Indianapolis Colts (10-5, 9-5-1 ATS) @ Tennessee Titans (2-13, 3-11-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -7.5 (46.5)
Significant Injuries
Indianapolis: G Hugh Thornton (questionable– knee), G Joe Reitz (questionable– ankle), WR T.Y. Hilton (questionable– hamstring), OT Gosder Cherilus (questionable– groin), TE Dwayne Allen (questionable– knee)
Tennessee: OT Taylor Lewan (questionable– ankle), LB Zaviar Gooden (questionable– hamstring), QB Zach Mettenberger (doubtful– shoulder)
Recent Trends
Indianapolis is 18-3 ATS in their last 21 games against a team with a losing record
Indianapolis is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games against AFC South opponents
Indianapolis is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss
Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Tennessee is 2-12-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss
Tennessee is 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 4-1 in Indianapolis’ last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 4-1 in Indianapolis’ last 5 games overall
The OVER is 11-4 in Tennessee’s last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 14-5 in the last 19 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. The Colts are 10-5 and have locked up the AFC South, while Tennessee is quite possibly the worst team in the entire league. The Titans have lost 9 straight games and are now 2-13 on the year. They’ve covered just once in their last 11 home games against teams with winning records, and they’re now down to 3rd-string quarterback Charlie Whitehurst after season-ending injuries to Zach Mettenberger and Jake Locker. When these teams met back in September it was an absolute laugher, with the Colts cruising to a 41-17 win. Expect more of the same this time around.
2. The Andrew Luck-led Indianapolis offense is one of the league’s most explosive units, ranking 3rd in total yards per game and 5th in points scored. Luck leads the NFL in pass yards per game, and this week he’ll have an opportunity to carve up a Tennessee defense that has allowed more points than any team in the AFC. It could get ugly, just like it did the last time these teams met.
3. The Colts are locked in to the 4-seed in the AFC playoffs, so this game is essentially meaningless for them. That’s why the line here is 7.5 instead of 9.5 or 10, which is where it would be if Indy needed the game. However, because they played so poorly in a loss to Dallas last week I think we can expect the Colts to be at their absolute best on Sunday. You can be sure they don’t want to head into the playoffs on the heels of two straight poor performances, and Tennessee is a division rival. This game won’t be competitive.
Three reasons to back Tennessee
1. As a sports bettor, the goal is always “buy low, sell high”. Well, here we have a prime “buy low” opportunity: nobody wants to touch the Titans right now, which is why they’re a 7.5-point home ‘dog against an Indianapolis team that’s coming off a 35-point loss. Not only are the Colts coming off a miserable performance, but they’ve already clinched the 4-seed in the AFC playoffs, so this game is essentially meaningless for them. That means it’s anybody’s guess how long their starters will play, which makes in Indy bet a risky proposition, to say the least.
2. The Titans have been competitive in their last two games, holding 2nd-half leads each time before losing. They have a veteran quarterback under center in Charlie Whitehurst, and this week Whitehurst will face a vulnerable Indianapolis defense that ranks 20th in points allowed. The Titans will be able to move the ball in this game.
3. The Indianapolis offense is “pass-first” to the point of being one-dimensional: they simply can’t run the ball, and that’s been especially true since top tailback Ahmad Bradshaw went down with a season-ending injury. The Tennessee defense, meanwhile, can’t stop the run, but they’re excellent in the secondary, surrendering just 230 pass yards per game. The Colts won’t be able to exploit the Titans’ primary weakness, which will make covering a healthy 7.5-point number a bit difficult.
Prediction
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