Miami Dolphins (6-4, 6-4 ATS) @ Denver Broncos (7-3, 5-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Denver -7 (47.5)
Significant Injuries
Miami: G Daryn Colledge (questionable– back), RB Lamar Miller (questionable– shoulder), TE Charles Clay (doubtful– knee), CB Cortland Finnegan (doubtful– ankle), LB Jonathan Freeney (out– hamstring)
Denver: TE Julius Thomas (questionable– ankle), TE Virgil Green (questionable- calf), RB Montee Ball (out– foot), RB Ronnie Hillman (out– foot)
Recent Trends
Miami is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. AFC opponents
Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Miami is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Denver is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
Denver has won 5 consecutive home games
The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 5-1 in Miami’s last 6 road games
The UNDER is 5-0 in Miami’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 5-1 in Denver’s last 6 home games
The OVER is 6-1 in Denver’s last 7 games overall
Three reasons to back Miami
1. The Dolphins are one of the NFL’s hottest teams, having won 4 of their past 5 games despite three of those games coming against teams with winning records. Their last two losses came against Green Bay and Detroit, teams with a combined record of 14-6, and those losses came by 7 combined points, so you can see why the 7-point number here feels a bit high.
2. Denver has been badly overvalued this season and that was never more evident than last week, when they were made an 8-point favorite in St. Louis and proceeded to lose the game by 15 points. It was the Broncos’ second double-digit loss in their past 3 games and it seemed to hint at bigger problems on the offensive side of the ball, problems that could be exploited by a Miami defense that ranks 2nd in the league in yards allowed and surrenders just 18 points per game.
3. The Miami offense has been rolling in recent weeks, producing 27.2 points per game over their past 7 contests. This week they’ll face a Denver defense that has surrendered 82 combined points in their last 3 games, so the Dolphins should be able to light up the scoreboard once again.
Three reasons to back Denver
1. After three straight road games the Broncos return home this week, where they’re 5-0 this season and have averaged a staggering 34.6 points per game. All five of their home wins have come by 7 points or more and that home schedule has included some of the league best teams, teams like Indianapolis, Kansas City, Arizona, and San Francisco. It would be quite surprising, then, if Miami were able to stay within 7 on Sunday.
2. The Denver offense is a well-oiled machine that is averaging 29.3 points per game this season despite nagging injury issues. Quarterback Peyton Manning is the reigning MVP and possibly the best to ever play the position, and his counterpart on Sunday, Miami’s Ryan Tannehill, is a converted college receiver who struggles identifying blitzes and does not throw a good deep ball. Who do you want to trust with your money this week?
3. The Dolphins have a run-first offense– they rank 6th in rush yards per game but 22nd in passing– and this week they have a nightmarish matchup against a Denver defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL against the run, surrendering just 73.4 yards per game on the ground. If the Broncos are able to shut down the Miami rushing attack and this game turns into a Ryan Tannehill vs. Peyton Manning shootout, Dolphins bettors are in trouble.
Prediction
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