THE NORTHERN TRUST: The FedExCup Playoffs kick off this week at Liberty National in northern New Jersey, a course with stunning views of the New York City skyline and the Statue of Liberty. The views are more for the fans, though, as the players will have their hands full with the 7,400 yard Robert Cupp/Tom Kite design that features difficult greens, multiple water hazards, and lengthy approach shots. This will most assuredly not be a repeat of TPC Boston last year, when Dustin Johnson blew away the field at 30-under (!) to collect his third Northern Trust title. The course will put up a fight this week.
The field here is comprised of the top 125 in the FedEx Cup standings, and only the top 70 at the conclusion of Sunday’s play will head down to Maryland for next week’s BMW Championship at Caves Valley, so the players who just squeezed in around that 125 mark will need a big week to advance. This is the intrinsic difficulty with a “playoff” concept in a sport like golf– if you made it a true Playoff Series, where everyone starts on equal footing with an equal chance to win, it would devalue the regular season and hurt the guys near the top of the standings. Conversely, a format like the current one puts so much weight on where you are in the standings entering the playoffs that it reduces or eliminates the “anything can happen/anyone can win” feel that most sports strive for in a postseason tournament. At any rate, we now have a couple more big events to keep us entertained, and I would think this current setup will be regarded as moderately successful as long as the top players keep showing up.
This will mark the fourth time that Liberty National has hosted this event, and the three previous champions– Patrick Reed (2019), Adam Scott (2013), and Heath Slocum (2009)– are all very different stylistically, which speaks to one of the course’s best traits, which is that it doesn’t cater to one specific style or shot-shape. It’s a grind out there, and the winner this week must avoid mistakes off the tee and be dialed-in with the mid-to-long irons. “Bomb and gouge” is not applicable this week.
As expected, the field is among the strongest we’ve seen all year, with Jon Rahm heading BETDAQ’s Win Market at 10.5 and no fewer than eight players priced in the 18.0-29.0 range. And don’t forget about the longshots– several guys around the 125 mark in the standings have had to play some great golf just to squeeze into the field, so they’ll be in-form and playing with that “house money” feel… look out for another Heath Slocum. Taking all that into consideration, here’s what I’m thinking this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jon Rahm (10.5)- Picking the favorite is less rewarding in every way than selecting a winner from the more exotic longer-odds options, but sometimes it’s the right call, and considering the roll that Rahm has been on lately I don’t think the price here is unreasonable at all. He was forced to miss the Olympics due to (another) positive COVID test, but when he’s been out there he’s left no doubt as to who is the world’s top player, racking up three top-10s in his last four starts, including his U.S. Open victory and a T3 at the Open Championship (and of course his lone “non top-10” in that stretch was the Memorial, when he held a 6-shot lead entering the final round but was forced to withdraw). With his putting and on-course attitude having turned into strengths as opposed to weaknesses, the sky is truly the limit for Rahm, and he’ll be a difficult man to beat each and every time he tees it up. He had great success at Liberty National in 2019, opening with a 64 and going on to finish T3, so there are no concerns about his ability to succeed at this course… or any course, really. It’s Rahm’s time, and he’s got a great chance to add some hardware to his crowded trophy case this week.
Patrick Reed (49.0)- After hoisting the trophy at Liberty National in 2019 you know that “Captain America” enters this week full of confidence, and though he hasn’t landed a top-5 since the Memorial back in June, he’s quietly been playing some solid golf lately, finishing 35th or better in 6 of his past 7 starts. It’s been 25 rounds since Reed has failed to shoot par or better in a non-major, so he’s nothing if not consistent, and with the way his putting stats have been ticking up lately– now 6th on Tour in strokes gained putting– a breakthrough performance could be on the horizon. If Reed can consistently find fairways this week, he’ll be as dangerous as any player in the field, making him a nice value at nearly 50/1.
Kevin Kisner (166.0)- Though his victory in last week’s Wyndham Championship was Kisner’s first win in a stroke play PGA Tour event since 2017, it didn’t totally come out of the blue, as he had two top-10s in his previous four starts and has generally turned things around since an uncharacteristically poor stretch over the spring and early summer. Putting is the strength of his game, and he’s been terrific on the greens this season, but it’s been accuracy off the tee– 23rd on Tour in driving accuracy percentage– and vast improvement in his iron play that has keyed his current run. Liberty National requires precision ball-striking, so Kisner will have to maintain his tee-to-green momentum, but he knows that quite well and it didn’t bother him in 2019, when he opened with a 64 here and went on to finish 12th. Remember when we talked about the guys who were in-form and playing with house money? Well, that’s a pretty good description of Kisner this week, making him a tremendous value at a price like 166.0.
