With just two weeks until they tee it up at The Masters, as always there is a strong field for the Shell Houston Open. And playing conditions at Redstone Golf Club in Humble will resemble those at Augusta National.
It is why the likes of World No.2 Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson and Brandt Snedeker turn up to hone their blades at the 7,457-yard par 72 course – that and the none-too-small purse of $6.2 million.
Hunter Mahan, whose 16-under-par effort was good enough to take home the winner’s cheque of almost $1.1m last year, is back to defend his title.
Tiger Woods, who has been a layers’ nemesis so far this season, is laying up in preparation for what he hopes will be his first victory at Augusta for eight years.
Yes, remarkably it is that long since he holed that incredible chip on the 16th – where the ball hung on the lip before falling into the cup. That was his fourth Green Jacket in nine attempts and he seemed sure to overtake Jack Nicklaus’ record of six Masters wins.
Woods, as we highlighted last week, is beginning to get his swagger back. His eighth win at Bay Hill and his third of the season means Eldrick is undoubtedly the man to beat in a fortnight.
“It’s been years since I’ve hit the ball this consistently day-in and day-out,” he said, after his two-stroke victory over Justin Rose.
Confidence has returned to his game and that means there’s less confidence to go round. Bay Hill and Redstone have one thing in common with Augusta: there is a relative lack of penalty for errant driving and it rewards accurate chipping and putting. It is a scrambler’s track.
With Woods holing 27-yard putts up the hill last weekend and his short game – particularly his irons – hitting their mark with unerring accuracy, who is to say he won’t win at Augusta?
After all, it is the place where he is most likely to win another Major. His worst finish in those barren years between 2006 and 2011 was sixth place (you can forgive his 40th place finish last year, as he was only just starting to get his head right after an acrimonious divorce).
While Woods has Georgia on his mind, the European contingent will be out to end a run of 13 American winners on the PGA Tour at Redstone, which as 60 bunkers and 13 water hazards.
This course plays long and it is worth paying close attention to those who can boom the ball. Players who hit a lot of greens in regulation should go on the shortlist.
The final two holes at Redstone both measure up at more than 480 yards each and play as par 4s, so birdies here will be at a premium. There are four par-5s on the course, so those with good par-5 records are worth noting as well.
Rain and thunderstorms are forecast for over the weekend which might make things interesting come Sunday, so the back-to-lay traders might have something to get their teeth into.
As expected, the Americans dominate the betting, aside from McIlroy, who heads the field at 11.00.
And while Woods was playing like a good favourite heading in to Bay Hill, McIlroy is still finding his form.
He is expected to have a Top 10 Finish, however, and can be backed confidently at 2.06 with BETDAQ to do just that. While his game seemed in worse shape than the Cypriot banking system at the beginning of March – a trough which saw him storm off the course in the middle of the second round at the Honda Classic – he seemed to get back in a rhythm at Doral, blasting a final round 65.
McIlroy spent last weekend practicing at Miami Municipal, while his girlfriend, tennis start Caroline Wozniacki, competed in the Miami Masters. The break should have re-energised Northern Ireland’s World No.2. Expect nothing less than a bold showing as a victory would propel him past Woods to the No.1 spot again.
You can’t rule out Mickelson either, despite his dreadful outing in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he missed the cut after a shooting a 79 on Friday. As we said last week, Bay Hill has never been his course.
Furthermore, Houston has not always been kind to him. In 2010, he was T30 at Bay Hill, followed by T35 at Redstone. The following week he won the Masters.
A year earlier, Lefty missed the cut at Redstone and still finished fifth at Augusta. Just for good measure, he won in Houston two years ago – then was a disappointing T27 at Augusta. Figuring him out would enough to drive Howard Hughes sane.
Regardless of what he does here, it is worth remembering – despite his putting woes at present – that Mickelson has only twice been out of the Top 10 at Augusta twice in the last 14 years. Hand him a bunch of magnolias and he’ll do anything for you.
So who are the men likely to throw down the gauntlet to McIlroy this weekend? Here’s our top trio to follow:
Hunter Mahan @ 19.0
Last year’s winner returns to his home state of Texas in an event where he’s recorded four Top-15 finishes in his last five starts. Long off the tee, he’s hitting plenty of greens in regulation, has made seven cuts and finished runner-up in the WGC Accenture Match Play Championship. He’s had one round under 70 in the last eight, which is very un-Mahan-like. Expect to see him challenging on Sunday on a course where he loves (T5 in 2007, T6 in 2009 and T8 in 2011).
Lee Westwood @ 38.0
Westwood spent 22 weeks at the top of golf when he supplanted Woods as World No.1 in October 2010, but with a new coach and a new caddy, the 39-year-old’s gamble to move to America has not yet paid off, with a T9 in the Honda Classic his best finish. So why put your faith in one of the best players never to win a Major?
Redstone is set up to mimic The Masters course, and outside of Woods there are few players who have been as consistent at Augusta than Westwood. In at least four Majors he has been the best player from tee to green, finishing runner-up and third twice in his last four visits, but has yet to get over the finish line.
He finished T8 at Houston in 2010, 28th last year and has not missed the cut here in seven starts. His price reflects his chance but it is around this time of year that his game comes out of hibernation.
Henrik Stenson @ 48.0
Long off the tee, at Bay Hill last week the Swede ranked first in driving accuracy and second in GIR on his way to an eight-place finish. He will relish the par 5s, and his iron play seems to have improved markedly. He’s third in scrambling, and first in scrambling from the rough. Currently 53rd in the World Rankings, he needs a strong result to get into The Masters. Don’t be surprised if he gets it – and he’s worth a punt at 5.1 at BETDAQ for a Top-10 Finish.
Tournament Match Bets
Chris Kirk to beat Jimmy Walker
Kirk has only played here once and that was a T2 in 2011. He played well at Bay Hill, has a second-place finish already and has driving and putting stats similar to Mahan.
Dustin Johnson to beat Brant Snedeker
Upset alert. The cobwebs were blown away at Bay Hill following five weeks on the sidelines with a rib injury. So expect to see a much more confident Snedeker against a man who has not made the cut at this venue in two previous attempts. However, this is a different Johnson from the one who left this venue off his schedule since 2009. This course should play to his skills and with Augusta in mind, it appears that this is more of an emergency start for Snedeker.
Keegan Bradley to beat Steve Stricker
Stricker has four Top-11 finishes here since 2006 and was T4 in 2011, so this is no certainty. He’s playing a light schedule (two stroke-play events and finished runner-up in both) which suggests this is more a tune-up for The Masters. Bradley, who tied for fourth here last year and was a solid T3 at Bay Hill last weekend, gets the slimmest of votes.
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