Declaration Of War, JLT Lockinge Stakes today: for or against?
There are many reasons to be against. Firstly, he is short, and your natural instinct with short ones is to try to take them on. Look for chinks. Look for reasons why they might not win, why they might be under-priced. If you can find an under-priced favourite, then you have a chance of finding at least one over-priced rival.
Secondly, he has plenty to find on ratings and on form. On official ratings, he has 12lb to find with Cityscape and Farhh. On Racing Post Ratings he has 9lb to find with Cityscape and 12lb to find with Farhh. On Topspeed ratings, he is not at the races. He is lowest-rated of the entire field on 80, no less than 54 spots lower than Cityscape and 56 lower than Farhh.
The big thing about the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt, however, is his promise, his potential, and that is something on which you cannot put a figure. Cityscape is a top class horse, a Group 1 winner, but after 22 runs we know exactly how good the seven-year-old is. Not as good as Canford Cliffs, not as good as Excelebration.
Farhh is less exposed, he has run just eight times in his life, but he was beaten in his most recent five races, so we are getting a handle on the Godolphin horse is as well. Not as good as Frankel, but then who is or ever was? Not as good as So You Think. Almost as good as Moonlight Cloud, and that’s pretty good.
With Declaration Of War (pictured), however, we have no idea where the limit of his ability lies. It is only when a horse gets beaten that you can begin to put an upper limit on his ability, and the War Front colt has been beaten just once in six runs. That was on his 2012 debut last September, his first run for Aidan O’Brien, and you can allow him that.
Before that, he had won both times that he had run while in the care of Jean-Claude Rouget in France. Since then, he has won the three races that he has contested from Ballydoyle: a 10-furlong conditions race on heavy ground at The Curragh, a 10-and-a-half-furlong Group 3 race on Polytrack at Dundalk, and a one-mile Group 3 race on soft ground at Leopardstown.
The form of those three runs falls some way short of what is required to win a Group 1 contest – hence the 12lb deficit with Cityscape and Farhh – but the visual impression created by all three has been striking. His most impressive performance was his latest, his debut this term, when he sauntered away with that Group 3 contest at Leopardstown, leaving some useful rivals in his wake. Of course, he is going to have to step up again if he is to win a Lockinge Stakes, but the indications in that regard are decidedly positive.
It was interesting that Aidan O’Brien nominated the Lockinge Stakes as Declaration Of War’s primary target almost immediately after the Leopardstown race. Aidan doesn’t have many runners in the Lockinge. Famously, he ran Hawk Wing in the race 10 years ago, and Hawk Wing put up one of the most impressive performances any miler ever put up in the pre-Frankel era.
Aidan ran Haradasun in the Lockinge in 2008 and, while the Antipodaean could only finish sixth, it was his seasonal debut, his debut for Ballydoyle and his first run in the Northern Hemisphere. A month later, he went and won the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, proving that the trainer had been correct in assessing him as a Group 1 miler up here.
Excelebration represented Ballydoyle in the Lockinge last year and, while he was obviously no match for Frankel, he also proved that he was a top class miler by landing the Prix Jacques le Marois and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes while Frankel was off doing other things. It would be surprising if Declaration Of War did not prove himself to be a Group 1 miler.
Farhh probably poses a greater threat than Cityscape simply because he has the potential to be better than he has shown to date. The Saeed bin Suroor-trained horse progressed from winning the Thirsk Hunt Cup on his debut last season off a mark of 100 to end the season, quintuple Group 1 placed, on a mark of 124, and there is the promise of more to come this season as a five-year-old.
However, apart from the fact that Declaration Of War has even greater potential for progression, there is also the worry about the Saeed bin Suroor horses. The Godolphin trainer has had just one winner in Britain this term so far. Sixteen runners, just one winner (Ehtedaam at Newmarket yesterday), a second, a third, two fourths, 11 also-rans. Okay, so maybe the yard has to crank through the gears yet this season, and Farhh is sure to have been trained for this race, but it is not the record that you want to be taking with you into a Group 1 race.
There are other interesting horses in the race. Beauty Parlour is interesting, she was a top class filly for Elie Lellouche, winner of the French Guineas and second in the French Oaks last season, who is now with Henry Cecil. However, she did disappoint on her debut for Cecil in the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket last September, and she is going to have to bounce back to top form on her seasonal debut if she is to beat the boys.
Trumpet Major and Fencing are also interesting. Trumpet Major wasn’t far off the top three-year-old milers last season (he was only beaten four lengths by Camelot in the Guineas) and he was impressive in winning a Group 2 race on his debut this season at Sandown, but he is going to have to step forward from that if he is to win today.
Fencing is even more interesting. John Gosden’s horse shaped as a high-class miler as a juvenile, but his three-year-old seasaon didn’t really gain any momentum in 2012. Gelded during the winter, he bounced back to form on his debut this term to win a listed race at Ascot two weeks ago, and he should be able to progress from that.
All things into the mix, however, and Declaration Of War is the most likely winner of the race. He had contracted to a very short price earlier in the week, but he is back out to 3.4 or 3.5 this morning, and that is fair. He could go off a fair bit shorter than that.
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