ANGEL WATCHES OVER THE CAMBRIDGESHIRE FIELD: Daqman’s revised stats ratings from his Wednesday preview has Bronze Angel waiting in the wings to take today’s Cambridgeshire but there is 21.0 and 39.0 value in the race worth taking.
LEAP ON THE LOCAL HERO: Daqman’s nap at Chester could take advantage of ground and draw in his favour, and an Aintree-quality jumps card at Market Rasen has its own local hero.
1.00 Newmarket The way my luck has been at Newmarket this week I could stop Frankel, even in this private gallop before racing!
I opposed both Telescope (8-13) and Certify (4-6) when their nearest rivals looked value at around 7-2. Both hot-pots won but, of course, if I continue to oppose them at that price and only get one winner, those odds-on shots need to win around half a dozen times to beat me.
They won’t. And the law of punting begins with two golden rules: don’t change your methods when you hit a losing run and always bet for value.
My second reversal was to opt for low numbers in the Silver Cambridgeshire: the result by stall was 25, 24, 7, 22, 20. Is that a portent for this afternoon’s Cambridgeshire proper? Maybe. But the immediate effect will be to have the split concentrate on the near side, and to reduce the odds about the high numbers. What do value-hunters do about that?
1.55 Newmarket (Royal Lodge Stakes) The one thing I got right this week is that the gullible Press and the crafty bookies would hype the winner of the Fillies’ Mile. Certify is down to 6-1 with Victor and Coral for next year’s 1,000 Guineas. You are mad if you take it; this time there are portends. More about that next week.
This Royal Lodge has been a better pointer to future success recently, with Jukebox Jury, Daddy Long Legs and a certain Frankel among the winners.
But, please note, only in one exceptional case, was this home Classic success. Before Frankel (2,000 Guineas), you have to go back 16 years to Benny The Dip (Derby).
Fantastic Moon was the one they wanted this morning after his Solario win over Mill Reef and Champagne Stakes placers Tha’ir and Master Of War. Mocenigo, who was fourth, takes him on again over an extra furlong but, the front-runner that day, he would have to accept restraint to have a real chance.
Afonso De Sousa represents Ballydoyle, who won it last year with Daddy Long Legs, and he, too, would have to change his front-running tactics (which failed to hold Steeler at York). Al Waab was boosted by Havana Gold yesterday.
Fantastic Moon and Steeler are bred for stamina, which should see off the rest. Once again, if you want to get involved early, you have fantastic value in the ‘book’ of BETDAQ offers, with an overall probability of only 105% as I write. The SP total in another two-year-old test this week, Telescope’s race on Thursday, was a shocking 121%.
2.25 Newmarket (Cheveley Park Stakes) This has thrown up 1,000 Guineas winners galore but, in recent years, only when trained in France; it was their big ‘look see’ at our form. When they don’t come over, it usually means they don’t have the quality this time around.
Maureen, with 11 other fillies to beat, is a shorter price this morning than Fantastic Moon against eight colts. She’d better be good!
Those who had already scored in the pattern have won 19 of the last 20, which suggests that Jadanna, Jillnextdoor, The Gold Cheongsam and Upward Spiral are not up to this.
The Queen Mary winner Ceiling Kitty has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning; just a few feeble barks for her at 14.5, as I write. In fact, it’s 14.5 bar four.
Seemingly down to three ‘live ones’ against Maureen, her 3.3 offers are suddenly looking not too bad, and we’ve already deleted one of the three, The Gold Cheongsam, as only a class-2 stakes winner, out of the frame in her sole Group start.
There is not much between Maureen and Lowther winner Rosdhu Queen on a line through Sandreamer. I think it’s between the two, so 6.0 Rosdhu Queen is the obvious opening position. The Lowther is a massive indicator for this, with 15 horses doing the double in my time.
3.00 Newmarket (Sun Chariot Stakes) Three-year-olds have the best record but haven’t won it for four years. Again the market insists that only three can score but this time the French have come over.
