IT’S A BIG-RACE DOUBLE WHAMMY: Daqman went 9-5 up on Pricewise (117-64 overall) with a double whammy in the King George at Kempton yesterday, a lay on Champagne Fever (4th 9-2) and his headline nap on Silviniaco Conti (WON 6-5) ‘still to be king of Kempton.’ He also had a place bet up at 7-1 in the other Pricewise race (not counted) and made an overall profit on the day.
FOUR BANKERS WIN OUT OF FIVE: Daqman, who started Kempton with a winner, Stellar Notion (WON 4-1), had two out of two headlines win yesterday (following a 6-1 the previous racing day), when he put maximum stakes on Faugheen (WON 4-11). That gave him four winning bankers out of five, after Irish Saint (WON 6-5), Coologue (WON 5-4) and Made With Love (WON 1-7).
18.5 NATIONAL BET ON THE DAQ: Now read on as Daqman tries for a hat-trick of Christmas headlines today, with his famous ABC guide to the Welsh Grand National, in which he has picks at between 11.5 and 18.5 on BETDAQ this morning, plus more bets against Pricewise in the 2.15 Kempton and the big handicap at Leopardstown (2.55).
THEY HAVEN’T A PRAYER IN THE NATIONAL
2.35 Chepstow (Welsh Grand National): There’s a 22lb weight-range handicap to please the betting public, with young lightweights usually winning the day. But be warned that this is a sub-standard race.
Mountainous won it last year off 137, carrying 10st. But this year, though he is officially rated only 3lb higher on 140, he will carry 11st 3lb, suggesting that this renewal is a stone behind last year in quality. Here’s my horse-by-horse guide on trends:
A Aged six, seven or eight (13 out of 17)
B Carrying 10st 5lb or less (11 out of 17)
C Winner at 3m or more (10 out of 10)
D Had run in six or fewer handicap chases (9 out of 10)
E Had finished in first five in a Grand National or similar marathon, including Hennessy or NH Chase (8 out of 10)
ABCD WOODFORD COUNTY
Has gone up 10lb this year, showing steady improvement. Tough, staying sort from a yard having a wonderful season, and success has come on very soft or heavy ground.
Fans of the seven-year-old remember him winning on this Chepstow course early in the year when, though making mistakes, he refused to be beaten. Michael Nolan’s claim drops Woodford County to bottomweight today but he has a lot to prove.
ABC HANDY ANDY
Good, honest sort, by same sire as a World Hurdle winner and an RSA champion. Only fifth in big amateurs’ handicap at Cheltenham in November but third and fourth, Broadway Buffalo and Mister Grez, have won recently.
Third to Victor’s Serenade and Monbeg Dude at Chepstow, the trio closely handicapped now. That was the first run back for all three.
ACDE SHOTGUN PADDY
Lightly raced – only 10 hurdles and chase runs – and 1321 over fences, only 4lb higher than when winning 3m 5f Warwick Classic (very soft) in January on handicap debut.
Pipped a neck by Midnight Prayer on faster ground for 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham. Has had a run back over hurdles and unfortunate to face weights rise by defections at the top of the handicap. Stays all day.
ACD AMIGO
Seventh in this race to Mountainous and Hawkes Point last year, One In A Milan fourth, with weights adjusted accordingly.
Divided Rebeccas Choice and Hawkes Point in the Welsh Grand National Trial over 3m three weeks back, with Mountainous fifth, and is the one well in here on that form, if his jumping holds up.
ACD EDMUND KEAN
Pulled up Scottish Grand National in April on first run out of the novice stage. Graded hurdler and only nine races under Rules, winning four of them. Usually ridden by Tom Scudamore, who switches to family runner, Monbeg Dud.
ACE EMPEROR’S CHOICE
One-paced type, has taken him two years to improve 11lb. Well behind 2013 NH Chase; some 22 lengths off Shotgun Paddy in Warwick Classic in January, and, on seasonal return, 13 lengths at levels behind Gas Line Boy (3m 5f) recently. Jumps well and loves heavy ground.
ACD GAS LINE BOY
Jumped well and outstayed Emperor’s Choice at Haydock, after having to improve 10lb in order to land repeat win in three-miler at Exeter earlier last month. He did.
AC BENVOLIO
Lazy sort, but plenty of stamina in the blood (grandson of The Parson). Beat Midnight Prayer and Gas Line Boy at Newbury a year ago.
Disappointed sole run back when he’d been prepared to win a race the part-owner sponsors. But stable was second last year with Hawkes Point and Sam Twiston-Davies rides this younger horse, with blinkers now applied.
B GLENQUEST
Poor strike-rate (2-24 chases) but in first six in 11 consecutive races, still standing. Veteran now and high in the handicap, despite bottom spot in this company.
