Weird Al, I said. Ah no, not Weird Al again, he said. ‘Fraid so, I said. (Resigned look, he said.)
Call it a soft spot, call it following Weird Al over a cliff if you will, but perhaps it’s something else. Every race is a puzzle, you try to figure each one out, use all the information and knowledge that you have, try to piece it together, try to decipher the probability and resultant odds that correspond to each horse’s chance of winning the race in your estimation (because every horse in every race has some chance of winning, however small). Then compare that against the odds that are available, and back the one(s) that is (are) most over-priced.
The problem arises when you think that a horse is consistently under-rated and therefore over-priced. If he keeps on losing, there comes a point at which you have to come to the realisation that you might be wrong about him, that, actually, he may not be as good as you thought. Or that you were wrong about his optimum conditions, or that he may not ever have his optimum conditions, or that, actually, the market has been right about him all along and you have over-estimated him.
That point is no doubt coming soon with Weird Al, but it isn’t here yet, and he looks over-priced again at about 9 in this afternoon’s Argento Chase at Cheltenham.
Donald McCain’s horse has a lot in his favour today. Admittedly, he had a lot in his favour in the Lancashire Chase at Haydock last time as well, but there was one key element missing that day: pace.
The Lancashire Chase was a five-runner race, and nothing wanted to lead. As it happened, Ruby Walsh accepted an easy lead on Silviniaco Conti, dictated a pace to suit himself, and rode his rivals to sleep. Not that Silviniaco Conti wasn’t the best horse in the race on the day anyway, he almost certainly was, possibly by a fair way, but the way the race was ultimately run was all against Weird Al.
He was keen early on behind the sedate early fractions, then he got out-paced when they quickened half way down the back straight before staying on again from an impossible positions from the second last fence. He only missed out on third place by a short head, and he finished just seven lengths behind the winner and only four and a half lengths behind Long Run, who won the King George on his next run. Even on the face of it, even without allowing for the fact that the race wasn’t run to suit, that is high-class form.
There should be no problem with pace this afternoon. Midnight Chase likes to be getting on with things, and if anything leads Little Josh, even over an extended three miles, he is probably going too fast. There should be lots of pace on early, and that will be ideal for a hold-up horse like Weird Al, who should be able to settle out the back early, get into a nice rhythm. It should also ensure that stamina will be at a premium, and Weird Al has plenty of that.
The Haydock race was run over three miles dead. The extra furlong and a half today, coupled with ground that will probably be soft and dead, having lain under frost covers for over a week now, will also bring stamina into play, and that should suit well.
There’s more. He has an abundance of talent, as he showed in the Charlie Hall Chase and in the Lancashire Chase last year. Also, he is at his best when he is fresh, so the 63-day break between the Haydock race and today’s is in his favour, as is the fact that this will be just his second run of the season. On top of all of that, he goes well at Cheltenham, he has won twice from four runs there. His two losses were in two Gold Cups, when he burst blood vessels. Both times. So, every time he has run at Cheltenham and hasn’t broken a blood vessel, he has won.
He is risky, a history of broken blood vessels is not a good thing, and you have to factor that in. However, his odds are big enough to allow you do that. He is 10 years old now, he is not a young progressive chaser any more, but he is still lightly-raced for his age. This will just be his 14th race under all codes, and that is not a lot.
You can pick holes in the others. Midnight Chase would surely prefer better ground, Hunt Ball’s stamina is unproven, and he has reportedly been held up a little with the freeze, and Cape Tribulation is probably a better hurdler than he is a chaser. Imperial Commander is obviously very interesting, but the 2010 Gold Cup winner is 12 now, and he hasn’t raced in almost two years and he is only a 6/1 shot.
Tidal Bay has been ruled out of this afternoon’s race after failing to recover from the setback he suffered earlier this week.
The other horse of obvious interest is Grands Crus, and he is a player. However, he still just has to prove his stamina for three miles one and a half furlongs on testing ground at a stiff track off a fast pace. There will be no hiding place today, and, talented performer though he undoubtedly is, that just may not suit David Pipe’s horse.
I’m giving Weird Al another chance at the price. Last chance. Honest.
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