Another early London game means we’ll be in for 14 hours of football on this Week 7 Sunday, so it may be time to draw the shades, hook up the nacho IV, strap on the adult diaper and become one with the couch. Live the dream, in other words.
Of course, “the dream” isn’t complete without the rush of turning your keen insight into cold, hard cash, and so our job in the hours and days leading up to this glorious Sunday is to decide which of these games is worthy of our investment. It all gets started tonight, as the Seattle Seahawks travel to San Francisco to face the hated Niners in a game that feels more important than it probably should at this point in the season. Both teams are 2-4 and another loss would be difficult to recover from, especially in a division like the ultra-competitive NFC West. The ‘Hawks are currently installed as a 7-point favorite at BETDAQ, with the total set at 42.
This week’s slate is a little tricky in my opinion, as seven sub-.500 teams are listed as favorites and ten games feature point spreads of 4 points or fewer. Here are my selections:
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (NE -10, 48)
This number is hovering around 9 or 9.5 in Vegas, but BETDAQ and several other places have the Patriots listed as 10-point favorites at the time of this writing (Thursday afternoon), and I really feel like the Jets are a great value at that number. Look, I realize the Pats have been the league’s best team through six weeks of the season, but it’s not like they don’t have any weaknesses. Their defense is only average, especially in the secondary, where they’ve allowed four of the five quarterbacks they’ve faced this season (Brandon Weeden the lone exception) to throw for more than 240 yards. The Jets have the most dangerous passing attack they’ve had in years thanks to the addition of Brandon Marshall, whose re-emergence as an All Pro-level player has suddenly given the New York offense a dimension nobody thought it would have heading into the season. And don’t forget about Chris Ivory, who is running as well as any back in the NFL right now, and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who looked washed-up in Houston last year but is a totally different player now that’s he’s back in Chan Gailey’s offense. We haven’t even mentioned the New York defense, a unit that leads the NFL in both yards allowed and points allowed, or the fact that Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis played for New England last year and, in the words of Tom Brady, “has intimate knowledge of what we [the Patriots] do.” I’m not saying the Jets are going to win this one outright– we’re still talking about Tom Brady vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick, after all– but I look for a competitive game here. Take the points. Recommendation: New York +10 at 1.77
Cleveland Browns @ St. Louis Rams (StL -6, 41.5)
I’ve rode the Browns to profits in each of the past two weeks, but I believe the time has come to exit the train. Though I admit that when I first saw this line, I was thinking it may be too many points. After all, the Rams have produced 10 points or fewer in three of their five games, while the Browns haven’t been held below 20 since Week 1. Upon further inspection, though, I’ve come to expect a blowout here, and I’m now of the opinion that Cleveland’s recent “success” (and “success” deserves to be in quotations considering the Browns are 2-4 on the year) has blinded people to the reality of what this game is: a “get well, gain confidence” opportunity for the Rams. Make no mistake, this St. Louis team views itself as a playoff contender. They had a bye last week, which followed back-to-back road games against the two best teams in the NFC: Green Bay and Arizona. They’re now just a game back of the division-leading Cardinals in the loss column and this week they return home, as rested and healthy as they’ll be for the remainder of the season, to face the 2-4 Browns, a team that’s coming off a gut-wrenching overtime loss and– more importantly– a team that sports the NFL’s worst rushing defense. That’s right, the Browns have surrendered 149.8 rushing yards per game this season, worst in the league by a wide margin. Well, in case you haven’t heard there’s this guy in St. Louis named Todd Gurley. He’s a rookie whose NFL career consists of thee games and 55 carries… I hear he’s pretty good, though. In the words of renowned football philosopher Terrell Owens, “better getcha popcorn ready.” Recommendation: St. Louis -6 at 1.9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins (Was -3.5, 43)
There’s no shortage of turmoil in D.C., as quarterback Kirk Cousins is fighting for his job every week while head coach Jay Gruden continues to take heat for putting Cousins out there. Problem is, Gruden’s options are limited: he could turn to Colt McCoy, a career backup with limited arm strength, or Robert Griffin III, who Gruden has kept chained to the bench since losing all confidence in him (and witnessing Griffin seemingly lose confidence in himself). The Skins are viewed by most as a dysfunctional mess with a coach who’s on his way out, and that’s probably a pretty fair assessment. Does that mean they’ll have trouble with Tampa this week, though? A home game against the Bucs is a godsend for any offense, as only Chicago is surrendering more points per game than Tampa’s 29.6. And while some may point out that the “points allowed” number is skewed by rookie quarterback Jameis Winston routinely handing the opposition points with his horrid play, that argument shouldn’t make you feel any better about a Tampa bet. Truth is, Winston is one of the few quarterbacks who has been objectively worse than Kirk Cousins this season, and he’ll be facing a Washington defense that ranks 8th in the NFL against the pass. The Skins won’t let this one get away. Recommendation: Washington -3.5 at 2.02
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (SD -3.5, 46.5)
Jack Del Rio has done a nice job in Oakland, as the Raiders have been competitive in every game since their Week 1 blowout loss to Cincinnati. And they’re generally a good bet in San Diego, covering in five of their last six opportunities. Why, then, do I feel like this is the week when it will become crystal clear to all that, despite obvious improvement, the Raiders are headed for double-digit losses once again? Maybe it’s because I expect Philip Rivers, fresh off a 500-yard performance (!) in a loss to Green Bay, to absolutely obliterate an Oakland secondary that is allowing a whopping 299.2 pass yards per game this season (31st of 32 teams). Derek Carr should have some success of his own against the leaky San Diego defense, but can he outduel Rivers on the road in a must-win game for both teams? No, I don’t believe he can. The Chargers have covered just once in their last 12 games against AFC opponents, making it a bit difficult to trust them in this (or any) situation, but I’d advise you to overcome your fears and plop down a fat bet on them here. They should get the job done. Recommendation: San Diego -3.5 at 1.86
2015 Record– 14-10
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