CDE HAWKES POINT
Beaten a head in this last year and only 2lb higher now. No show in Haydock Grand National Trial and in subsequent National itself. Return run behind Rebecca’s Choice.
CDE MIDNIGHT PRAYER
Beat Shotgun Paddy a neck at levels in 4m NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and 8lb better off today, plus a claim. Sire’s progeny prefer a decent surface. Needed the run when last of nine finishers in Hennessy Gold Cup.
CDE ONE IN A MILAN
Fourth last year, running a cracker from outside the handicap, after third in the Midlands Grand National. Visored for Grand National proper, was on the heels of the leaders second time round when he fell. Has had a prep run for this and is on my short-list for Aintree.
CE MONBEG DUDE
Won this Welsh National in 2013 on the back of a Grade-3 success on the course. Has had to race 10-18lb higher since but won at Cheltenham and seventh in the Grand National, looking a threat until weakening two out. Staying on fourth in the Hennessy last month.
CE MOUNTAINOUS
Winner of this race last year, and rated only 3lb higher. But modest form since, remote behind Emperor’s Choice in West Wales National after being well there three out, and fell in the Grand National.
CE REBECCA’S CHOICE
One-time Midlands National runner-up, beat Amigo, Hawkes Point and Mountainous in the Welsh Grand National trial three weeks back but will be 12 years old in a few days time and unlikely to repeat that feat.
CE SUMMERY JUSTICE
Stablemate of Emperor’s Choice. Likes heavy ground but has won only a veterans’ chase since April, 2012. Fifth in Scottish National off 7lb higher mark.
C BENBENS
Dolatulo, who beat this one earlier in the year, gave the form a boost when winning yesterday’s Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby, and the handicapper says Benbens has improved a stone this year.
C DARK GLACIER
A better horse on better ground, says Pembroke trainer Peter Bowen, who has booked two top jockeys today to try to keep the race in Wales: Josh Moore on this one, Daryl Jacob for Edmund Kean.
C MART LANE
Daryl Jacob could have ridden this one, a Listed winner for him at Market Rasen in September and another who prefers top of the ground.
C VICTOR‘S SERENADE
Pulled up behind Shotgun Paddy in the Warwick Classic and again in the Rehearsal Chase last time out. Sandwiched in between was defeat of Monbed Dude, Handy Andy and Benbens here at Chepstow but that was when he was fresh and he is otherwise unreliable.
VERDICT: If there is a possible ‘X’ Factor in the stats, it is that eight of the last 10 winners had had 10 or fewer chases; four of them only four each.
Still relatively unexposed are Amigo, Gas Line Boy (10 chases each), Hawkes Point (9), Victors Serenade (8), One In A Milan and Benbens (7 each), Midnight Prayer, Woodford County and Benvolio (6 each), Shotgun Paddy (5) and Edmund Kean (4).
Midnight Prayer (11.5 on BETDAQ early mouse) has to be thrown in here, 13lb better – if you include Tom Bellamy’s claim – for a neck with Shotgun Paddy on the form of their NH Chase (4m) duel at Cheltenham.
That puts a class horse into the bottom half of the handicap, where his biggest headache might be Benvolio (offers of 12.5) , who has the beating of him at these weights on Newbury form of a year or so ago. One In A Milan (18.5) is the sort to be staying on into a place, and Woodford County could improve into it.
ORDER-IN: 1 Midnight Prayer, 2 Benvolio, 3 One In A Milan, 4 Woodford County
CHIPS ARE DOWN FOR KEMPTON COWARD
12.40 Kempton It’s an old firm clash, Nicky Henderson, with Bivouac carrying the penalties, versus Paul Nicholls, going for a four-timer in the race when he saddles San Benedeto.
Ironically, it’s Nicholls who has shown that 11st 8lb can be carried (the last two years running, in fact). Favourites have won five times in a row, but which one will be favourite? On BETDAQ exchange betting, that’s your decision!
1.10 Kempton (Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase) Another Nicholls v Henderson contest, which Nicholls (Vibrato Valtat) won last year but for which Henderson has form figures since 2006 of 131112, including with Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig, both out of the Lambourn yard’s top drawer.
However, Henderson today relies on Grandouet, who was beaten 10 lengths by the Nicholls winner last season on deep ground, and is past the age for winning this.
Another possible contender here, God’s Own, was out of sight behind Nicholls’ Dodging Bullets in the Tingle Creek at Sandown earlier this month, failing to hold his novice form with Balder Succes.
We’re back to novice company here but I believe that Vibrato Valtat would be unbeaten over fences this season, had he been put into the Arkle Trial at Cheltenham sooner. He reversed the form with the winner on the last day.
1.40 Kempton (Desert Orchid Chase) Winners of this who have gone on to the Champion Chase are 12141 in the title contest at Cheltenham, including star names like Voy Por Ustedes and, last year, Sire De Grugy.
