Strange the turns this game can take. I backed two horses during the week for this afternoon’s Northumberland Plate at Newcastle, Lieutenant Miller and Mubaraza. Of the pair, Lieutenant Miller was the better bet. Fast ground is important to him, but all the talk from weather forecasters and trainers and racecourse executives was of fast ground, so there were no worries on that front. On fast ground, Nicky Henderson’s horse looked more over-priced at 14/1 than Mubaraza looked at 12/1.
There was always a chance that he would be balloted out. It was looking like he was going to be on the cusp. At least if a horse is ballotted out, as opposed to withdrawn, you get your money back. It is one of those unusual instances in which ante post stakes are refunded. It’s not your fault if the horse doesn’t get into the race. If you can’t win, then you can’t lose either. He was always going to be borderline.
So declarations come through on Thursday morning, and, initial inspection, Lieutenant Miller is among them. Sigh of relief. Then you realise that he is first reserve, so he needs one horse above him to come out before Friday morning in order to allow him into the race. All day Thursday you scour the internet for hints of non-runners, but no. All appeared set for battle.
And sure enough, there were no scratchings by Friday morning, so it was the reserves who were scratched. Big disappointment. Lieutenant Miller had been as short as 8/1 in places. Then the rains came. Plenty of them. So much of them that they raced at Newcastle last night on ground that was officially described as good to soft, soft in places, a night on which the one-mile handicap was run in a time that was over seven and a half seconds slower than standard.
So it is a relief that Lieutenant Miller isn’t running. He probably wouldn’t have had much chance on that ground, he may not even have run. Stake saved instead of lost. It has been a roller coaster ride so far, and the race hasn’t even started.
There is also a ground concern about Mubaraza, mind you. (Just as well for racecourse weather forecasters that they do not bet on their forecasts for a living.) Ed Dunlop’s colt’s penultimate run behind Tiger Cliff – who would have been favourite for today’s race had he stood his, eh, ground – when he was left with plenty to do but stayed on well to finish third over a mile and six furlongs, was on fast ground.
However, while it wasn’t soft for his latest run in the Ascot Stakes, it wasn’t fast either. As well as that, he didn’t run at all badly on the only occasion on which he encountered soft ground, in a handicap at Newmarket last May when he was trained by Ed Dunlop’s father John, when he just kept on to finish fourth over an inadequate 10 furlongs. That run suggests that, while his improved form is on good and fast ground, he can handle easier conditions.
His Ascot run was top notch. He travelled well through the race, and he shaped like a real challenger at the top of he home straight, but the two-and-a-half-mile trip was probably just too much for him. Also, he got squeezed out of it a little when Tiger Cliff and Lieutenant Miller converged inside the final furlong. He wouldn’t have beaten either one of them, he was treading water a little at the time anyway, but the incident didn’t help, and he was an admirable fourth.
The handicapper raised him 1lb for that but, because today’s race is an early-closing race, he gets to race off his old mark of 92, so he is effectively 1lb well-in. Okay, it’s not a lot, but every 1lb counts in these big competitive handicaps.
More importantly, however, he is a progressive stayer who has the potential to be a fair bit better than his current mark, and two miles is probably his optimum trip. He is at the right end of the handicap, he is well-drawn in stall three, the long home straight should suit him well, Paul Hanagan is back riding winners since his Hardwicke Stakes spill, and trainer Ed Dunlop’s horses are in good form.
He could drift this morning if it rains more, and very soft ground would be a worry, but he is a son of Dalakhani, whose progeny generally do okay on soft ground, he is from the family of Salsibil, who won the Oaks and the Irish Derby on easy ground, and his race record suggests that ground on the easy side of good should be fine. He is over-priced at 10.5 or 11.
You do have to re-assess the race a little now on the changed ground. The money has come for the obvious beneficiaries, like Ardlui and Moidore and Il De Re, but Oriental Fox appears to have been missed a little, and he is interesting at around 20, while it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see old boy Blue Bajan out-run odds of around 24 by a fair way.
For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com
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