Eight teams remain and the field will be cut in half after this weekend. Yes, it’s the Divisional Round of the 2015 playoffs, two days of must-watch television for NFL fans and bettors alike. Here’s a few bits of information that may be of interest to those of you still deciding where to invest your money:
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (NE -7, 47.5)
– This game has a familiar feel, doesn’t it? These teams have met in the postseason in 4 of the past 6 years, with the most recent edition coming in the Divisional Round two years ago, a game that featured the same venue, same coaches, same quarterbacks, and nearly the same line as this week’s meeting. The Pats closed as an 8-point favorite back then but lost the game by 15 points, as Baltimore went on to win the Super Bowl. This week New England has been installed as a 7-point favorite and the visiting Ravens have seen the majority of the public action at sportsbooks that report such things.
– Since 2000 the Patriots have compiled an impressive 12-3 record in home playoff games, but two of those 3 losses have come against the Ravens. In that same time frame New England leads all NFL teams with 18 playoff wins, while Baltimore is second with 15.
– In Joe Flacco’s last 7 playoff games he has thrown 17 touchdown passes and just one interception while leading his team to a 6-1 record. And here’s a good little trivia nugget that may win you a friendly bet: what quarterback has the most road playoff wins in NFL history (as a starter)? The answer, of course, is Joe Flacco, with seven.
– Baltimore has covered in 6 consecutive playoff games, while New England is 3-10 ATS (against the spread) in their last 13 postseason contests. The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams.
– The most one-sided matchup of this game appears to be the New England passing attack vs. the Baltimore secondary. The Pats hover around the top of the league in all the passing stats and they’re led by Tom Brady, a man with more postseason wins (18) than any quarterback in NFL history. This season Brady threw for 4,109 yards and 33 touchdowns, and this week he’ll be going up against a Ravens defense that ranks 23rd in pass yards allowed and surrendered 334 yards to Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger last week.
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (Sea -10.5, 39.5)
– This will be the fourth time these teams have met in the past three years, with the most recent meeting coming in Week 8 of this season. The previous three games have all been played in Carolina, they’ve all been decided by 5 points or fewer, they’ve all been extremely low-scoring, with the total points scored never exceeding 28, and the Seahawks have won all three times.
– The Panthers have been road warriors in the playoffs, covering in 5 of their past 6 opportunities. However, they didn’t play very well on the road this season, winning only three times and producing 21 points or fewer five times. The Seahawks were 7-1 at home this season and have covered in 5 of their past 7 home playoff games.
– Seattle leads the NFL in total defense, passing defense, and points allowed (15.9 ppg). They rank 3rd against the run. In other words, there’s absolutely no argument about which team has the league’s best defense. The Panthers rank 16th in total offense, 19th in points scored (21.2 ppg), and they produced 21 points or fewer in 11 of their 16 regular-season games. On paper, this is a clear mismatch.
– Carolina is the only team in NFL history to have gone more than two months (during the season) without a win and still make the playoffs. During their losing streak their quarterback, Cam Newton, rode an unfortunate streak of his own, throwing an interception in 8 consecutive games. However, over the team’s last 4 games Newton has thrown 7 touchdown passes and just 2 interceptions, and the Panthers haven’t lost since November.
– The Carolina defense struggled mightily early in the season but they’ve straightened it out and have been dominant lately, surrendering just 11.8 points per game over their last 5 contests. However, one of their top players– run-stuffing tackle Star Lotulelei– will be forced to miss this week’s game after undergoing foot surgery. Lotulelei has tallied 11 tackles and 2 sacks in the team’s last two games, and he’ll be sorely missed against a Seattle offense that leads the league in rushing.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (GB -6, 53)
– Something’s gotta give in this game– the Cowboys are a perfect 8-0 on the road this season, with six of their wins coming by 7 points or more, while Green Bay has won all 8 of their home games. And not only have the Packers been winning at Lambeau, they’ve been doing it in spectacular fashion, averaging nearly 40 points per game and notching five double-digit victories.
– Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the favorite for league MVP and probably the most important player in Sunday’s game, is battling a calf injury that may be worse than initially thought. On Friday ESPN reported that Rodgers had a slight tear in his calf muscle, not merely a “strain.” Rodgers will play in Sunday’s game, but it’s unclear how close to 100% healthy he’ll be. In Green Bay’s last game Rodgers had to leave the game in the first half due to the injury, only to return and lead the Packers to a 10-point victory.
– Though Dallas has played well on the road this season, they’ve been a terrible bet in road playoff games over the past few years, covering just once in their last 6 opportunities. The Packers, meanwhile, are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games. The home team has covered in 9 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams.
– The Cowboys rank 8th in rushing defense but 26th against the pass, which could be problematic when facing a Green Bay offense that features one of the league’s top passing attacks. Of course, the Packers have their own matchup problems on defense, as they surrender nearly 120 rushing yards per game and Dallas ranks 2nd in the NFL in rushing offense.
– The weather could play a major role in Sunday’s game, as sub-freezing temperatures are expected at the Frozen Tundra. That will surely conjure up memories of the last time these teams played a postseason game at Lambeau Field: the year was 1966, the wind chill was 46 below zero, and Bart Starr scored on a 1-yard touchdown run with 13 seconds remaining to win the game that will forever be known as the Ice Bowl.
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (Den -7, 54)
– These teams met in Denver back in Week 1 and the line was nearly identical, with the Broncos closing as an 8-point favorite. That game saw Denver dominate for over 3 quarters, holding a 31-10 lead with less than 10 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter, before an Andrew Luck-led rally brought the Colts within a touchdown. The Broncos wound up winning the game 31-24, though Indianapolis had the ball with a chance to even the score when time expired.
– The Colts are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams, though they’ve only covered once in their last 6 games against teams with winning records. The Broncos have been a losing postseason bet in the Peyton Manning era, covering once in their last 5 playoff games.
– Denver is 8-0 at home this year and 22-2 at Mile High since Peyton Manning joined the team prior to the 2012 season. Manning has thrown for an NFL-record 6,589 yards in 23 career playoff games, but he sports a mediocre 11-12 record in those games. His counterpart on Sunday, Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck, has only four games of playoff experience under his belt, but he’s averaged an astounding 384.5 pass yards in those games.
– Manning spent the first 14 years of his career in Indianapolis, re-writing the franchise’s record book and winning the Super Bowl following the 2006 season. He has faced the Colts twice since joining the Broncos, splitting the two games while throwing for 655 yards and 6 touchdowns.
– Denver running back C.J. Anderson led the NFL with 648 rushing yards over the final 6 weeks of the season, and he’ll be facing an Indianapolis defense that has surrendered 126.2 rushing yards per game over their last 5 contests. The Broncos are 12-0 this season when they rush for at least 88 yards.