We’re talking winner or second in the Tingle Creek coming on to take this, but we have only the third, fourth and fifth from that Sandown contest this year, Hinterland (first-time hood; has burst blood-vessels), Balder Succes (disappointing, as was the other joint-fav God’s Own) and Third Intention.
Hinterland defeated both Balder Succes and Grandouet as a novice and, assuming that his problems have been sorted, should come out on top again, but I cannot see him as a champion chaser.
2.15 Kempton Cowards Close might be a false favourite. He ended last season being beaten by an animal that has won no other race in two years. He started this season third to Benbane Head, which leaves him something to find with Ballinvarrig.
Silver Commander is a nearly horse; Shangani needs a bog; Cantlow has to give weight all round; Wings Of Smoke has been absent 210 days.
The most likely winners are Loose Chips (8.2 on BETDAQ this morning), who has won at the meeting for the last two years and will have been ‘got up’ for this race, and Tales Of Milan (7.2), the progressive front-runner who is still only 4lb higher than his hurdles mark, as he goes for a hat-trick here.
UXIZANDRE TO PASS HIS CHAMPION TEST
1.20 Leopardstown This race is a kingmaker, with past winners Moscow Flyer, Big Zeb, Golden Silver, Sizing Europe and last year Benefficient.
But Bennefficient was different. The winner of this usually needs another season to excel at Cheltenham but he went straight on to victory in the Golden Miller Novices Chase at the festival in March.
A horse winning this for the first time would normally be seven or eight. Uxizandre is only six but one of the favourites for the Champion Chase and currently a similar price to Ballycasey, should they meet again in the Ryanair.
Both markets depend on what wins at Kempton this afternoon and some old lines to form – like Balder Succes’s defeat of Simply Ned at Aintree – will be ironed out ready for a champion to wear his new suit at Cheltenham.
Simply Ned was runner-up to Uxizandre at the festival venue last month, with the subsequent Tingle Creek winner, Dodging Bullets, only third. So, at this stage, Uxizandre looks ‘the one most likely to.’
1.50 Leopardstown (Future Champions Novice Hurdle) Like the previous race, this one usually produces a champion winner two years on (Hurricane Fly and Jezki most recently), with Nichols Canyon odds on here to maintain the record of four-year-olds (7-4) over five-year-olds, in the shape of Sub Lieutenant.
2.55 Leopardstown (PP Chase) Eight of the last 11 winners came from the bottom half of the handicap, 10st 8lb or lower. Groody Hill, third to the ill-fated Balbriggan in the Troytown, is a pound above the threshold, well compensated for that by the presence of A P McCoy taking over from a claimer and first-time blinkers.
He strictly shouldn’t beat the Troytown runner-up, Owega Star, while Back Off Mate (4th that day) and Vasco Du Mee (5th) are breathing down his neck at the revised weights.
While Owega Star and Back Off Mate have had all their success over shorter, Vasco Du Mee has since proved that he stays further (3rd in the Porterstown, 3m 5f at Fairyhouse), so we can expect a more forceful ride from Davy Condon. I’m taking Foxrock to chase home Vasco Du Mee and Groody Hill, despite his big weight.
OLD GUARD LOOKING THE LEAST EXPOSED
1.55 Chepstow (Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle) The Alan King trained Franchoek and Walk On both went on from winning this to go close in the Triumph Hurdle, and his Karezak (swapping blinkers for visors) is top rated here.
Karezak was the ‘moral’ when, giving 6lb, he was beaten only a neck by debutant Old Guard at Newbury, though he had the benefit of previous racing. Earlier, Karezak – a bit of a character on the Flat – had beaten Golden Doyen over today’s CD.
But that was on good-to-soft ground. Stamina-laden Golden Doyen had won a Triumph Hurdle Trial on the soft. Clearly there’s very little between them and only 1.6 points separated the three on BETDAQ this morning. Old Guard is obviously the least exposed horse but it’s a race in which to follow the market.
2.35 Chepstow (Welsh Grand National, see above)
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless otherwise stated and except lays)
BET 12pts win (nap) UXIZANDRE (1.20 Leopardstown)
LAY 3pts GRANDOUET and BET 11pts win VIBRATO VALTAT (1.10 Kempton)
BET 12pts win HINTERLAND (1.40 Kempton)
LAY 3pts COWARDS CLOSE and BET 5pts win TALES OF MILAN and 4pts win LOOSE CHIPS (2.15 Kempton)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50 points): 5pts win MIDNIGHT PRAYER, 4.5pts win BENVOLIO and 2.5pts win and place ONE IN A MILAN (2.35 Chepstow)
BET 3.5pts win GROODY HILL, and 1.5pts win and place VASCO DU MEE (2.55 Leopardstown)
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