There is a groundswell of opinion gathering pace that last year’s novice chasers were not up to scratch, and that, consequently, the clever way to play today’s Hennessy Gold Cup is to field against the second-season chasers. I’m not so sure about that one.
You can see from whence the argument emanates, so to speak. At first glance, the sophomores haven’t been having that good a time of it this season so far. Time For Rupert was disappointing in the Betfair Chase last Saturday, Wishfull Thinking faded very badly after being strongly supported in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, and Medermit was fairly well put in his place by Master Minded and Somersby in the Amlin Chase at Ascot. Also, the general feeling was that last season’s renewal of the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, usually the premier race for the staying novice chasers, was not a vintage one.
One second though. Wishfull Thinking did disappoint in the Paddy Power Gold Cup for sure, but Philip Hobbs had a quiet week that week by his standards, and Wishfull Thinking still finished sixth after setting what was probably too fast a pace. Moreover, the four horses who filled places two to five between Great Endeavour and Wishfull Thinking were all novices last season.
Medermit was put in his place by Master Minded and Somersby, but he wasn’t beaten any further by that pair than he was beaten by fellow novice Captain Chris in last season’s Arkle, and Captain Chris would surely have beaten Medermit on his seasonal debut in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter at the start of this month had he not unseated his rider at the last.
On top of that, Quito De La Roque, one of last season’s leading staying novice chasers, beat Sizing Europe and The Nightingale in the JNwine.com Chase at Down Royal on his debut this season. Maybe the Class of 2010 wasn’t that bad at all.
In the context of the Hennessy, it makes sense that second-season chasers (note: not second-season novices – they are only second-season novices if they didn’t win a chase last season and are therefore still novices) are dominant, that they have won eight of the last 12 renewals.
In order to win a competitive handicap like the Hennessy, with all its history and all its prestige, a race at which horses have been targetted and for which they will have been primed, you are going to have to have a significant amount in hand of the handicapper. You are going to have to carry a weight that is significantly lower than the mark to which you are able to perform. The type of horse that is most likely to fit this criterion is the second-season chaser, the horse who has the potential to progress beyond the handicap mark that he has been allotted, the unexposed horse with whom the handicapper has not had the opportunity to get to grips because of his propensity to progress and because of a dearth of evidence.
We know that Great Endeavour is well-handicapped. The handicapper has raised him 10lb for winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup but, because the Hennessy is an early-closing race, for which the weights were framed before the Paddy Power was run, Great Endeavour gets to compete tomorrow off his old handicap mark, plus a 4lb penalty for winning the Paddy Power, so he is effectively 6lb well-in. Also, he does have the potential to be even better than that, he has raced just nine times over fences and he has every chance of staying the trip. There is no question that he has a big chance, but he may need to progress again, 6lb in hand may not be enough, and he is favourite now in most lists.
Planet Of Sound is also potentially well handicapped. The handicapper dropped him 5lb after his disappointing run in the King George last January, which means that he is now 8lb lower than he was when he was at his peak, when he won the Haldon Gold Cup in 2009. Also, he loves Newbury. However, he doesn’t have the same scope for progression that some of his rivals have and, even if he can perform to his old best, it is possible that even 8lb in hand will not be enough.
The Nicholls pair Aiteen Thirtythree and Michel Le Bon are two of the most unexposed horses in the race. Of the pair, I prefer Michel Le Bon. He has run just five times in his life, just once over fences, and there is no telling how good he could be, although it is a little bit of a concern for his supporters that Ruby Walsh rides his stable companion instead.
Aiteen Thirtythree’s form is not rock solid in my book – the ill-fated Tell Massini and Tarablaze were let down by their jumping in the two Newbury races that he won last season, and he is unproven in a big field like tomorrow’s – he has only completed three times over fences, and they were races in which he faced, respectively, four, three and two rivals.
The market is going against last season’s novices at this stage, and there is a little bit of value to be had with them in my book. Wymott is 4lb lower over fences than he is over hurdles, a rating of 144 could under-estimate his ability considerably, it looked like he was going to be one of the leading staying novice chasers last season, he has significant untapped talent at present, and he has the excellent Graham Lee for company. The Giant Bolster was a 10/1 shot for the Paddy Power Gold Cup and he is a 20/1 shot for the Hennessy, yet he should be better suited by the longer distance and the flatter, straighter track tomorrow, and you can easily forgive his unlucky unseat at the first fence in the Paddy Power. If Yogi Breisner has succeeded in ironing out his jumping issues, then he is well over-priced.
Wayward Prince is a doughty stayer who has the potential to go beyond a mark of 150, and Tullamore Dew is interesting stepping up in trip off a low mark and at a big price. The value lies with the sophomores for me.
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