St. Louis Rams (4-6, 4-6 ATS) @ San Diego Chargers (6-4, 5-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: San Diego -6 (43.5)
Significant Injuries
St Louis: TE Jared Cook (questionable– back), TE Cody Harkey (questionable– quadricep), DT Alex Carrington (out– knee), CB Lamarcus Joyner (out– groin), CB Marcus Roberson (out– ankle), WR Damian Williams (out– hamstring)
San Diego: C Rich Ohrnberger (questionable– ankle), S Jahleel Addae (questionable– concussion), DT Ryan Carrethers (out– elbow)
Recent Trends
St. Louis is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win
St. Louis is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games
San Diego has won 7 of their last 8 home games
San Diego is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 6-2 in St. Louis’ last 8 home games
The UNDER is 3-1 in St. Louis’ last 4 games overall
The UNDER is 4-2 in San Diego’s last 6 games overall
The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back St. Louis
1. The Rams have been giant killers lately, notching wins over Seattle, San Francisco, and Denver over the past 5 weeks, and San Diego probably shouldn’t be considered a “giant” after losing 3 of their past 4 games and failing to cover in 5 straight. The Rams have simply been better than the Chargers in recent weeks, but San Diego’s hot start this season (combined with St. Louis’ poor start) lingers in the minds of bettors and oddsmakers, resulting in the wholly inappropriate 6-point number.
2. St. Louis has turned back to veteran Shaun Hill at quarterback and that certainly looked like the right move last week, as Hill led the Rams to a 15-point win over the heavily favored Denver Broncos. On Sunday Hills will face a San Diego defense that has surrendered 23 points or more in 4 of its past 5 games, so he has a great opportunity to build on his recent success.
3. Philip Rivers is banged up and the Chargers have been awful on offense in recent weeks, producing just 11 points per game over their last 4 contests. The St. Louis defense, on the other hand, has found its stride and has been dominant of late. Last week the smothered the high-powered Denver offense and you can be sure they’ll be coming after the gimpy Rivers on Sunday. It could be a long, long day for the San Diego offense.
Three reasons to back San Diego
1. The Chargers have been better than the Rams this season in every measurable way: they have a superior record, they score more points, they allow fewer points, and they’ve performed better against the spread. Plus, losing by more than 6 wouldn’t be anything unusual for the Rams, as 5 of their 6 losses have come by 6 points or more.
2. The Rams have a dreadful offense that ranks 29th in total yards per game and 27th in points scored. They have little chance of success against the excellent San Diego defense, a unit that ranks in the top-half of the league in every major statistical category and is surrendering just 19.2 points per game.
3. Philip Rivers is one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, while St. Louis’ Shaun Hill is a career backup who is at best a “game manager” and at worst a clear impediment to winning. That would be fine, except Rivers has a better running game at his disposal (especially now that Ryan Mathews is back) and will be facing a much worse defense. Who do you want to trust with your money?
Prediction
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