They have taken the last three with Sahpresa and the 10.5 BETDAQ offer Siyouma has a great chance on Falmouth form (4lb better for threeparts of a length with Elusive Kate), particularly if it rains. This was the stepping-stone Sahpresa took last year.
Siyouima will need Elusive Kate to set a strong pace if she is to get to her. Otherwise, only Laugh out Loud has been known to go on.
Beauty Parlour has no such problems over this mile, and comfortably beat Up at Longchamp in the Spring. She has been given most of the summer to settle in at Warren Place since moving from France.
A fresh horse is a worry for favourite backers but, yet again on BETDAQ, the 3.1 this morning looked better in a punter-friendly 104% overround. In the Sahpresa years, the Total SP has been 112%, 115 and 111.
The Leopardstown race awarded to Chachamaidee has produced the winner of this five times in the decade.
Elusive Kate will take some catching from the front unless it rains, in which case she may not hold Siyouma or Beauty Parlour. If it doesn’t, she has Chachamaidee a more potent threat.
You will know more at 3 o’clock than I do at 9 a.m. I will simply recall being shocked that a mare I fancied to follow, Golden Lilac, was unable to get to Elusive Kate at Deauville and that, on a line through Excelebration, ‘Kate’ would even get a fairly close up view of Frankel’s rear end.
3.40 Newmarket (Cambridgeshire, previewed on Wednesday) The revised stats ABC assessment, with the draw added, demotes Chil The Kite, Jack’s Revenge and King’s Warrior, since 11 of the last 13 winners were drawn in stalls 11 or higher, and four of the first five home in yesterday’s Silver Cambridgeshire came from 20 to 25.
That installs the Britannia third Bronze Angel (now ABCEF) – offered at 13.0 on BETDAQ as I write – in pride of place, and puts Mukhadram (11.0) and Loving Spirit (38.0) to the fore, with the same stats configuration.
Mukhadram and Bronze Angel are both lightly raced this season and both have top jockeys booked in Hanagan and Buick. I just worry, at the price, if Mukhadram isn’t too lightly raced overall; not the experience of the big-field battle.
On lines through Boom And Bust and Making Eyes, I fancy Swiftly Done is overpriced at 28.0. Mijhaar (13.0) is the dark horse of the race, dropped from Group company. Talk About (24.0) has also run in the Pattern. Postscript (28.0) is on the upgrade and has jockey of the season, Graham Lee, in the saddle. Prince Of Johanne (39.0), in stall 24, loves the blood and thunder, and has a valuable and reliable 5lb claimer up. Man Of Action (21.0) was continually hampered when only 8-1 for the race last year but would be scuppered by rain.
Cambridgeshire verdict: My order in is Bronze Angel, Man Of Action, Swiftly Done and Prince Of Johanne.
Nap of the day: At Chester, the grey Capaill Liath (3.30) will love the ground and is well drawn with jockey Philip Makin determined to redeem himself after being touched off, then failing to weight in, at Ayr.
Pick of the jumps: I shall be shouting for Local Hero (2.10) on a fabulous jumps card at Market Rasen. Local Hero is indeed just that, being trained a few miles down the road near Louth. The 7.8 gives you a chance to add a place bet to cover your win stake.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.6pts win FANTASTIC MOON (1.55 Newmarket)
BET 2.9pts win and place LOCAL HERO (2.10 Market Rasen)
BET 4pts win ROSDHU QUEEN and 1.7pts win (stakes saver) MAUREEN (2.25 Newmarket)
BET 8.8pts win ELUSIVE KATE (3.00 Newmarket)
BET 4.7pts win (nap) CAPAILL LIATH (3.30 Chester)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 2.5pts win BRONZE ANGEL, 1.5pts win MAN OF ACTION, 1.1pts win and place SWIFTLY DONE and 0.8pts win and place PRINCE OF JOHANNE (3.40 Newmarket)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Local Hero (2.10 Market Rasen), Rosdhu Queen (2.25 Newmarket) and Capaill Liath (3.30 Chester)
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