What do you do when you think that the ground might have turned against you?
When I backed Astracad for today’s December Gold Cup at Cheltenham, the ground was good to soft, they were talking about some rain but not too much and, actually, they were more worried about frost than they were about rain.
Fast forward to Friday: rain, plenty of it, soft ground. They called it heavy at the start of racing Friday, and the times didn’t disagree, getting progressively slower as the day went on: 1.93secs/furlong slower than standard in the opener, slowing to 2.22secs/furlong slower than standard in the concluding novices’ hurdle, with only the 16-length winner Dark Lover breaking the 1.7secs/furlong barrier. Oh it’s heavy all right.
It isn’t that Astracad doesn’t handle soft ground – he won a novices’ chase at Perth last April on soft ground – it’s just that most of his form is on good or good to soft ground, and, crucially, you know that several of his big opponents are at their best on soft.
Okay, so he wasn’t that impressive in winning that novices’ chase at Perth, but that had more to do with the way the race was run than it had to do with ground conditions. Over two miles, a trip that is probably on the sharp side for him now, Sam Twiston-Davies was correct to ride him aggressively, snap at leader Oscar Hill’s heels and keep him honest, ensure a fast pace and consequently a stamina test at the trip.
However, Oscar Hill unseated his rider at the first fence down the back straight, and that wasn’t part of the plan at all. The exit of Gordon Elliott’s horse from the competition meant that Astracad was left on his own in a clear lead, and he didn’t really like that. In an instant, he went from this fluid athlete who was travelling kindly in the soft ground and jumping fluently, to a staccato animal who was pricking his ears, looking around him and jumping to his left.
It looked ominous when Kai Broon joined him at the last fence but, once Nigel Twiston-Davies’s horse had company, he concentrated again and pulled right away on the run-in to win by eight lengths. It wasn’t his ability that was ever in question.
He should get plenty of cover today behind a fast pace that suits him well. He is progressive, he loves Cheltenham, he won over two miles at this meeting last year, and he proved on debut this term that he is in fine form. That was in a good two-mile chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting, when he came under pressure and just got out-paced on the run down the hill, but he kept on really well on the run back up it to hold onto fourth place.
That was a good two-mile handicap chase. None of the first five home have run again since, but all of the other four horses who, along with Astracad, filled the first five places – Shooters Wood, Wetak, Silver Roque and Kid Cassidy – shape like high-class handicap chasers at worst.
That run by Astracad was just another piece of the pie that says that he really does need two and a half miles to be seen to best effect. He won two handicap hurdles over that trip, he won a two-and-a-half-mile novices’ chase at Perth in September 2011, and he seems to always stay on well when he races over two miles, whether he wins or loses.
The handicapper has dropped him 1lb for his run last month, which is a nice if unexpected bonus. It brings him back down to a mark of 144, which may under-rate his ability over two and a half miles by a fair way. He has only run twice over two and a half miles over fences, and his last run over the trip was 13 months and seven runs ago. Enthusiasm is dampened a little by the rain, but there is every chance that he will handle the ground okay and, as long as he does, there could be significant improvement in him at today’s trip. Odds of around 13.0 about him are more than fair.
So, back to the question: you probably back another horse in the race. My shortlist for a second bet in the race (it’s a good each-way race as long as all 16 remaining runners take their chance) on the ground is comprised of (in racecard order) Cristal Bonus, Walkon, Notus De La Tour, Golden Chieftain and Unioniste. Admittedly, it’s not a very original list, with four of the five on it occupying the top four places in the market, but that’s the way the race has shaken down now.
It is a big ask for Unioniste, a four-year-old racing from 6lb out of the handicap (the fact that Harry Derham takes of 5lb is neither here nor there) and having just his fourth run over fences. I think that the soft ground will help him a lot, it will mean that the pace will not be as frenetic as it would be on good ground and that he may get away with his lack of experience, and he is a really exciting prospect, but he is short enough at around 6.0 for all of that.
His stable companion Cristal Bonus also has an obvious chance, he looked good at Down Royal on his seasonal debut, he will love the ground, he hails from the all-conquering Paul Nicholls yard and he will be ridden by the invaluable Ruby Walsh. However, his record at Cheltenham is a bit of a worry. There have been excuses (he was out-classed over hurdles twice and he came home injured once) but the fact remains that his Cheltenham record reads 57P, while his record at all other tracks in Ireland and Britain reads 1121. For that reason, I am happy to let him run at around 7.0.
That leaves Walkon, Notus De La Tour and Golden Chieftain, all of whom are moderately attractive at respective prices. A 5lb hike for Walkon for his excellent run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (he was the only one to give the high-class Al Ferof a race, and he finished 12 lengths clear of the third horse) is not harsh, he handles soft ground well and he goes well at the track. There is a suggestion that he is at his best on his seasonal debut, but I wouldn’t worry too much about that, he improved all the way through the season as a juvenile hurdler.
Notus De La Tour is 12lb better off with Walkon for an eight-length beating at Exeter around this time last year. Since then, he has run a couple of excellent races in defeat in Ireland, behind Blackstairmountain and Flemenstar, and he has fallen early on in the Byrne Group Plate at the Cheltenham Festival. He looks at least fairly handicapped on a mark of 144, he is only six, he has raced just six times over fences, he will love the ground, this is probably his optimum trip, and he goes well when he is fresh.
Golden Chieftain has to step up a fair bit in class, but he looked very good in winning at Worcester in October in first-time cheekpieces. He ran well for a long way in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton on his only subsequent run, when the three-and-a-quarter-mile trip probably stretched his stamina beyond its limit, and Joe Tizzard wisely pulled him up before the third last, in a race in which just five of the 12 runners finished. The handicapper has dropped him back a handy 4lb, and he will be much happier back at two and a half miles today.
He did have a wind operation during the summer, so it is a little bit of a worry that Colin Tizzard reaches for a tongue-tie, especially on very soft ground, and he has run poorly twice in two visits to Cheltenham. That said, he was impressive in winning a novices’ hurdle at Exeter in February 2011 in heavy ground, and he is one of the more interesting outsiders in the race.
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