourse debut, he has improved on the Racing Post Rating he achieved for his previous run. His latest run, when fourth behind Thistle Bird in a one-mile listed race at Haydock, was the best of his career to date on ratings. He just got a little tapped for toe when they quickened at the top of the home straight that day before staying on really well close home, leaving the strong impression that he would improve for slightly easier ground and for a step up in trip. He has both this afternoon.
The handicapper raised him 5lb for that Haydock run but, because the race was run after today’s weights had been published, he runs off his old mark, not his new one. Also, because he didn’t win the race, he doesn’t even have to carry a mandatory penalty. So he has 5lb in hand officially. But he was well worth that 5lb hike, you have to think that he can prove to be better even that his new mark of 102 suggests. He could have a fair bit more than 5lb in hand.
His draw in stall one is a little bit of a concern, right over on the far side, but the horses who raced on the far side at Newmarket yesterday and on Thursday didn’t seem to be disadvantaged, and low-drawn horses have won and run well in the race in the past. Blue Monday won it from stall three in 2005, and he was chased home by horses who emerged from stalls five and six respectively. Credit Swap won it from stall three in 2010. As well as that, Boom And Bust, usually a front-runner, is drawn right beside Chil The Kite in stall two. He could give him a nice lead into the race.
The ground, just on the easy of good, should be ideal, the nine-furlong trip should be perfect for now, and he ran really well at the track last September in a one-mile nursery, when he was in front plenty early enough and ran on well when he was passed to go down by just a half a length. He is better ridden behind the pace, ridden for a turn of foot. In that context, Richard Hughes is a really positive booking. Actually, in any context, Richard Hughes is a really positive booking. All looks set for a big run.
There are a couple of old buddies in here. This could be just the thing for Start Right, a fast-run nine furlongs, as long as the ground isn’t too soft. Stevie Thunder ran a cracker in the race last year from what turned out to be a poor draw and he has shaped in his last two runs as though he is coming back to form at just the right time, while Postscript just continues to progress and Swiftly Done would come right into it if it rained a little. I’ll be backing one or two of those four as well as Chil The Kite.
(Well, there are 35 of them.)
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