While many generally despise New England and Bill Belichick, at least they are ruthless. They don’t let up. They put their size 12s on an opponent’s throat and kick them in the head with their other boot. You know what you are going to get with them. You have confidence that they will run up the score – it’s how the game should be played.
Houston are boring. They are not ruthless. They may be equally efficient, but they only ever seem to do enough. They are the anti-Patriots, a team who chloroform opponents to sleep. Dull as ditchwater.
In the early hours of Tuesday, the Texans travel to New York to take on Rex Ryan’s New York Jets.
The Jets are 9-point underdogs on the BETDAQ handicap – the first time they have been home dogs of more than a touchdown in the Ryan era.
Accusations of a defence quitting in the second half of a 34-0 home defeat by San Francisco last week may not sit well with Gang Green, but that’s exactly how it appeared. They had already lost cornerback Darrelle Revis for the season – which changes the whole dynamic of their defence – and they came out of the game with their other star player, receiver Santonio Holmes, sidelined with a foot injury for the rest of the year.
Houston’s defence appears equally as hard-nosed as San Francisco’s. Last week, Jets’ quarterback Mark Sanchez completed just 13 of 29 passes and the Jets converted just two of 15 third-down attempts. Without Holmes, this makes Houston’s task a little easier.
The Texans are playing the most efficient football in the league right now. Only Miami (who played them hard before gifting them turnovers) in their first game, and Denver (with a late rally) really tested them on their path to a perfect 4-0 record.
The Jets are unlikely to offer such a test – at least according to the line-makers.
To some, though, this looks a fine example of a handicapping ‘swing’ game.
The rule is simple: Team A wins handily one week and Team B loses heavily. If they face each other the following week, the best option is often to back the underdog with the points.
The theory is that Team B (in this case New York Jets) are likely to work harder on the things they got wrong and use their embarrassment as a motivational tool, while Team A (Houston) could take their rivals lightly.
It is surprising how often the swing system has paid off, with underdogs given eight points or more keeping within the handicap 67 per cent of the time in the past 17 years when their combined margin of victory and defeat was above 48 points.
With Houston tonking Tennessee 38-14 last week, the margin of victory (24 points) and Jets’ defeat (34 points) totals 58 points.
However, you simply have to go against the basic principles of handicapping on this occasion. The Jets really are that bad at the moment and the Texans are Super Bowl calibre.
Heavyweight coaches Rex Ryan and offensive coordinator Tony Sparano will no doubt have been in the film room trying to figure out a gameplan to stop the Texans. Since we should feel sorry for them as they try to arrange the deckchairs on the Titanic, and since they need a larger door than most to get into the film room, this edition of the Musical Interlude is dedicated to them…
The Houston attack is intriguing, though. They rank 14th in yards but 2nd in points scored. Neither have they been that efficient in the running game. Although Arian Foster has an average of 95 yards per game, he is only managing 3.7 yards per carry, largely in part due to the change of blockers in front of him and the loss of Joel Dreessen who was an excellent blocking tight end.
This might be something to look out for as the season progresses.
However, they should not have too much trouble with the Jets on the ground, as they rank 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed (172.8 per game), 32nd in rushing touchdowns allowed (seven), 28th in yards per carry allowed (4.9) and tied for 30th place in 20+ yard rushes allowed (five). The Jets have given up big performances to the opposing running back nearly every week this season.
Ryan may have to gamble and stick eight or nine men near the line of scrimmage (or ‘the box’), yet that didn’t appear to help when Revis was fit, so the defensive guru has a major challenge on his hands.
But for all the talk about the vaunted Houston defence, a critical eye can see that they may have problems of their own against the run. While they have managed to restrict rushers to less than 100 yards this season, they have given up 4.3 yards per carry. Because they have piled up the points, opponents have to abandon the running game in a bid to catch up by passing the ball.
And, aside from Peyton Manning, look at the quarterbacks they have faced: Ryan Tannehill (making his first NFL start), rabbit-in-the-headlights Blaine Gabbert and unproven Jake Locker (who was knocked out of the Tennessee game early). It’s hardly a Murderers’ Row of the passing elite.
Again, no team is perfect (aside from the 1972 Miami Dolphins) and this is a possible chink that teams will try to exploit as the season goes on.
This time the Texans face Sanchez, who has completed only 50% of his passes once this season. The Jets failed to score a touchdown in four pre-season games and despite blasting Buffalo for 48 points in the season opener (thanks in part to turnovers), as we saw last week, the Bills’ defence remains extremely vulnerable without any semblance of a pass rush (by the way, how’s that Mario Williams trade working out? Don’t say we didn’t warn you). In the three games since, the Jets have managed 33 points in total.
Obviously, there will be a clamour for back-up QB Tim Tebow. While there are some big fans of his down Jacksonville way, I’d sooner buy “Butters’ Creamy Goo” than drink the Tebow kool-aid. He may well give Houston some problems with his ability to run, but it is more likely that Ryan will stick with Sanchez before throwing Tebow to the wolves of the Miami defence on October 28.
Unless Houston commits three turnovers or more or the elements intervene, this should be the football equivalent of watching Big Brother. A boring, drawn-out affair but ultimately a routine win for the Texans, ‘swing’ game be damned.
Then again, $150 million was estimated to have changed hands on the result of the Green Bay/Seattle blown call debacle, and with the vast majority of money being placed on Houston, it would not surprise you if Vegas saw more rich pickings if the Texans fail to cover the spread.
Still, we should abide by the rule that good teams should be measured by their ability to throttle bad teams, not by their ability to eke out victories over similarly good teams. And the Jets, right now, are a very bad team.
It makes the Texans the bet of the week.
Suggestions:
Back – Houston -9
Twitter: @simonmilham
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