If you spent hours studying this afternoon’s Lincoln field on Thursday afternoon, and if you came up with a new-car double – if not quite a retirement double – in the mares’ novice chase finale and mares’ novice hurdle finale at Newbury as you sipped your cocoa late last night, well that’s just all too bad.
The snows that gripped Ireland yesterday and closed the M11 and forced the abandonment of Northern Ireland’s World Cup qualifier against Russia last night (presumably because Russia would have had an unfair advantage) have wended their way not just to the north of England, as had been expected, but also to the south, and claimed Newbury as well as Doncaster. Doncaster was odds-on to fall yesterday evening, but Newbury did look good, according to the weather forecasters. Alas, the Snows of March are unpredictable and indiscriminate.
At least your work on the Lincoln has not been in vain. The intention is to run the race next Saturday back at Doncaster, unseasonal weather notwithstanding, so hold that thought.
On the bright side, it does give you a chance to take an early sneaky look ahead to the Grand National, and you know that it is never too early to be having a sneaky look ahead to the Grand National. The whole world bets on the Grand National, so you may as well try to steal a march.
On His Own and Chicago Grey are the two most interesting horses for me at this stage. On His Own is not hugely original, he is ante post favourite after all, but he is 10.0 ante post favourite and, all things being equal, he will probably be an awful lot shorter than that on 6th April.
For starters, the chances are the Ruby Walsh will ride him. Okay, so Ruby could ride Prince De Beauchene, the other Willie Mullins horse who is high in the betting, or Join Together for Paul Nicholls, or he could even ride Seabass for his dad, or Colbert Station, also for his dad, if AP rides another one of the JP McManus horses. There are permutations at play. However, you have to think that, all things being equal, Ruby will ride On His Own, and that factor alone means that he will probably go off close to half his current odds. So, purely from a trading perspective, or from a value perspective, whatever your modus operandi is, you should probably have Graham Wylie’s horse on your side at least for now.
There is much more to On His Own’s chance than just the probable contraction of his odds though. For starters, he was the horse, more than any other horse, to take out of last year’s race. He found lots of trouble on the first circuit, yet he managed to survive, and he had manoeuvred himself into a lovely position in the front rank, travelling strongly, at Becher’s second time. Unfortunately, a loose horse impeded him slightly, he put in a short stride and landed too steeply. The last thing you want to be doing at Becher’s Brook, even the new improved Becher’s Brook, is landing too steeply.
Who knows how he would have fared had he stood up last year, he was only an eight-year-old last year, he was probably just a year too young, he had done a lot of running to get into the position in which he found himself, and Becher’s second time is still a long way from home in a National. But that run proved that he could handle Aintree conditions and that he could gobble up the big fences.
Winner of the Thyestes Chase last year, a really good pointer to the National, On His Own is nine this year, the ideal age for the race. He gets to race off the same mark as last year, he has been trained for the race this year, and he looked very good in winning a Grade 2 chase at Navan last month on his only run since last year’s National.
As a nine-year-old Willie Mullis-trained horse who ran a cracker in the race last year, he has a similar profile to the profile that Hedgehunter had going into the 2005 Grand National, and Hedgehunter was one of the most impressive National winners of recent times. All going well, On His Own has a big chance this year.
Chicago Grey is not as exciting as On His Own, but there is still a lot to like about him, and he also looks overpriced at around 17.0. Gordon Elliott’s horse jumped the first four fences well in last year’s National, it looked like he was really taking to the big fences, but he was brought down at the fifth.
He put in a couple of indifferent performances on his first two runs this season, but he shaped encouragingly in the three-and-a-half-mile chase won by Monbeg Dude at Cheltenham’s November meeting before he made a bad mistake at the fourth last fence. Well behind Bog Warrior and Zaidpour in the Galmoy Hurdle on Thyestes day at Gowran Park in January, he proved his current wellbeing by putting up his best performance for some time in winning at Grade 2 chase at Navan last month.
Gordon Elliott’s horse could be a seriously well-handicapped horse now. The British handicapper allowed him into the National on a mark of 141 at the time that the weights were framed, which was 2lb lower than his Irish mark. However, he was raised 6lb for his Navan win, but obviously the National weights are set in stone at publication stage, so he is effectively 8lb well-in in the National.
As a 10-year-old he is the right age for the race (nine and 10-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals and 13 of the last 17). Winner of the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in 2011, we know that he stays four miles, he goes on any ground, he will have a lovely racing weight of between 10st 7lb and 10st 10lb, and he has been trained for the race this year by the man who trained the 2007 winner. He is also well worth having on side at this stage.
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