PLAYOFF PICTURE– Week 12
Through 11 weeks the NFL’s playoff race is still a muddled mess, as 21 of the league’s 32 teams are currently within 1 game of a playoff spot and the Oakland Raiders are the only team to have already been mathematically eliminated. Here’s the situation as it stands now:
AFC
Division Leaders
East- New England (8-2)– The Pats have firm control of the AFC East once again, with a 2-game lead on Miami and a 3-game cushion over Buffalo. They also the favorites to secure home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs after picking up wins over fellow contenders Denver and Indianapolis.
North- Cincinnati (6-3-1)– The Bengals looked like the NFL’s best team over the first three weeks of the season but then fell into a mysterious funk, winning just twice in their next six games and losing three times by 21 points or more. They seemed to snap out of it last week, though, when they went to New Orleans and thrashed the Saints in the Superdome, never an easy task. Still, many find it difficult to fully “buy in” on Cincinnati given Andy Dalton’s playoff history and the aforementioned blowout losses the Bengals have suffered.
South- Indianapolis (6-4)– The Colts have been impressive in several wins this season and they have the NFL’s best offense, a unit that leads the league in both yards per game and points per game. However, they now lead the Texans by just 1 game in the division and their defense has surrendered a staggering 133 points in their last three games.
West- Denver (7-3)– The Broncos are actually tied with Kansas City atop the division but they currently hold the tiebreaker by virtue of their Week 2 win. They have to travel to Arrowhead to face the Chiefs in Week 13, though, so the West is still very much up in the air. You would have said that Denver was the clear favorite until their puzzling performance in Week 11, when they produced just 7 points in a loss to the lowly St. Louis Rams.
Wild Cards
Kansas City (7-3)– The Chiefs have been red-hot of late, winning 5 straight games and 7 of their past 8. They’re in good position to pick up a Wild Card berth, but I’m sure they still have their sights set on supplanting Denver atop the West, as they should.
Pittsburgh (7-4)– The Steelers have had an up-and-down year and they don’t really fit the profile of a Super Bowl contender due to their struggles on defense, but they’ve won 4 of their past 5 games and would sneak into the playoffs if the season ended today. They could also end up winning the wide-open North, which would assure them a playoff game at home, where they’re 4-1 this season.
Top Contenders
Miami (6-4)– The Dolphins have steadily improved over the course of the season and should be taken seriously in playoff discussions. If they can find a way to beat Denver this week, you can rest assured they will be.
San Diego (6-4)– The Chargers have cooled after a red-hot start and now appear to be a longshot to secure a Wild Card berth despite their record. Philip Rivers is banged-up and the team has surrendered 23 points or more in 4 of their past 5 games.
Baltimore (6-4)– The Ravens are flying under the radar a bit and would miss the playoffs if the season ended today, but they’ve been excellent on both sides of the ball this year, ranking 7th in points scored and 5th in points allowed. They trail Cincinnati by just a half-game in the North and I don’t think anyone would be surprised if they overtook the Bengals by season’s end, though it should be pointed out that Cincinnati would hold the tiebreaker.
Cleveland (6-4)– The Browns have been disappointing on defense this season and no one would ever characterize their offense as “explosive”, but they’ve won 6 games and their remaining schedule is very favorable, so they should remain in the discussion for the next several weeks.
Buffalo (5-5)– The Bills suffered a tough loss in Miami last week and will now have to string together some wins to get back in the mix, but they’re certainly capable given their excellent defense, which ranks 8th in points allowed. Injuries to star tailbacks Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller have been difficult for the offense to overcome.
Houston (5-5)– The Texans can run the ball and they can stop the run, and if new quarterback Ryan Mallett proves to be an upgrade over Ryan Fitzpatrick they may show people that the South isn’t a “one-team division” after all.
NFC
Division Leaders
East- Philadelphia (7-3)– The Eagles are tied with Dallas atop the East but the teams still have to face each other twice, so this division will be decided on the field. Philly fans are surely anxious after watching their team absorb a 33-point beating at the hands of the Green Bay Packers last week.
North- Detroit (7-3)– The Lions and Packers are both 7-3 but Detroit’s Week 3 win means they currently hold the tiebreaker, though the two teams will meet again in Week 17. Despite the results of the Week 3 meeting, most NFL observers would be surprised if the Lions were able to hold off the Packers, who many regard as the best team in the NFC at the moment.
South- Atlanta (4-6)– The Falcons certainly haven’t looked like a playoff team this season, losing 5 consecutive games at one point and sputtering on both sides of the ball, but they’ve done enough to currently occupy the top spot in the dreadful NFC South, a division that’s so bad even 2-8 Tampa Bay is still a realistic contender. The Saints are also 4-6, so Atlanta’s Week 16 trip to New Orleans looms large in the division race.
West- Arizona (9-1)– The Cardinals have been the surprise of the league this season and at 9-1 they’re well-positioned to lock up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. However, the loss of starting quarterback Carson Palmer to a season-ending knee injury in Week 10 has some (ahem, me) pessimistic about their long-term prospects.
Wild Cards
Green Bay (7-3)– The Packers are playing as well as anyone in the NFC at the moment, winning 6 of their past 7 games and doing it in style, with five wins coming by 21 points or more. They’re currently tied atop the North with Detroit, but with Aaron Rodgers playing at MVP-level and a defense that’s held six opponents to 20 points or fewer, I’d be booking my playoff tickets if I lived in Green Bay.
Dallas (7-3)– The Cowboys and Eagles are both 7-3 and they’ll meet each other twice in the coming weeks, so Dallas has control of their playoff destiny. This season Cowboys fans have seen DeMarco Murray emerge as the league’s best running back and the defense outperform expectations, but the health of quarterback Tony Romo, who is playing with two cracked vertebrae, is a major question going forward.
Top Contenders
San Francisco (6-4)– With so many key defensive players missing time, it’s nothing short of amazing that the Niners have been able to cobble together a top-5 defense once again, but they have, and in recent weeks the offense has returned to their run-first identity. Two weeks ago people were shoveling dirt on the Jim Harbaugh era in San Francisco, but now the Niners are right back in the thick of the playoff race and the anti-Harbaugh talk has quieted considerably.
Seattle (6-4)– The defending champs have looked vulnerable at times this year, especially on offense, where Russell Wilson has struggled mightily in recent weeks. The defense is still playing at an elite level, though, and the ‘Hawks lead the NFL in rushing offense, so a late-season playoff push is a definite possibility. This week they have a critical home game against the 9-1 Arizona Cardinals.
